Factoid

May 18, 2019

Miles Sanders / 2nd-round running backs

Hit rate fair, with a handful of immediate stars

It wasn't an exciting class of rookie running backs. Only one, Josh Jacobs, was selected in the top 50 picks. Miles Sanders was the only second-rounder, quite a drop from a year ago (when four were selected in that round). What should be expected from Sanders as a rookie?

Since 2000, there have been 46 other running backs selected in the second round of the draft. About a third (15) have been relevant fantasy players in their first seasons, which I'll define as over 800 total yards as a rookie. That includes two members of last year's class, Nick Chubb and Kerryon Johnson. The other two flopped, either because they got hurt (Derrius Guice) or because they actually flopped (Ronald Jones).

Ten of those 46 players (22 percent) went over 1,000 total yards, with several big stars: Portis, Forte, Lacy, MJD. 1,300-plus yards and double-digit touchdowns. Sanders will be something else if he can approach that group.

2ND-ROUND RUNNING BACKS, 2000-PRESENT
Year	Pk	Player	Run	Rec	Tot	TD
2002	51	Clinton Portis, Den.	1508	364	1872	17
2008	44	Matt Forte, Chi.	1238	477	1715	12
2013	61	Eddie Lacy, G.B.	1178	257	1435	11
2006	60	Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac.	941	436	1377	16
2001	38	Anthony Thomas, Chi.	1183	178	1361	7
2014	55	Jeremy Hill, Cin.	1124	215	1339	9
2013	48	LeVeon Bell, Pitt.	860	399	1259	8
2013	37	Giovani Bernard, Cin.	695	514	1209	8
2018	35	Nick Chubb, Clev.	996	149	1145	10
2015	36	T.J. Yeldon, Jac.	740	279	1019	3
2009	53	LeSean McCoy, Phil.	637	308	945	4
2004	43	Julius Jones, Dall.	819	107	926	7
2017	48	Joe Mixon, Cin.	626	287	913	4
2001	58	Travis Henry, Buff.	729	179	908	4
2018	43	Kerryon Johnson, Det.	641	213	854	4
2015	54	Ameer Abdullah, Det.	597	183	780	3
2008	55	Ray Rice, Balt.	454	273	727	0
2013	58	Montee Ball, Den.	559	145	704	4
2014	54	Bishop Sankey, Tenn.	569	133	702	2
2011	62	Daniel Thomas, Mia.	581	72	653	1
2016	45	Derrick Henry, Tenn.	490	137	627	5
2005	44	J.J. Arrington, Ariz.	370	139	509	2
2010	51	Toby Gerhart, Minn.	322	167	489	1
2004	41	Tatum Bell, Den.	396	80	476	3
2002	56	Ladell Betts, Wash.	307	154	461	1
2017	41	Dalvin Cook, Minn.	354	90	444	2
2014	57	Carlos Hyde, S.F.	333	68	401	4
2007	63	Brandon Jackson, G.B.	267	130	397	1
2001	49	LaMont Jordan, NYJ	292	44	336	2
2006	45	LenDale White, Tenn.	244	60	304	0
2002	54	Maurice Morris, Sea.	153	25	178	1
2004	55	Greg Jones, Jac.	162	13	175	3
2007	50	Chris Henry, Tenn.	119	53	172	2
2012	61	LaMichael James, S.F.	125	29	154	0
2013	62	Christine Michael, Sea.	79	0	79	0
2018	38	Ronald Jones, T.B.	44	33	77	1
2012	50	Isaiah Pead, St.L.	54	16	70	0
2011	56	Shane Vereen, N.E.	57	0	57	1
2018	59	Derrius Guice, Wash.	0	0	0	0
2011	38	Ryan Williams, Ariz.	0	0	0	0
2011	57	Mikel Leshoure, Det.	0	0	0	0
2010	58	Ben Tate, Hou.	0	0	0	0
2010	59	Montario Hardesty, Clev.	0	0	0	0
2007	49	Kenny Irons, Cin.	0	0	0	0
2005	54	Eric Shelton, Car.	0	0	0	0
2002	34	DeShaun Foster, Car.	0	0	0	0

Sanders was a very good college player for Penn State last year, following Saquon Barkley. I've gone back and forth on him, watching his games. Sometimes he looks great, with a similar running style. At other times he doesn't look nearly as natural with the ball, particularly as a receiver -- he has the role, but not the comfort level.

Philadelphia has favored a committee in recent years, but that doesn't bother me too much. They haven't had a complete back in that timeframe, and they've had problems keeping guys healthy. Jordan Howard isn't very good; Wendell Smallwood, Corey Clement and Josh Adams aren't either. If Sanders picks up the offense quickly, and if his "good" college plays are the real player, he won't leave the field very much.

Forced to choose, I suspect Sanders will be Kerryon Johnson as a rookie. Starting out in a committee, but gradually emerging as the best back. I'm not sure you can trust him as a starter early in the season, but he could be a viable No. 3 running back who pays off by November.

--Andy Richardson

Miles Sanders

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