A few weeks ago, the Steelers looked lost, and headed toward the bottom of the AFC North. The Dolphins were a historically-bad team. The Patriots were rolling, the Eagles were slumping and everyone knew that the Saints were going to steamroll the Falcons.
But now it's all different. Or is it? I mean besides the part about the Falcons. The truth is that you never really know how an NFL team will look after a game, or when the season's finished. Fortunately, that goes for fantasy teams, too.
The final month of the regular season is when teams secure playoff spots or fall by the wayside. Right now, a few spots might look settled in your league. In fact, you might think the teams in contention are fighting for just one open spot, and the others have pretty much been filled.
But that's not true. Until a team has clinched, all spots are wide open. Since there's no synergy in fantasy football (your team doesn't even know they're a team), winning streaks and losing streaks are never out of reach.
You might see a team at the top of their division, with a lot of points and a good future ahead of them. Facing that and needing a win might look like an uphill task. But you never know. They might have Austin Hooper and Adam Thielen injured, and Aaron Jones on the bye. All of a sudden, they're very beatable. And the following week, they'll have both Thielen and Patrick Mahomes on the bye. In fact, I know a fantasy team in that exact circumstance.
Yes, it's my team, okay? That's what I'm facing right now. My great lineup doesn't look so great anymore. Teams that look ready to fade away could win out and take the spot I thought I had. And while I don't love scrambling to replace injured guys at the end of the year, it's part of the fun. You're not really out of it until the math says you are. This year I'm the team that could collapse and let someone else in, and next year I could be the team that sneaks in on a late surge. You never know.
I realize this isn't breaking news. But consider it a pep talk for owners who feel like the season is already lost. The Dolphins aren't going to the playoffs, but they're not the disaster we assumed they were. The Steelers are not only not out of the running, they could still win their division. And the Jaguars are just a couple games out of first place, and they have their pricey free agent quarterback returning. They still have a shot. Same with your fantasy team.
It's also a warning to fantasy owners who are feeling a little too comfortable, as if their spot is already secured. I wouldn't bet against the Patriots right now, but another Super Bowl berth isn't a foregone conclusion. The Ravens could end up hosting the conference championship, or the Ravens could be a wildcard. No team leads their division by more than two games, and there are at least six more to play. It's too early to pencil anything in. Same for your fantasy team.
Then weird part is that the things we think are true today could look just as silly as what we thought was true a few weeks ago. And those silly old ideas could turn out to be true after all. The bottom line is that you might find yourself resigned to the fact that the playoffs aren't in your future. You might have to accept that it simply isn't your year. But the time for all that is not in week 11. A winning streak could be right around the corner. Stay focused, stay hopeful and stay invested in your team. It could pay off far into the future, like December. Good luck this week.
Do you need a winning streak to make the playoffs? Trying to avoid a late-season collapse? How do you stay positive with a month of games left? Share your thoughts below.