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Factoid

Gardner Minshew

Is Jacksonville in the market to add another quarterback?

It’s going to be a wild offseason for quarterbacks, with a host of teams expected to bring in new starters. Where does Jacksonville (if at all) fit in with the buyers?

On the one hand, the Jaguars haven’t been able to get things going. They made it to the AFC Championship game in 2017, squandering a second-half lead at Foxborough. But otherwise, they’ve pretty consistently sputtered. The team has lost double-digit games in its last eight other seasons.

But on the other hand, the cupboard isn’t necessarily completely bare at quarterback. They didn’t get much last year out of Nick Foles, who lost all four of his starts, but he was hurt for most of the season and is a former Super Bowl MVP.

And Gardner Minshew was arguably last season’s most surprising rookie. Just a sixth-round pick, but he went 6-6 as a starter. He averaged 237 passing yards as a starter and has a good knack for scrambling (28 yards per game). In the 12 games he started, he threw 18 touchdowns versus only 4 interceptions – unusually good production for a rookie.

In the just-completed decade, 34 rookie quarterbacks started for at least half of their rookie season. Only 10 of those quarterbacks put up better per-game numbers than Minshew in their first year.

In the following chart, the “rank” (Rk) shows where the quarterback ranked that season in per-game production, using standard scoring.

ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS WITH 8-PLUS STARTS
YearPlayerStPassRunTDTPtsRk
2011Cam Newton, Car.16253442.1927.84
2012Robert Griffin III, Wash.15213541.8024.25
2019Daniel Jones, NYG12251232.1724.28
2018Baker Mayfield, Clev.13271102.0823.011
2012Andrew Luck, Ind.16273161.7522.910
2018Josh Allen, Buff.11182551.6422.813
2015Marcus Mariota, Tenn.12235211.8322.216
2019Kyler Murray, Ariz.16233341.5021.913
2015Jameis Winston, T.B.16253131.7521.817
2016Dak Prescott, Dall.16229181.8121.217
2019Gardner Minshew, Jac.12237281.5021.018
2012Russell Wilson, Sea.16195311.8820.812
2018Nick Mullens, S.F.8285-21.6320.820
2014Teddy Bridgewater, Minn.12231151.2518.621
2018Sam Darnold, NYJ13220111.3817.827
2016Carson Wentz, Phil.1623691.1317.827
2013EJ Manuel, Buff.10197191.3017.725
2017DeShone Kizer, Clev.15193281.0717.421
2013Case Keenum, Hou.822091.2517.226
2013Geno Smith, NYJ16190231.1317.127
2011Andy Dalton, Cin.16212101.3116.921
2010Sam Bradford, St.L.1622041.1916.224
2014Blake Bortles, Jac.1320730.6916.227
2013Mike Glennon, T.B.1320131.4616.231
2011Christian Ponder, Minn.10175211.3016.124
2014Derek Carr, Oak.1620461.3116.028
2012Brandon Weeden, Clev.152267.9315.827
2012Ryan Tannehill, Mia.1620613.8815.628
2010Colt McCoy, Clev.819717.8815.327
2017Mitchell Trubisky, Chi.1218321.7514.729
2018Josh Rosen, Ariz.1317210.8513.132
2016Cody Kessler, Clev.81712.7512.031
2011Blaine Gabbert, Jac.141547.8611.833
2010Jimmy Clausen, Car.101506.309.332

In the last 20 years, 52 quarterbacks have started at least half of the season in their first year. Only one of those quarterbacks finished with a better ratio of touchdowns to interceptions – Dak Prescott. On the numbers below, you’re looking at production in games started (Minshew also came off the bench in two games, finishing with 21 TDs and 6 interceptions overall).

ROOKIES / TD-Int ratio
YearPlayerStTDIntRatio
2016Dak Prescott, Dall.162345.75
2019Gardner Minshew, Jac.121844.50
2012Robert Griffin III, Wash.152054.00
2016Cody Kessler, Clev.8623.00
2012Russell Wilson, Sea.1626102.60
2013Mike Glennon, T.B.131992.11
2019Daniel Jones, NYG1224122.00
2018Baker Mayfield, Clev.1327141.93
2015Marcus Mariota, Tenn.1219101.90
2014Derek Carr, Oak.1621121.75
2019Kyler Murray, Ariz.1620121.67
2004Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.131591.67
2011Andy Dalton, Cin.1620131.54
2015Jameis Winston, T.B.1622151.47
2008Matt Ryan, Atl.1616111.45
2018Nick Mullens, S.F.813101.30
2012Andrew Luck, Ind.1623181.28
2011Cam Newton, Car.1621171.24
2013EJ Manuel, Buff.101191.22
2010Sam Bradford, St.L.1618151.20
2014Teddy Bridgewater, Minn.1214121.17
2008Joe Flacco, Balt.1614121.17
2016Carson Wentz, Phil.1616141.14
2018Sam Darnold, NYJ1317151.13
2011Blaine Gabbert, Jac.1412111.09
2017Mitchell Trubisky, Chi.12771.00
2011Christian Ponder, Minn.1013131.00
2007Trent Edwards, Buff.9771.00
2006Matt Leinart, Ariz.1111111.00
2006Bruce Gradkowski, T.B.11991.00
2012Ryan Tannehill, Mia.161213.92
2006Vince Young, Tenn.131112.92
2002Chad Hutchinson, Dall.978.88
2018Josh Rosen, Ariz.131113.85
2018Josh Allen, Buff.111012.83
2012Brandon Weeden, Clev.151417.82
2003Kyle Boller, Balt.979.78
2003Byron Leftwich, Jac.131216.75
2002Joey Harrington, Det.121216.75
2001Quincy Carter, Dall.857.71
2005Kyle Orton, Chi.15913.69
2010Colt McCoy, Clev.869.67
2009Matthew Stafford, Det.101320.65
2014Blake Bortles, Jac.13915.60
2009Mark Sanchez, NYJ151220.60
2002David Carr, Hou.16915.60
2001Chris Weinke, Car.151119.58
2013Geno Smith, NYJ161221.57
2009Josh Freeman, T.B.91018.56
2017DeShone Kizer, Clev.151122.50
2010Jimmy Clausen, Car.1038.38
2006Andrew Walter, Oak.838.38

I’m not arguing that Minshew is the next big thing at quarterback. But I expect he’ll fit onto the roster in Jacksonville, either as their opening-day starter, or as one of the league’s better No. 2 quarterbacks.

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index