It’s going to be a wild offseason for quarterbacks, with a host of teams expected to bring in new starters. Where does Jacksonville (if at all) fit in with the buyers?
On the one hand, the Jaguars haven’t been able to get things going. They made it to the AFC Championship game in 2017, squandering a second-half lead at Foxborough. But otherwise, they’ve pretty consistently sputtered. The team has lost double-digit games in its last eight other seasons.
But on the other hand, the cupboard isn’t necessarily completely bare at quarterback. They didn’t get much last year out of Nick Foles, who lost all four of his starts, but he was hurt for most of the season and is a former Super Bowl MVP.
And Gardner Minshew was arguably last season’s most surprising rookie. Just a sixth-round pick, but he went 6-6 as a starter. He averaged 237 passing yards as a starter and has a good knack for scrambling (28 yards per game). In the 12 games he started, he threw 18 touchdowns versus only 4 interceptions – unusually good production for a rookie.
In the just-completed decade, 34 rookie quarterbacks started for at least half of their rookie season. Only 10 of those quarterbacks put up better per-game numbers than Minshew in their first year.
In the following chart, the “rank” (Rk) shows where the quarterback ranked that season in per-game production, using standard scoring.
ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS WITH 8-PLUS STARTS | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | St | Pass | Run | TDT | Pts | Rk |
2011 | Cam Newton, Car. | 16 | 253 | 44 | 2.19 | 27.8 | 4 |
2012 | Robert Griffin III, Wash. | 15 | 213 | 54 | 1.80 | 24.2 | 5 |
2019 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 12 | 251 | 23 | 2.17 | 24.2 | 8 |
2018 | Baker Mayfield, Clev. | 13 | 271 | 10 | 2.08 | 23.0 | 11 |
2012 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 16 | 273 | 16 | 1.75 | 22.9 | 10 |
2018 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 11 | 182 | 55 | 1.64 | 22.8 | 13 |
2015 | Marcus Mariota, Tenn. | 12 | 235 | 21 | 1.83 | 22.2 | 16 |
2019 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 16 | 233 | 34 | 1.50 | 21.9 | 13 |
2015 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 16 | 253 | 13 | 1.75 | 21.8 | 17 |
2016 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 16 | 229 | 18 | 1.81 | 21.2 | 17 |
2019 | Gardner Minshew, Jac. | 12 | 237 | 28 | 1.50 | 21.0 | 18 |
2012 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 195 | 31 | 1.88 | 20.8 | 12 |
2018 | Nick Mullens, S.F. | 8 | 285 | -2 | 1.63 | 20.8 | 20 |
2014 | Teddy Bridgewater, Minn. | 12 | 231 | 15 | 1.25 | 18.6 | 21 |
2018 | Sam Darnold, NYJ | 13 | 220 | 11 | 1.38 | 17.8 | 27 |
2016 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 16 | 236 | 9 | 1.13 | 17.8 | 27 |
2013 | EJ Manuel, Buff. | 10 | 197 | 19 | 1.30 | 17.7 | 25 |
2017 | DeShone Kizer, Clev. | 15 | 193 | 28 | 1.07 | 17.4 | 21 |
2013 | Case Keenum, Hou. | 8 | 220 | 9 | 1.25 | 17.2 | 26 |
2013 | Geno Smith, NYJ | 16 | 190 | 23 | 1.13 | 17.1 | 27 |
2011 | Andy Dalton, Cin. | 16 | 212 | 10 | 1.31 | 16.9 | 21 |
2010 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | 16 | 220 | 4 | 1.19 | 16.2 | 24 |
2014 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 13 | 207 | 30 | .69 | 16.2 | 27 |
2013 | Mike Glennon, T.B. | 13 | 201 | 3 | 1.46 | 16.2 | 31 |
2011 | Christian Ponder, Minn. | 10 | 175 | 21 | 1.30 | 16.1 | 24 |
2014 | Derek Carr, Oak. | 16 | 204 | 6 | 1.31 | 16.0 | 28 |
2012 | Brandon Weeden, Clev. | 15 | 226 | 7 | .93 | 15.8 | 27 |
2012 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 16 | 206 | 13 | .88 | 15.6 | 28 |
2010 | Colt McCoy, Clev. | 8 | 197 | 17 | .88 | 15.3 | 27 |
2017 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 12 | 183 | 21 | .75 | 14.7 | 29 |
2018 | Josh Rosen, Ariz. | 13 | 172 | 10 | .85 | 13.1 | 32 |
2016 | Cody Kessler, Clev. | 8 | 171 | 2 | .75 | 12.0 | 31 |
2011 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 14 | 154 | 7 | .86 | 11.8 | 33 |
2010 | Jimmy Clausen, Car. | 10 | 150 | 6 | .30 | 9.3 | 32 |
In the last 20 years, 52 quarterbacks have started at least half of the season in their first year. Only one of those quarterbacks finished with a better ratio of touchdowns to interceptions – Dak Prescott. On the numbers below, you’re looking at production in games started (Minshew also came off the bench in two games, finishing with 21 TDs and 6 interceptions overall).
