Upcoming opponents are in place, so we can take an early look at strength of schedule for the 2019 season. And two teams that played in the conference championship games project to play the schedules that tie as the 2nd-easiest in the league.
Washington comes in at No. 1. Its opponents (for 2019) went a combined 119-135-2 in games last year. But that’s not a particularly compelling numbers. More typically, the team with the easiest schedule would come in about 10 games easiest. In the last 10 years (2009-2018) 58 teams have entered seasons projecting to play schedules easier than what we’re seeing from Washington.
Five teams tie for the No. 2 spot, and that group includes the Patriots and Rams. The rich get richer. Other teams in that easy-schedule group include the Bengals, Jets and Giants.
The Raiders, Broncos and Jaguars project to play the hardest schedules next year.
2019 STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (wins) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
Washington | 119 | 135 | 2 | .469 |
New England | 120 | 134 | 2 | .473 |
LA Rams | 120 | 134 | 2 | .473 |
Cincinnati | 119 | 133 | 4 | .473 |
NY Jets | 120 | 134 | 2 | .473 |
NY Giants | 120 | 134 | 2 | .473 |
Philadelphia | 121 | 133 | 2 | .477 |
Seattle | 121 | 132 | 3 | .479 |
Buffalo | 122 | 132 | 2 | .480 |
Cleveland | 123 | 131 | 2 | .484 |
New Orleans | 125 | 131 | 0 | .488 |
Baltimore | 125 | 127 | 4 | .496 |
Pittsburgh | 126 | 128 | 2 | .496 |
Detroit | 125 | 127 | 4 | .496 |
Miami | 127 | 127 | 2 | .500 |
Carolina | 128 | 127 | 1 | .502 |
LA Chargers | 127 | 126 | 3 | .502 |
Dallas | 128 | 126 | 2 | .504 |
Green Bay | 128 | 126 | 2 | .504 |
Arizona | 129 | 125 | 2 | .508 |
Tampa Bay | 130 | 126 | 0 | .508 |
San Francisco | 129 | 124 | 3 | .510 |
Minnesota | 130 | 124 | 2 | .512 |
Tennessee | 131 | 124 | 1 | .514 |
Atlanta | 132 | 123 | 1 | .518 |
Indianapolis | 132 | 123 | 1 | .518 |
Chicago | 131 | 121 | 4 | .520 |
Kansas City | 132 | 122 | 2 | .520 |
Houston | 135 | 121 | 0 | .527 |
Jacksonville | 136 | 120 | 0 | .531 |
Denver | 136 | 117 | 3 | .537 |
Oakland | 137 | 117 | 2 | .539 |
If you prefer to look not at wins & losses but instead points (this is fantasy football, after all, so we’re all more interested in offensive production, whether teams win or not) then the Ravens, Seahawks and Cardinals project to play the easiest schedules. But note that the Rams and Patriots also grade out in the top 6 in that format.
Kansas City, Houston and Oakland (again) project to have the three most difficult schedules.
2019 STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (points) | |
---|---|
Team | Points |
Baltimore | 24.67 |
Seattle | 24.58 |
Arizona | 24.30 |
San Francisco | 24.17 |
New England | 24.10 |
LA Rams | 23.97 |
Carolina | 23.86 |
Pittsburgh | 23.85 |
Cincinnati | 23.54 |
Cleveland | 23.52 |
New Orleans | 23.50 |
Jacksonville | 23.48 |
Buffalo | 23.39 |
NY Jets | 23.38 |
Tampa Bay | 23.27 |
Atlanta | 23.27 |
Chicago | 23.23 |
Detroit | 23.23 |
Washington | 23.21 |
Dallas | 23.17 |
LA Chargers | 23.16 |
Philadelphia | 23.11 |
NY Giants | 23.08 |
Tennessee | 23.07 |
Miami | 23.01 |
Minnesota | 22.91 |
Denver | 22.90 |
Indianapolis | 22.86 |
Green Bay | 22.63 |
Oakland | 22.49 |
Houston | 22.37 |
