L.A. RAMS (vs. San Francisco)
The Rams need to win this game; they'd lose a tie with the Bears (just one game behind) for the No. 2 seed and the first-round bye that comes with it. But that doesn't mean everyone will play. They proved ...
... fully capable of beating a lesser team without their best player a week ago, and that was on the road. Early guess is they'll do the same in this one. They blew out San Francisco in Week 7, 39-10. ... Some belief last Sunday morning that Todd Gurley would play, but either the team didn't like what they saw in warmups or never intended to play him. We're figuring they'll hold him out of this one, too, using C.J. Anderson in a workhorse role. Anderson barely played before being released by Carolina, but was great in a choice matchup last week (167 rushing yards and a touchdown at Arizona). That was the league's worst run defense, while ...
This report is taken from today's Week 17 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 19 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... San Francisco is a lot better (12th). Rams should lean heavily on Anderson anyway, but the matchup isn't quite as favorable. Not impenetrable; Seattle rushed for 168 yards against this defense in two of the last four weeks, and the Rams (behind Gurley and Malcolm Brown) went for 146 yards and 2 TDs in the earlier meeting. But not the doormat the Cardinals are. San Francisco has also allowed nearly three times as many touchdowns on passes (31) rather than runs (12); a much better matchup for the passing game. The backup is less certain; John Kelly carried 10 times for 40 yards last week, but that might have been because their other youngster, Justin Davis, was nursing a shoulder injury and didn't play. Anderson looks like the best choice. Gurley didn't practice on Wednesday. ... The 49ers have an above-average ranking against the pass (11th), but that's suspect. They've allowed 31 TD passes, which is 2nd-worst. But with the ground game dominating in the earlier meeting, Jared Goff attempted just 24 passes, completing 18 for 202 yards and 2 TDs. Very similar to his game in an easy win a week ago, actually (19 of 24 for 216 and 1) and probably a good starting point for the projection here. Goff has been struggling some, and while the Rams probably want to build his confidence back up, they also won't want to take any unnecessary chances against a lesser opponent. So probably lesser yardage numbers again from Goff; he's been under 220 in three of four. He's also thrown just 2 TDs in those games, although this is a spot where multiple scoring passes are in play. As noted, San Francisco has allowed 31 passing scores, including multiple scores 11 times. Goff threw for 292 yards and 3 TDs in his lone game against this defense a year ago. ... Robert Woods looks a little better than Brandin Cooks. After a big Week 16, Woods has 9 more catches, 53 more yards and a 7-4 scoring edge. He was 5 for 78 in the earlier meeting, while Cooks went 4 for 64 (but scored). We'll put Woods higher, but not a slam-dunk. Cooper Kupp missed that game, but Josh Reynolds caught only 1 pass for 19 yards. Reynolds has been hit-or-miss in that No. 3 role, with a couple of games with 5-6 catches for 70-80 yards, but three others where he totaled 7 for 99. On behalf of all these players, San Francisco has struggled covering wide receivers all along. Of the 31 TDs thrown against the 49ers, nearly three-quarters (23) have gone to wideouts. Sammy Watkins caught 2 TDs in the Rams' meaningful game against this defense a year ago (they rested starters in the Week 17 matchup). The Rams would probably prefer to get Woods and/or Cooks an early seat, but not until the game is well in hand, which those guys should be part of. ... Gerald Everett has taken on a larger role in the passing game lately. After not catching more than 3 passes in any of the first 11 games, he's caught 4, 5 and 5 the last three weeks. He hasn't gone over 50 yards in any game and 2 of his 3 TDs on the season came in the slugfest with Kansas City, but some PPR value there. Probably less likely to get an early seat than any of the wide receivers, too. ... Greg Zuerlein has double-digit kicking points in six of his ten games, including 13 in the earlier meeting. Rams are averaging 9.4, while San Francisco is allowing 7 per game. ... The Rams Defense looks like a top option. It's slightly above-average in sacks (38) and among the top 6 in both interceptions (15) and fumble recoveries (11). Down to its third-string quarterback, San Francisco is one of the 10 worst offenses in taking sacks (45) and one of the five worst in both interceptions (17) and lost fumbles (11). Back in Week 7 then-starter C.J. Beathard took 7 sacks and threw 2 interceptions, and the team lost 2 fumbles. Nick Mullens has taken only 14 sacks in seven games, but at least 3 in four of his last five, while also throwing 7 interceptions. With 19.5 sacks, Aaron Donald is just 3 away from Michael Strahan's record.