Fantasy Index

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Factoid

Third-down backs

Receiving production tends to increase in losses

When a pass-catching running back is in a PPR league, I tend to get more excited when the team is in a tougher situation. If a team can’t run the ball or falls way behind, it tends to start working in more dumpoff passes, and the fantasy points can pile up.

We saw it in the first game of the season, when Tarik Cohen grabbed up a bunch of short catches late against the Packers. Had the Bears been leading that game by a couple of touchdowns in the fourth quarter, they more likely would have been grinding things out on the ground with David Montgomery.

It’s something I’ve been toying around with, so I decided to run a few numbers.

Since 2014, there have been 65 games in which a running back has caught at least 9 passes. Only about a quarter of those players came from teams that won the game. Almost three times as many came from losing teams – 47 winners versus 18 losers.

If we lower the bar down to 7-plus catches, there are still over twice as many coming from losing teams (160 to 73, with one tied game). Most teams don’t use passes to running backs to break down defenses; those plays get a lot more popular when the team is trailing.

Something to think about. You get a third-down back on a team that’s going to lose a lot of games, he can be good in these kind of matchups. Chris Thompson (pictured) in a lot of games; if the Cowboys come out and put up a bunch of points early on Sunday, Thompson should have a good day. Maybe Kenyan Drake this week against New England.

RUNNING BACKS WITH 9 CATCHES IN GAMES
YearPlayerOppScoreTgtRecYards
2018Alvin Kamara, N.O.at Atl.W 43-372015124
2018Christian McCaffrey, Car.at Atl.L 24-311514102
2018Saquon Barkley, NYGat Dall.L 13-20161480
2018Chris Thompson, Was.Ind.L 9-21141392
2018Tarik Cohen, Chi.at NYGL 27-301412156
2015Javorius Allen, Bal.at Mia.L 13-151312107
2014Matt Forte, Chi.at Car.L 24-311212105
2017LeVeon Bell, Pit.G.B.W 31-28141288
2018Ezekiel Elliott, Dal.Phil.W 29-23131279
2018Christian McCaffrey, Car.Atl.L 10-24131277
2018Christian McCaffrey, Car.Sea.L 27-301111112
2016Bilal Powell, NYJMia.L 13-34121178
2015Danny Woodhead, S.D.Oak.L 29-37121175
2017Todd Gurley, LARat Ten.W 27-231310158
2015James White, N.E.Phil.L 28-351310115
2015Lance Dunbar, Dal.Atl.L 28-391010100
2019Christian McCaffrey, Car.LARL 27-30111081
2018James White, N.E.at Buff.W 25-6131079
2018James White, N.E.Ind.W 38-24141077
2014Matt Forte, Chi.at Atl.W 27-13131077
2018Todd Gurley, LARPhil.L 23-30131076
2017Alvin Kamara, N.O.at Mia.W 20-0101071
2018Austin Ekeler, LACAriz.W 45-10111068
2016LeVeon Bell, Pit.N.E.L 16-27131068
2017Christian McCaffrey, Car.Phil.L 23-28141056
2015Devonta Freeman, Atl.at T.B.L 19-23111056
2015Theo Riddick, Det.Ariz.L 17-42131053
2017James White, N.E.Car.L 30-33121047
2017LeVeon Bell, Pit.Jac.L 9-30101046
2014Fred Jackson, Buf.at Den.L 17-24141037
2018Alvin Kamara, N.O.T.B.L 40-48129112
2018Melvin Gordon, LACK.C.L 28-38139102
2017Christian McCaffrey, Car.N.O.L 13-34119101
2016Giovani Bernard, Cin.at Pitt.L 16-24119100
2018Saquon Barkley, NYGPhil.L 13-3412999
2014Fred Jackson, Buf.at Oak.L 24-2612993
2016David Johnson, Ariz.Was.W 31-2312991
2016LeVeon Bell, Pit.NYJW 31-1311988
2017Andre Ellington, Ariz.S.F.W 18-1514986
2016Fozzy Whittaker, Car.at Atl.L 33-489986
2017Devonta Freeman, Atl.Car.W 22-1011985
2015Duke Johnson, Cle.at SDL 27-3010985
2017Carlos Hyde, S.F.Ariz.L 10-2011984
2018Duke Johnson, Cle.K.C.L 21-379978
2015Arian Foster, Hou.Ind.L 20-2710977
2017LeVeon Bell, Pit.Balt.W 39-3810977
2016LeVeon Bell, Pit.Dall.L 30-3510977
2015Charles Sims, T.B.at Car.L 10-3811974
2017Chris Ivory, Jac.LARL 17-2710974
2018Saquon Barkley, NYGWas.L 13-2010973
2017Melvin Gordon, LACat Oak.W 17-1612967
2018Dion Lewis, Ten.Phil.W 26-239966
2017Andre Ellington, Ariz.at Phil.L 7-3410965
2018Nyheim Hines, Ind.Hou.L 34-3711963
2015Darren McFadden, Dal.N.E.L 6-3010962
2016Jerick McKinnon, Min.Ind.L 6-349959
2017LeVeon Bell, Pit.Ten.W 40-1711957
2018Christian McCaffrey, Car.at T.B.L 17-2410955
2018Jalen Richard, Oak.LARL 13-3311955
2018Saquon Barkley, NYGat Atl.L 20-2310951
2017Shane Vereen, NYGat Dall.L 3-1910951
2018Nyheim Hines, Ind.at Jac.L 0-69950
2014DeMarco Murray, Dal.at Chi.W 41-2810949
2017Duke Johnson, Cle.Cin.L 7-3110947
2018Theo Riddick, Det.at S.F.L 27-3012947

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index