With respect to how the Titans defense was able to limit Baltimore last week, we’re gung ho on Kansas City’s offense anyway. It’s loaded with talent, and it seems to be peaking at the right time. It should be the best of the four teams playing this week.

Even before putting up 439 total yards and 7 touchdowns against Houston last week, Kansas City had averaged 26 points in its final four games to close out the season, notable since all were against top-12 defenses (Patriots, Bears, Broncos and Chargers). Tennessee ranked 21st in yards allowed, giving up 11 touchdowns in its last three meaningful games entering the playoffs. About 4 touchdowns looks right for Kansas City here.

QUARTERBACKS

Patrick Mahomes looks like the best of the week’s quarterbacks – by far. Not just because he’s been the best since the start of last season (NFL and fantasy). But he’s definitely got the best matchup of the four, facing a Titans teams ranked 26th in pass defense – at least 10 spots lower than the other remaining defenses. It allowed 25 touchdown passes, also more than the other remaining teams (all at 19-23). He should be the week’s best option, and it’s not particularly close. And he’s pretty hot right now, throwing for 321 yards and 5 TDs last week, while running for 53 more. He also threw for 446 yards and 3 TDs against this opponent in Week 10, at Tennessee. Those in salary cap-type competitions can consider another, cheaper quarterback, but the projections indicate he’ll be the vastly superior starter (while the other three are more closely bunched).

RUNNING BACKS

Tennessee had an above-average ranking against the run during the season (12th), but more likely it’s an average run defense. Mark Ingram wasn’t healthy last week (and Baltimore barely used its running backs). New England averaged 4.5 yards per attempt the previous week. And most of the teams Tennessee controlled during the season had lesser ground games (Falcons, Chargers, Colts without Mack). Tennessee allowed 14 rushing scores, slightly worse than average. Damien Williams was fine in the earlier meeting (19 for 77, so 4.1 per attempt), and he’s playing at a higher level now. He averaged 123 total yards and scored 3 TDs the last two weeks of the season, then followed it up with 68 and 3 more touchdowns against Houston. Kansas City favored a committee for large portions of the season, particularly when Williams was sidelined or playing through injury, but note he was the only running to touch the ball (or see any targets in the passing game) last week, playing all but 2 snaps. LeSean McCoy and Darwin Thompson each played 1. That could change; McCoy might at least get some change-of-pace opportunities. But Williams looks like their guy, and the only one who belongs in lineups this week. Williams was active in the passing game in the earlier meeting, catching all 5 passes thrown his way for 32 yards (McCoy was a healthy scratch that day). The matchup looks better for the passing game, but that production will also include Williams.

RECEIVERS

As if Travis Kelce didn’t already look outstanding, coming off last week’s 10 for 134 with 3 touchdowns performance, now he faces a defense that allowed 9 touchdowns to the position during the season; only three teams allowed more. He caught all 7 passes thrown his way in the earlier meeting, for 75 yards and a touchdown, and he went for 66 yards and a touchdown when these teams met in the playoffs after the 2017 season. Looks like a more favorable situation than the other elite tight end playing this weekend, George Kittle. Blake Bell must be mentioned after scoring last week, but more commonly he's not an option (8 catches in 15 regular-season games).

With Kelce dominating, Tyreek Hill didn’t get in on the fun last week, catching only 3 passes for 41 yards. He was huge in the Week 10 game, though (11 for 157 and a touchdown, on an incredible 19 targets). Other than games he left early Hill averaged 84 yards and scored 7 touchdowns in 10 contests, which is more the kind of game to look for. Tennessee allowed a modest 13 touchdowns to wide receivers, making Kelce’s odds of scoring look a little better, but risky to underestimate Hill. Mecole Hardman has the most upside of the other receivers – despite the potential to be entirely shut out. In Hill’s 10 healthy games he averaged just 28 yards, but with 5 touchdowns. He put up at least 45 yards in four of those, but was shutout entirely in three others. You’re playing for a touchdown, so he’s a boom-bust option. The earlier meeting is representative: he caught just 1 pass, but it went for a 63-yard score. Hardman could disappoint, but the possibility of a hit nudges him ahead of Sammy Watkins and Demarcus Robinson – who only disappointed for virtually the entire season. Each had a big game early in the season (with Hill injured). Watkins caught 2 for 76 last week, but in his previous nine averaged just 34 yards, and with no touchdowns. Robinson has one game over 35 yards and one touchdown since Week 3. Both have the bust potential of Hardman while offering less upside. Watkins did catch 5 balls at Tennessee (for 39 yards), while Robinson caught 4 for 56. So maybe. But Mahomes attempted 50 passes and threw for 446, neither of which is likely to be repeated. Hardman’s projection, incidentally, includes the possibility of scoring a on kick return.

KICKER/DEFENSE

Harrison Butker averaged over 9 kicking points during the season, with his biggest game (14 points) at Tennessee. The Titans allowed under 6 kicking points per game, but we have little interest in slotting any other kickers ahead of Butker.

The Kansas City Defense gets the best matchup for sacks. While Ryan Tannehill has been sacked only once in each playoff game, he’ll likely have to pass more this week. In 11 games during the season he was sacked 31 times, so close to 3 per game. Kansas City was similar (45 in 16 games, and 4 more last week). Kansas City ranked 5th in interceptions (16), but Tannehill did a pretty good job of avoiding them (6). Not as good as two of the other three quarterbacks still playing, however; Aaron Rodgers (4) and Patrick Mahomes (5) threw fewer while starting all year (Jimmy Garoppolo threw 13). This defense recovered just 7 fumbles, however, a bottom-10 figure. It has one of the league’s best returners in Mecole Hardman, who had a touchdown during the season and a 58-yard return last week.

Player projections are below; later today we'll assemble all four teams to see how the rankings shake out.

--Andy Richardson