Yesterday we looked at the road teams in the Conference Championship games; today the home teams. First up the New Orleans Saints, who are favored by 3.5. That might not be high enough. Of the four teams playing this weekend, the Saints are by far the most likely to make it to Atlanta.

In the Sean Payton-Drew Brees Era, the Saints are 6-0 in home games. They beat the Rams 45-35 in the regular season, at one point leading 35-14. They were a little fortunate to get by Philadelphia last week, of course, but have won seven straight meaningful home games (excluding Week 17, when they rested a lot of starters). They scored over 40 in three of those games and 30-plus in two others. The Rams, meanwhile, lost two of their last four games to close out the season, and their defense has allowed 30-plus in five of the last nine games. Win or lose, it will be a surprise if the Saints don’t score in the 30s. With the game being played indoors (while the AFC game will have single-digit temperatures), New Orleans looks very likely to have the best offensive numbers of the week.

QUARTERBACK: Drew Brees looks very good. He’s one of the best ever, he’s at home (where he’s played his best ball, and where weather won’t be a factor), and he’s facing a suspect pass defense. The Rams ranked 19th in that regard, and probably aren’t that good. Playing in the NFC West, they played a quarter of their schedule against passing offenses that either didn’t (Seattle) or couldn’t (Arizona) throw very often, ranking 25th or worse in passing offense. If you did nothing more than toss out those games, the Rams allowed 288 passing yards per game, which is a bottom-5 number. Brees himself threw for 346 yards and 4 TDs against this defense. Those kind of totals are unlikely, as Brees wasn’t quite so productive down the stretch. In his last five, he reached 300 yards only twice and threw 2 TDs only once. That includes last week (301 and 2 versus Philadelphia); he struggled for portions of that game.

But most of Brees’ lesser games were on the road. At home, he’s thrown for over 300 yards in five of six, and thrown multiple touchdowns in seven of eight. In five of those games, he threw at least 3 TDs. The Rams, meanwhile, allowed multiple touchdown passes to virtually all of the top quarterbacks they faced: 22 TDs in seven games against Brees, Rivers, Cousins, Rodgers, Mahomes and Wilson twice. We’re putting Brees down for 310 yards and 2-3 TDs, with 3 more likely. Biggest concern is that New Orleans should also be able to run the ball effectively, reducing Brees’ need to do as much.

RUNNING BACK: It’s a one-two punch at running back, and Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram will be working against a statistically poor run defense. The Rams ranked 23rd against the run, allowing a league-worst 5.1 yards per attempt. But it’s not a complete pushover; Los Angeles allowed just 12 rushing scores, which is an above-average figure. And they did a really nice job against Ezekiel Elliott (20 carries for 47 yards) last week. Dallas punched in a couple of short touchdowns, but didn’t have a good game. The Rams could play things a little differently in that one – Dak Prescott isn’t Drew Brees – but New Orleans won’t dominate with the ground game.

In Week 9, Kamara carried 19 times for 82 yards and 2 TDs, Ingram 9 for 33. And the split was similar against Philadelphia last week: 16 for 71 for Kamara, 9 for 53 for Ingram. Should again be about a two-thirds to one-third split, with Kamara the superior option. He’ll also be a lot busier as a receiver. In the 11 games both played during the season, Kamara averaged 34 receiving yards, compared to 14 for Ingram (34-3 in the earlier meeting, with Kamara catching a touchdown, and 35-9 last week). Taysom Hill will sprinkle onto the field for a few carries; he had a 9-yard run in the earlier meeting and the huge conversion on a fake punt last week.

WIDE RECEIVER: Michael Thomas looks like the best wide receiver still playing. Brees was locked in on him last week (12 for 171, TD), and that connection was even bigger in Week 9 (12 for 211, with the game-clinching 72-yard touchdown) in the final minutes. The Rams didn’t have Aqib Talib for that one, but this isn’t a shutdown secondary. Both Amari Cooper (6 for 65, TD) and Michael Gallup (6 for 119) put up strong numbers against it last week. Rams allowed 20 TDs to wide receivers, and only six teams allowed more.

The No. 2 should be Ted Ginn; his 7 targets last week were more than twice as many as anyone behind Thomas but Alvin Kamara (4). Just 3 for 44, but Ginn was open for a long touchdown on the first play of the game (it was underthrown and intercepted). Ginn will probably see plenty of Marcus Peters, who will occasionally drop coverage. The other wideouts are bit players. TreQuan Smith had a couple of 100-yard performances during the season, both at home, but went over 30 yards in just one of his other games. He scored in the Week 9 meeting, at least. Keith Kirkwood caught 3 TDs, including a huge grab on fourth down against the Eagles last week. But he caught only 12 other passes in his nine games. With both players, they’ll need to score to pay off in a fantasy lineup.

TIGHT END: The Rams allowed 5 TDs to tight ends, and just 1 in their last six games. Benjamin Watson went for 62 yards and a touchdown against them in Week 9, but that looks like the last hurrah of his career. He didn’t reach 30 yards or score in any game after that. Josh Hill is primarily a blocker. He caught 3 passes last week, but those were checkdowns at the line (they went for just 7 yards). Hill’s only score came in Week 5.

KICKER: Wil Lutz should be the week’s top kicker. Saints are the most likely team to win, conditions won’t be a factor, and the Rams allowed most the kicking points during the season of any team still playing (just over 7 per game; everyone else allowed 6.8 or fewer).

DEFENSE / SPECIAL TEAMS: The Saints Defense has some potential for sacks. It had 49 during the season (5th) while Jared Goff took 33 – better than average, but worse than anyone still playing. New Orleans didn’t get him at all in the earlier meeting, however. He threw 12 interceptions, while the Saints had just 12, but he lost 5 fumbles (and the Saints recovered 12 of those, 4th-most). The Saints had an interception off Goff in Week 9. New Orleans used Alvin Kamara on kickoff returns last week, something they seldom did in the regular season, but he might not get many chances in this one (Greg Zuerlein puts most of his into the end zone).

Player projections are below; once all four teams have been analyzed, we'll see how the rankings shake out.

—Andy Richardson