In each of the last three years, the key pick at quarterback has been a second-year guy. Lamar Jackson last year, and Patrick Mahomes and Carson Wentz before him. Can Kyler Murray keep this trend going?
Murray was successful at times as a rookie. Like Jackson, he’s also a runner – not on the level of Jackson or Josh Allen, but Murray potentially could run for 500 yards and 6 TDs.
Arizona added DeAndre Hopkins, and that might add a dimension to the offense. Between Hopkins, Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk and a bunch of other contributors, I think they’ve got all the pass-catching firepower they’ll need.
For me, I think Mahomes and Jackson lead the way at the quarterback position. But after those guys, I like Murray about as much as anybody else. I think he’s in that next tier. Price tag is always key at the quarterback position, but Murray is a guy I wouldn’t be opposed to selecting.
Or this second-year deal could be just an aberration, helping me talk myself into a bad decision.
Below are the top 25 quarterbacks of the last five years – the top 5 from each year. That’s using per-start production, with only quarterbacks who started at least half the season eligible. Four of these guys were second-year quarterbacks, and I’ve got them in bold. Only one third-year quarterback (Deshaun Watson) and no rookies.
So while second-year quarterbacks have had some nice success stories recently, this is still a position that tends to be dominated by the veterans – the guys who really know what they’re doing.
TOP-5 QUARTERBACKS, LAST FIVE YEARS | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | St | Pass | TDP | Run | TDR | Pts |
2018 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 16 | 318.6 | 3.13 | 17.0 | .13 | 31.0 |
2019 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 15 | 208.5 | 2.40 | 80.4 | .47 | 30.9 |
2015 | Cam Newton, Car. | 16 | 239.8 | 2.19 | 39.8 | .63 | 28.5 |
2016 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 16 | 276.8 | 2.50 | 23.1 | .25 | 27.9 |
2018 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 16 | 320.6 | 2.13 | 6.1 | .19 | 26.8 |
2018 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 16 | 307.8 | 2.19 | 7.8 | .25 | 26.7 |
2019 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 16 | 319.3 | 2.06 | 15.6 | .06 | 26.7 |
2016 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 16 | 325.5 | 2.31 | 1.3 | .13 | 26.4 |
2019 | Ryan Tannehill, Ten. | 10 | 259.8 | 2.20 | 18.1 | .40 | 26.2 |
2017 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 248.9 | 2.13 | 36.6 | .19 | 26.0 |
2019 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 8 | 312.4 | 2.38 | 8.3 | .00 | 25.9 |
2016 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 16 | 309.0 | 2.38 | 7.3 | .00 | 25.9 |
2019 | • Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 15 | 256.8 | 1.73 | 27.5 | .53 | 25.9 |
2017 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 13 | 253.5 | 2.54 | 23.0 | .00 | 25.7 |
2016 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 15 | 282.7 | 2.07 | 22.7 | .13 | 25.7 |
2015 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 16 | 276.8 | 2.19 | 19.4 | .13 | 25.4 |
2015 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 16 | 298.1 | 2.25 | 3.3 | .19 | 25.4 |
2018 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 9 | 294.2 | 1.78 | 28.7 | .11 | 25.4 |
2018 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 16 | 287.1 | 2.44 | 9.3 | .00 | 25.3 |
2015 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 15 | 324.7 | 2.13 | .9 | .07 | 25.3 |
2015 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 251.5 | 2.13 | 34.6 | .06 | 24.9 |
2016 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 12 | 296.2 | 2.33 | 5.3 | .00 | 24.8 |
2017 | Alex Smith, K.C. | 15 | 269.5 | 1.73 | 23.7 | .07 | 23.2 |
2017 | Cam Newton, Car. | 16 | 206.4 | 1.38 | 47.1 | .38 | 22.9 |
2017 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 16 | 286.1 | 2.00 | 1.8 | .00 | 22.7 |
—Ian Allan