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Factoid

Philip Rivers

Limited mobility restricts veteran quarterback's value

Will there be a market for Philip Rivers when free agency opens up next week? (That is, if the NFL stays on schedule – they might up to push things back, with the coronavirus situation.)

Rivers has slipped, with his lack of mobility and declining arm strength leading to too many turnovers. With no ability to move, he really struggles when opponents can generate a good pass rush.

For fantasy purposes, his lack of mobility is a big strike against him. Rushing production is typically worth about twice as much in most fantasy scoring systems, so when he’s not running for 100 yards and a couple of touchdowns each year, it tends to cost him relative to other passers.

Consider, for example, the 26 quarterbacks who have started at least half the time over the last five years. Rivers ranks 5th in average passing production, at 283 yards per game, with an average of 29 touchdowns per season. Using 4 for TDs and 1 for every 20 passing yards, that’s 21.6 points per game – just behind Tom Brady and Matt Ryan.

PASSING PRODUCTION PER GAME (last 5 years)
PlayerStPassTDPFPG
Drew Brees732932.0722.9
Ben Roethlisberger582951.8822.8
Tom Brady762801.9622.0
Matt Ryan792911.7721.8
Philip Rivers802831.8121.6
Aaron Rodgers712591.9421.0
Jameis Winston702771.6920.9
Matthew Stafford722681.7420.4
Kirk Cousins792671.7320.4
Russell Wilson802471.9420.2
Carson Wentz562531.7319.9
Jared Goff542631.6119.7
Eli Manning672581.6019.4
Derek Carr782501.5619.0
Ryan Fitzpatrick502521.5819.0
Blake Bortles602451.5318.6
Dak Prescott642471.5218.5
Ryan Tannehill502361.6418.5
Andy Dalton692441.5218.3
Cam Newton632321.5918.1
Joe Flacco592461.1917.3
Alex Smith562361.2717.0
Case Keenum522281.1916.2
Marcus Mariota612141.2515.8
Mitchell Trubisky412091.1715.4
Tyrod Taylor461991.1314.6

But factor in rushing production, and Rivers drops from 5th down to 12th – barely above average. He’s averaged only 1 rushing yard in his last 80 games, with no TD runs. Rivers hasn’t run for any touchdowns in 139 straight games, the longest such streak in NFL history.

With his limited rushing production, Rivers has averaged fewer fantasy points (per start) than eight other quarterbacks who haven’t been as productive as passers, including Newton, Wilson, Rodgers, Winston, Prescott, Cousins and Bortles.

That’s using traditional scoring – same as above, only with 1 point for every 10 rushing yards and 6 points for rushing touchdowns.

QUARTERBACKS PER GAME (last 5 years)
PlayerStPassTDPRunTDRFPG
Cam Newton632321.5935.4024.0
Drew Brees732932.071.1423.9
Ben Roethlisberger582951.883.0723.6
Russell Wilson802471.9426.1123.6
Aaron Rodgers712591.9418.1123.5
Jameis Winston702771.6915.1423.2
Matt Ryan792911.778.0622.9
Tom Brady762801.963.1122.9
Dak Prescott642471.5219.3322.4
Kirk Cousins792671.736.1922.2
Blake Bortles602451.5322.1521.7
Philip Rivers802831.811.0021.7
Carson Wentz562531.7314.0521.6
Ryan Fitzpatrick502521.5816.1621.5
Matthew Stafford722681.748.0421.5
Jared Goff542631.614.1120.8
Ryan Tannehill502361.6413.1420.6
Andy Dalton692441.529.1620.2
Tyrod Taylor461991.1336.3020.0
Alex Smith562361.2721.1620.0
Derek Carr782501.565.0419.7
Eli Manning672581.602.0319.7
Marcus Mariota612141.2522.2019.2
Mitchell Trubisky412091.1721.1718.5
Joe Flacco592461.193.1018.3
Case Keenum522281.196.0817.2

Fit will matter with Rivers. If he winds up starting for Colts, I will have some interest. But I’m not positive there will be a team that wants to commit to him as its opening day starter.

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index