Mike Williams had the weird season last year. He caught only 43 passes, but 11 of them went for touchdowns. Over a quarter of his catches were touchdowns. Can he be counted on in 2019?
There have been a lot of these kind of receivers over the year - guys who don’t catch a lot of passes but get in the end zone a lot. Daryl Turner is the all-time king in this category, but with him having played in the ’80s, I don’t think he’s relevant to anything that’s happening on fields today.
In the last 30 years, 21 other wide receivers have caught at least 10 touchdowns, with over 20 percent of their catches resulting in touchdowns. That’s the group that Williams is now a member of.
Of those previous 21, way more misses than hits the next year. By my count, seven of those guys – a third – finished with good numbers the next season. That includes Randy Moss three times and Jerry Rice once, and I’m not ready to put Williams anywhere near those guys.
At the same time, there are some lesser guys who have done this in the past that Williams is definitely more promising than.
| TOUCHDOWN-HEAVY RECEIVERS (the next year) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | No | Rec | Avg | TD |
| 1990 | Jerry Rice, S.F. | 100 | 1,502 | 15.0 | 13 |
| 1992 | Michael Haynes, Atl. | 48 | 808 | 16.8 | 10 |
| 1993 | Michael Haynes, Atl. | 72 | 778 | 10.8 | 4 |
| 1996 | Anthony Miller, Den. | 56 | 735 | 13.1 | 4 |
| 1996 | Bill Brooks, Was. | 17 | 224 | 13.2 | 0 |
| 1997 | Eddie Kennison, St.L. | 25 | 404 | 16.2 | 0 |
| 1998 | James Jett, Oak. | 45 | 882 | 19.6 | 6 |
| 1999 | Randy Moss, Minn. | 80 | 1,413 | 17.7 | 12 |
| 1999 | Terrell Owens, S.F. | 60 | 754 | 12.6 | 4 |
| 2005 | Randy Moss, Oak. | 62 | 1,136 | 18.3 | 8 |
| 2008 | Randy Moss, N.E. | 69 | 1,008 | 14.6 | 11 |
| 2008 | Greg Jennings, G.B. | 80 | 1,292 | 16.2 | 9 |
| 2008 | Reggie Williams, Jac. | 37 | 364 | 9.8 | 3 |
| 2008 | Braylon Edwards, Clev. | 55 | 873 | 15.9 | 3 |
| 2011 | Dwayne Bowe, K.C. | 81 | 1,159 | 14.3 | 5 |
| 2012 | Jordy Nelson, G.B. | 49 | 745 | 15.2 | 7 |
| 2012 | Laurent Robinson, Jac. | 24 | 252 | 10.5 | 0 |
| 2013 | James Jones, G.B. | 59 | 817 | 13.8 | 3 |
| 2014 | Jerricho Cotchery, Car. | 48 | 580 | 12.1 | 1 |
| 2015 | Torrey Smith, S.F. | 33 | 663 | 20.1 | 4 |
| 2016 | Ted Ginn, Car. | 54 | 752 | 13.9 | 4 |
| 2019 | Mike Williams, LAC | ? | ? | ? | ? |
Williams came on some at the end of last year. He’s entering his third year. He’s also playing on a team that lost Tyrell Williams in free agency. That presumably will result in him seeing a few more balls.
On the downside, Philip Rivers has that rapport with Keenan Allen, who over the last two years has caught more passes than the team’s 2nd and 3rd wide receivers combined.
My expectation is that Williams will continue to be used more for big catches rather than as a featured part of the offense. I think Allen will catch a lot more balls. More red-zone work for Williams, and he’ll see more looks on the long throws down the sidelines (he’s huge, but he’s not a burner).
I think some will be looking for a breakout-type season for Williams, with him maybe pushing into the top 10 among wide receivers. I’m not in that group. Relative to where I end up slotting him, I’m guessing there will be people in most leagues who value him more than I do.
—Ian Allan