PITTSBURGH (vs. LA Chargers)
The Steelers come off a pair of clunkers and are facing a defense that's allowed the 4th-fewest points in the league. But this is a different offense at home. Year in and year out, the Steelers ...
... ... have been way better at Heinz Field. They've scored 41, 33 and 52 points in their last three home games this year, so even against a capable defense like the Chargers, Pittsburgh is very much in the mix for top-5 numbers. ... James Conner comes off a pair of down games. He ran for only 25 yards at Jacksonville and dropped what would have been the game-winning touchdown. He ran for only 53 yards at Denver, with a critical fumble. But nobody should be pushing the panic button. He's still the same back, and he'll probably put up top-5 numbers in this kind of game. Prior to this recent
This report is taken from today's Week 13 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 21 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... downturn, he averaged 108 rushing and 45 receiving yards in his previous five games, with 8 TDs. He's a runner, he's a pass catcher, and with how the Steelers move the ball, he ends up in the end zone often. The Chargers have a good defense, but they haven't been anything special against the run. Denver went into their stadium two weeks ago and ran for 108 yards and 3 TDs. A few weeks previously, both Seattle and Tennessee ran for over 150 yards against this defense. Conner should be very good. ... Ben Roethlisberger has thrown 5 interceptions in his last two games. Earlier he threw 3 interceptions at Cleveland. But get him at home, and he tends to be as good as anyone. Nine times in the last five years he's thrown at least 4 TDs, and all of those games have come at Heinz Field. In that span he's thrown 3 TDs 14 times, and nine of those came at home. The Chargers have a good pass defense; only seven teams have allowed fewer passing yards. But it's a defense that's been helped along by scheduling. Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, Derek Carr (twice), Baker Mayfield, Marcus Mariota, C.J. Beathard. How much should be taken from these games? The Chargers have played only three games against what you would call big-time passers, and all of those guys played just fine. Mahomes and Goff combined for 610 yards and 7 TDs. Russell Wilson passed for a modest 235 yards and 2 TDs, but Seattle was using a run-oriented scheme, rushing for 154. Roethlisberger should be just fine, as he almost always is at Heinz Field. Entering this season, Roethlisberger in his last 16 home games had averaged 325 passing yards, with 45 touchdown passes (almost 3 per game). Other than one poor game against the Ravens, that's how he's played at home again this season. ... With the way the Steelers tend to play at home, we're high on Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster. These guys are great receivers anyway, but their best numbers tend to come at Heinz Field. Brown hasn't been catching as many passes this year (he's averaging under 80 yards per game) but he's been scoring more consistently than ever before. He's caught 11 touchdowns, with at least one in all but two games. Smith-Schuster is averaging 16 more receiving yards; he's finished with more yards in six of the 11 games. But he hasn't been as reliable as a scorer. Smith-Schuster has caught only 4 touchdowns. ... Vance McDonald might miss this game with a hip injury. He was knocked out of the Denver game. He's long had problems staying healthy. He's been in the league for six years, and he's missed games every year. He was the only player in the league last year to miss games with four different injuries. We'll need to confirm later in the week, but for now we're assuming McDonald will sit out. That puts Jesse James in play as a possible fill-in tight end. He's not as mobile or dynamic, but the Steelers have a good chance of throwing 3 TDs in this game, making James more likely than other tight ends to catch a short flip around the end zone. A McDonald absence would also probably result in a lot more playing time for Ryan Switzer. Switzer had his most productive game of the season on Sunday, catching 6 passes for 67 yards. The Steelers haven't been able to get a third receiver established all year (they've also tried James Washington and Justin Hunter), and Switzer seems to have that role for now. The Steelers have been unsuccessfully trying to get Washington going all year, but he's been a flop. He's caught only 8 of the 25 passes thrown his way; he had a pivotal drop at Denver. ... We're ranking Chris Boswell as a middle-of-the-pack kicker. He's had an off year; only two teams have scored fewer points on kicks. Only five teams have allowed fewer kicking points than the Chargers, so on paper this is the 2nd-worst kicker matchup of the week, with a combined 127 points in 22 games (5.8 per game, on average). But the Steelers tend to play better at home, where they've scored at least 33 points in all but one game. With respect to what's happened in the past, it wouldn't be a surprise at all if Boswell were one of the top-5 kickers in Week 13. ... The Steelers Defense has a league-high 39 sacks, but it looks like only an average fantasy choice this week. Philip Rivers doesn't take many sacks, and he doesn't throw interceptions. In his last 27 games, he's thrown only 16 interceptions and taken only 37 sacks. Pittsburgh doesn't have a ball-hawking secondary; it's got only 6 interceptions.