ROOKIES / TD-Int ratio | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | St | TD | Int | Ratio |
2016 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 16 | 23 | 4 | 5.75 |
2019 | Gardner Minshew, Jac. | 12 | 18 | 4 | 4.50 |
2012 | Robert Griffin III, Wash. | 15 | 20 | 5 | 4.00 |
2016 | Cody Kessler, Clev. | 8 | 6 | 2 | 3.00 |
2012 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 26 | 10 | 2.60 |
2013 | Mike Glennon, T.B. | 13 | 19 | 9 | 2.11 |
2019 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 12 | 24 | 12 | 2.00 |
2018 | Baker Mayfield, Clev. | 13 | 27 | 14 | 1.93 |
2015 | Marcus Mariota, Tenn. | 12 | 19 | 10 | 1.90 |
2014 | Derek Carr, Oak. | 16 | 21 | 12 | 1.75 |
2019 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 16 | 20 | 12 | 1.67 |
2004 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 13 | 15 | 9 | 1.67 |
2011 | Andy Dalton, Cin. | 16 | 20 | 13 | 1.54 |
2015 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 16 | 22 | 15 | 1.47 |
2008 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 16 | 16 | 11 | 1.45 |
2018 | Nick Mullens, S.F. | 8 | 13 | 10 | 1.30 |
2012 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 16 | 23 | 18 | 1.28 |
2011 | Cam Newton, Car. | 16 | 21 | 17 | 1.24 |
2013 | EJ Manuel, Buff. | 10 | 11 | 9 | 1.22 |
2010 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | 16 | 18 | 15 | 1.20 |
2014 | Teddy Bridgewater, Minn. | 12 | 14 | 12 | 1.17 |
2008 | Joe Flacco, Balt. | 16 | 14 | 12 | 1.17 |
2016 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 16 | 16 | 14 | 1.14 |
2018 | Sam Darnold, NYJ | 13 | 17 | 15 | 1.13 |
2011 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 14 | 12 | 11 | 1.09 |
2017 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 12 | 7 | 7 | 1.00 |
2011 | Christian Ponder, Minn. | 10 | 13 | 13 | 1.00 |
2007 | Trent Edwards, Buff. | 9 | 7 | 7 | 1.00 |
2006 | Matt Leinart, Ariz. | 11 | 11 | 11 | 1.00 |
2006 | Bruce Gradkowski, T.B. | 11 | 9 | 9 | 1.00 |
2012 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 16 | 12 | 13 | .92 |
2006 | Vince Young, Tenn. | 13 | 11 | 12 | .92 |
2002 | Chad Hutchinson, Dall. | 9 | 7 | 8 | .88 |
2018 | Josh Rosen, Ariz. | 13 | 11 | 13 | .85 |
2018 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 11 | 10 | 12 | .83 |
2012 | Brandon Weeden, Clev. | 15 | 14 | 17 | .82 |
2003 | Kyle Boller, Balt. | 9 | 7 | 9 | .78 |
2003 | Byron Leftwich, Jac. | 13 | 12 | 16 | .75 |
2002 | Joey Harrington, Det. | 12 | 12 | 16 | .75 |
2001 | Quincy Carter, Dall. | 8 | 5 | 7 | .71 |
2005 | Kyle Orton, Chi. | 15 | 9 | 13 | .69 |
2010 | Colt McCoy, Clev. | 8 | 6 | 9 | .67 |
2009 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 10 | 13 | 20 | .65 |
2014 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 13 | 9 | 15 | .60 |
2009 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 15 | 12 | 20 | .60 |
2002 | David Carr, Hou. | 16 | 9 | 15 | .60 |
2001 | Chris Weinke, Car. | 15 | 11 | 19 | .58 |
2013 | Geno Smith, NYJ | 16 | 12 | 21 | .57 |
2009 | Josh Freeman, T.B. | 9 | 10 | 18 | .56 |
2017 | DeShone Kizer, Clev. | 15 | 11 | 22 | .50 |
2010 | Jimmy Clausen, Car. | 10 | 3 | 8 | .38 |
2006 | Andrew Walter, Oak. | 8 | 3 | 8 | .38 |
I’m not arguing that Minshew is the next big thing at quarterback. But I expect he’ll fit onto the roster in Jacksonville, either as their opening-day starter, or as one of the league’s better No. 2 quarterbacks.
—Ian Allan