KANSAS CITY (vs Baltimore)
The Ravens are better equipped than other teams to cause problems for Kansas City. With their offensive firepower, Baltimore has more ability to keep Andy Reid's offense on the sidelines -- like New England did in the AFC Championship last year. But ...
... the way Kansas City is playing right now, it probably will put up top-5 numbers anyway -- tough to keep this offense out of the end zone. ... With the running backs, it's fast becoming a one-two punch. LeSean McCoy has put up their best rushing numbers in both games. Damien Williams hasn't averaged better than 2.0 per carry in either game, but he's been a lot more productive as a receiver. With 9 catches for 87 yards, Williams has more total yards. Williams looks like the stronger option this week. He's still the starter, while McCoy suffered an ankle injury at Oakland that required an MRI. McCoy is expected to play, but ...
This report is taken from today's Week 3 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... Williams should play more. Neither should put up good rushing numbers; Baltimore has been strong against the run, while KC hasn't yet been able to get its running game going. When Kansas City beat Baltimore 27-24 in overtime last December, Williams carried 8 times for only 14 yards (though Spencer Ware was 15 for 75). In this one, the running backs are more likely to do their damage on pass plays. Williams and Ware in the last game against Baltimore combined for 9 catches for 70 yards and a touchdown. ... Patrick Mahomes looks pretty unstoppable so far. He's averaging 411 passing yards, and he's thrown 7 touchdowns versus 0 interceptions. That's despite playing most of the season without his top receiver and opening the season on the road against an unusually good pass defense. Mahomes has put up multiple touchdowns in all but one of his last 18 starts. The last time he played the Ravens, they caused some problems for him early, but he rallied to pass for 377 yards and 2 TDs. As well as Baltimore is playing right now, it will still be a surprise if Mahomes doesn't finish with at least 330 yards and multiple touchdowns (3 TDs look more likely). ... With the kind of passing stats Mahomes is putting up, the wide receivers look very solid. They'll use three on most downs. Sammy Watkins is their No. 1 option. He lit up Jacksonville in Week 1, then took a step back at Oakland, catching only 6 of 13 targets (and for just 49 yards). But with how they're using him, best to stick with Watkins -- he had more targets last week than their other starting receivers combined. Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman will both be on the field for the vast majority of plays, and both have the ability to hit on big plays. Both saw 6 targets last week, and both caught touchdowns over 40 yards. Mahomes went 6-for-6 passing for Robinson, for 172 yards and 2 TDs. Hardman caught only 4 passes for 61, but looks pretty similar. Hardman is more likely to be incorporated on kick returns and as a runner (he ran for a touchdown in the preseason). ... Travis Kelce is the No. 1 tight end in the game right now, with his receiving ability and the general structure of this offense (especially with Tyreek Hill out). Kelce caught 7 passes for 107 yards and a touchdown last week, and he should have scored in the opener. When Kansas City beat Baltimore last year, Kelce caught 7 passes for 77 yards and a touchdown. ... We're ranking Harrison Butker a little higher than usual. This looks like the kind of defense that might be able to force some field goal attempts. When Kansas City beat Baltimore last year, Butker tied his season-high with 4 field goals. ... The Kansas City Defense looks like a below-average choice. It has some pass rush ability, but it could have a hard time generating much against an offense with an unusual ability to pound the ball with the run. Lamar Jackson isn't making as many mistakes as last year. That might change some if Jackson can be forced to more often act as a dropback passer, but it doesn't seem super likely. Jackson last year took 22 sacks in the eight games he started, with at least one fumble in every game (and 4 interceptions). He's taken only 3 sacks this year, with no interceptions or fumbles. Kansas City has good return units, but it might not be able to force many punts in this game.