Kansas City | 21.74 |
Circling back to the point about Washington’s “easy” schedule not being as easy as what we typically see, below are the projected easiest schedules of the last 10 years. Nine teams come in a full 10 wins lighter than 2019 Washington.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (2009-2019) wins/losses | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | W | L | T | Pt |
2015 | Atlanta | 104 | 150 | 2 | .410 |
2009 | Chicago | 105 | 149 | 2 | .414 |
2015 | Indianapolis | 106 | 149 | 1 | .416 |
2015 | Houston | 106 | 148 | 2 | .418 |
2009 | Minnesota | 107 | 148 | 1 | .420 |
2017 | Indianapolis | 107 | 146 | 3 | .424 |
2015 | Tampa Bay | 108 | 146 | 2 | .426 |
2009 | Green Bay | 109 | 146 | 1 | .428 |
2013 | Denver | 110 | 146 | 0 | .430 |
2014 | Indianapolis | 110 | 146 | 0 | .430 |
2015 | New Orleans | 109 | 145 | 2 | .430 |
2009 | Pittsburgh | 110 | 144 | 2 | .434 |
2015 | Carolina | 111 | 145 | 0 | .434 |
2015 | Tennessee | 111 | 144 | 1 | .436 |
2009 | Baltimore | 111 | 143 | 2 | .438 |
2014 | Tennessee | 112 | 144 | 0 | .438 |
2017 | Jacksonville | 111 | 142 | 3 | .439 |
2017 | Tennessee | 111 | 142 | 3 | .439 |
2009 | Arizona | 113 | 143 | 0 | .441 |
2011 | Arizona | 113 | 143 | 0 | .441 |
2014 | Houston | 113 | 143 | 0 | .441 |
2009 | San Francisco | 113 | 142 | 1 | .443 |
2010 | Arizona | 114 | 142 | 0 | .445 |
2009 | Cleveland | 114 | 140 | 2 | .449 |
2010 | St. Louis | 115 | 141 | 0 | .449 |
2017 | Cincinnati | 115 | 141 | 0 | .449 |
2010 | San Diego | 116 | 140 | 0 | .453 |
2010 | Seattle | 116 | 140 | 0 | .453 |
2012 | New England | 116 | 140 | 0 | .453 |
2014 | Jacksonville | 116 | 140 | 0 | .453 |
2017 | Minnesota | 115 | 139 | 2 | .453 |
2017 | Pittsburgh | 115 | 139 | 2 | .453 |
2018 | Houston | 116 | 140 | 0 | .453 |
2017 | Houston | 115 | 138 | 3 | .455 |
2017 | Seattle | 115 | 138 | 3 | .455 |
2009 | Seattle | 117 | 139 | 0 | .457 |
2010 | San Francisco | 117 | 139 | 0 | .457 |
2011 | Baltimore | 117 | 139 | 0 | .457 |
2013 | San Diego | 117 | 139 | 0 | .457 |
2016 | Green Bay | 117 | 139 | 0 | .457 |
2013 | Indianapolis | 117 | 137 | 2 | .461 |
2014 | Baltimore | 118 | 138 | 0 | .461 |
2016 | Chicago | 118 | 138 | 0 | .461 |
2016 | NY Giants | 118 | 138 | 0 | .461 |
2017 | Baltimore | 117 | 137 | 2 | .461 |
2015 | Jacksonville | 118 | 137 | 1 | .463 |
2009 | St. Louis | 119 | 137 | 0 | .465 |
2009 | Cincinnati | 119 | 137 | 0 | .465 |
2011 | San Francisco | 119 | 137 | 0 | .465 |
2014 | Cleveland | 119 | 137 | 0 | .465 |
2014 | NY Giants | 119 | 137 | 0 | .465 |
2016 | Cincinnati | 119 | 137 | 0 | .465 |
2016 | Dallas | 119 | 137 | 0 | .465 |
2016 | Detroit | 119 | 137 | 0 | .465 |
2018 | Tennessee | 119 | 137 | 0 | .465 |
2009 | Detroit | 119 | 136 | 1 | .467 |
2015 | Dallas | 119 | 136 | 1 | .467 |
2017 | Arizona | 118 | 135 | 3 | .467 |
2010 | New Orleans | 120 | 136 | 0 | .469 |
2012 | Green Bay | 120 | 136 | 0 | .469 |
2013 | Oakland | 120 | 136 | 0 | .469 |
2014 | Pittsburgh | 120 | 136 | 0 | .469 |
2014 | New Orleans | 119 | 135 | 2 | .469 |
2014 | Cincinnati | 120 | 136 | 0 | .469 |
2016 | Philadelphia | 120 | 136 | 0 | .469 |
2017 | Cleveland | 119 | 135 | 2 | .469 |
2017 | Detroit | 119 | 135 | 2 | .469 |
2019 | Washington | 119 | 135 | 2 | .469 |
—Ian Allan