CAROLINA (vs Atlanta)
At 6-8, the Panthers are starting to shut things down. They're not going to use Cam Newton in their last two games. But there's still some residual value here. Carolina plays better at home, where it's 5-2 (the only losses being games that they could have won against ...
... Seattle and New Orleans). And they're playing similarly struggling Atlanta. The Falcons are 5-9, and they've allowed more points than all but three teams. Middle-of-the-pack numbers are definitely possible. ... Christian McCaffrey looks like a possible top-5 back. He's been pretty awesome for the bulk of the year, averaging 70 rushing and 55 receiving yards, with 13 TDs. Not sure if he's interested in playing for numbers, but he needs 253 yards to reach a 2,000 for the season. A quarterback change may have some effect on the offense and how teams play against him, but ...
This report is taken from today's Week 16 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 22 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... here he's at home against a defense that's been struggling for most of the year. Atlanta ranks 25th against the run. The Falcons shut down David Johnson on Sunday, but they allowed over 130 yards in each of their previous five games. McCaffrey has gone over 100 total yards seven games in a row, and he should keep that streak going. ... Taylor Heinicke might prove to be an upgrade over Cam Newton. Seriously. Newton has been struggling for weeks, trying to play with an injured shoulder. Heinicke at 100 percent might actually help the passing game. Heinicke entered the league as an undrafted free agent, of course, but he's in the league for four years, working on his game. He played well enough in the preseason, nailing down the backup job by completing 24 of 36 passes for 323 yards, with 2 TDs (1 interception). He was a four-year starter at Old Dominion, completing 68 percent of his passes, with 132 touchdowns and only 39 interceptions. He doesn't run like Newton, of course, but he also appears to have above-average mobility. While attempting 85 passes in the last two preseasons (call it two-plus games of action) he's carried 13 times for 77 yards and a touchdown. He ran for 22 touchdowns in four years of college. With there being a lot of lesser quarterbacks in starting lineups right now, Heinicke reasonably might outproduce about 10 other starters this week. The matchup, however, isn't awesome. The Falcons rank 22nd in pass defense, but they've tightened things up some since getting scorched in a lot of their early-season games. In their last seven games, they've allowed an average of 215 passing yards, with 11 TD passes. We're thinking a projection of about 240 yards and 1-2 TDs makes sense. ... It takes a leap of faith with Heinicke, but we're slotting the pass catchers in their usual kind of places. We're not thinking the passing game will fall apart without Newton. Instead, the ability to throw downfield could now return to the offense. DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel are the starting receivers now. They'll probably each handle the ball on an end-around, and they've had some productive games. Samuel went for 80-plus receiving yards in back-to-back games before the debacle against the Saints. Before that game, he scored 6 TDs in his previous 10 games. Similarly, Moore averaged 69 yards in his seven games before New Orleans (albeit with just 1 TD). Moore and Samuel should be their starting receivers on opening day next year, and they'll want to continue to develop them. Jarius Wright is their slot receiver, but he's averaged only 25 yards per game, with 1 TD all year. Devin Funchess was previously starting, but he's been demoted into a spot-duty role. In each of the last three games, he's been 4th among the wide receivers in playing time. He's huge, and it seems like they bring him in mostly as a weapon to use in the red zone. ... Ian Thomas caught 14 passes in the Week 13-14 games, but he's a nominal tight end. He caught only 2 passes against New Orleans. Maybe they use him as a check-down option and he catches 4 balls, but he won't necessarily be a significant part of the offense. ... With Graham Gano (knee) on injured reserve, Chandler Catanzaro will be the kicker the final two weeks. He'll probably be a below-average scorer both weeks. With Cam Newton shelved for the year, the Panthers are going into preseason mode for their final two games. ... The Panthers Defense looks like a lesser option. It tends to play better at home, at least, but it's had problems generating a pass rush all year. Matt Ryan will take some sacks, but he's thrown only 6 interceptions in 14 games.
14 Reader Comments:
Scott O'Day
Dennis Salisbury
Dennis Salisbury
Dennis Salisbury
Ben Hogevoll
Ben Hogevoll
Dennis Salisbury
Richard Loppnow
Richard Loppnow
Richard Loppnow
Andy Richardson
Richard, Pittsburgh has very little shot at the No. 2 seed. They need Houston to lose twice (including home against Jacksonville, which I guess is possible). AND they need New England to lose at home against either the Bills or the Jets. Not impossible, but I were a Steelers fan I wouldn't get my hopes up.
John Evans
Andy Richardson
John Evans