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Strength of schedule

Early look at strength of schedule for 2019 season

Upcoming opponents are in place, so we can take an early look at strength of schedule for the 2019 season. And two teams that played in the conference championship games project to play the schedules that tie as the 2nd-easiest in the league.

Washington comes in at No. 1. Its opponents (for 2019) went a combined 119-135-2 in games last year. But that’s not a particularly compelling numbers. More typically, the team with the easiest schedule would come in about 10 games easiest. In the last 10 years (2009-2018) 58 teams have entered seasons projecting to play schedules easier than what we’re seeing from Washington.

Five teams tie for the No. 2 spot, and that group includes the Patriots and Rams. The rich get richer. Other teams in that easy-schedule group include the Bengals, Jets and Giants.

The Raiders, Broncos and Jaguars project to play the hardest schedules next year.

2019 STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (wins)
TeamWLTPct
Washington1191352.469
New England1201342.473
LA Rams1201342.473
Cincinnati1191334.473
NY Jets1201342.473
NY Giants1201342.473
Philadelphia1211332.477
Seattle1211323.479
Buffalo1221322.480
Cleveland1231312.484
New Orleans1251310.488
Baltimore1251274.496
Pittsburgh1261282.496
Detroit1251274.496
Miami1271272.500
Carolina1281271.502
LA Chargers1271263.502
Dallas1281262.504
Green Bay1281262.504
Arizona1291252.508
Tampa Bay1301260.508
San Francisco1291243.510
Minnesota1301242.512
Tennessee1311241.514
Atlanta1321231.518
Indianapolis1321231.518
Chicago1311214.520
Kansas City1321222.520
Houston1351210.527
Jacksonville1361200.531
Denver1361173.537
Oakland1371172.539

If you prefer to look not at wins & losses but instead points (this is fantasy football, after all, so we’re all more interested in offensive production, whether teams win or not) then the Ravens, Seahawks and Cardinals project to play the easiest schedules. But note that the Rams and Patriots also grade out in the top 6 in that format.

Kansas City, Houston and Oakland (again) project to have the three most difficult schedules.

2019 STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (points)
TeamPoints
Baltimore24.67
Seattle24.58
Arizona24.30
San Francisco24.17
New England24.10
LA Rams23.97
Carolina23.86
Pittsburgh23.85
Cincinnati23.54
Cleveland23.52
New Orleans23.50
Jacksonville23.48
Buffalo23.39
NY Jets23.38
Tampa Bay23.27
Atlanta23.27
Chicago23.23
Detroit23.23
Washington23.21
Dallas23.17
LA Chargers23.16
Philadelphia23.11
NY Giants23.08
Tennessee23.07
Miami23.01
Minnesota22.91
Denver22.90
Indianapolis22.86
Green Bay22.63
Oakland22.49
Houston22.37
Kansas City21.74

Circling back to the point about Washington’s “easy” schedule not being as easy as what we typically see, below are the projected easiest schedules of the last 10 years. Nine teams come in a full 10 wins lighter than 2019 Washington.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (2009-2019) wins/losses
YearTeamWLTPt
2015Atlanta1041502.410
2009Chicago1051492.414
2015Indianapolis1061491.416
2015Houston1061482.418
2009Minnesota1071481.420
2017Indianapolis1071463.424
2015Tampa Bay1081462.426
2009Green Bay1091461.428
2013Denver1101460.430
2014Indianapolis1101460.430
2015New Orleans1091452.430
2009Pittsburgh1101442.434
2015Carolina1111450.434
2015Tennessee1111441.436
2009Baltimore1111432.438
2014Tennessee1121440.438
2017Jacksonville1111423.439
2017Tennessee1111423.439
2009Arizona1131430.441
2011Arizona1131430.441
2014Houston1131430.441
2009San Francisco1131421.443
2010Arizona1141420.445
2009Cleveland1141402.449
2010St. Louis1151410.449
2017Cincinnati1151410.449
2010San Diego1161400.453
2010Seattle1161400.453
2012New England1161400.453
2014Jacksonville1161400.453
2017Minnesota1151392.453
2017Pittsburgh1151392.453
2018Houston1161400.453
2017Houston1151383.455
2017Seattle1151383.455
2009Seattle1171390.457
2010San Francisco1171390.457
2011Baltimore1171390.457
2013San Diego1171390.457
2016Green Bay1171390.457
2013Indianapolis1171372.461
2014Baltimore1181380.461
2016Chicago1181380.461
2016NY Giants1181380.461
2017Baltimore1171372.461
2015Jacksonville1181371.463
2009St. Louis1191370.465
2009Cincinnati1191370.465
2011San Francisco1191370.465
2014Cleveland1191370.465
2014NY Giants1191370.465
2016Cincinnati1191370.465
2016Dallas1191370.465
2016Detroit1191370.465
2018Tennessee1191370.465
2009Detroit1191361.467
2015Dallas1191361.467
2017Arizona1181353.467
2010New Orleans1201360.469
2012Green Bay1201360.469
2013Oakland1201360.469
2014Pittsburgh1201360.469
2014New Orleans1191352.469
2014Cincinnati1201360.469
2016Philadelphia1201360.469
2017Cleveland1191352.469
2017Detroit1191352.469
2019Washington1191352.469

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index