Fantasy Index

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Factoid

2nd-year QBs

Will Kyler Murray be latest breakout QB?

In each of the last three years, the key pick at quarterback has been a second-year guy. Lamar Jackson last year, and Patrick Mahomes and Carson Wentz before him. Can Kyler Murray keep this trend going?

Murray was successful at times as a rookie. Like Jackson, he’s also a runner – not on the level of Jackson or Josh Allen, but Murray potentially could run for 500 yards and 6 TDs.

Arizona added DeAndre Hopkins, and that might add a dimension to the offense. Between Hopkins, Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk and a bunch of other contributors, I think they’ve got all the pass-catching firepower they’ll need.

For me, I think Mahomes and Jackson lead the way at the quarterback position. But after those guys, I like Murray about as much as anybody else. I think he’s in that next tier. Price tag is always key at the quarterback position, but Murray is a guy I wouldn’t be opposed to selecting.

Or this second-year deal could be just an aberration, helping me talk myself into a bad decision.

Below are the top 25 quarterbacks of the last five years – the top 5 from each year. That’s using per-start production, with only quarterbacks who started at least half the season eligible. Four of these guys were second-year quarterbacks, and I’ve got them in bold. Only one third-year quarterback (Deshaun Watson) and no rookies.

So while second-year quarterbacks have had some nice success stories recently, this is still a position that tends to be dominated by the veterans – the guys who really know what they’re doing.

TOP-5 QUARTERBACKS, LAST FIVE YEARS
YearPlayerStPassTDPRunTDRPts
2018Patrick Mahomes, K.C.16318.63.1317.0.1331.0
2019Lamar Jackson, Balt.15208.52.4080.4.4730.9
2015Cam Newton, Car.16239.82.1939.8.6328.5
2016Aaron Rodgers, G.B.16276.82.5023.1.2527.9
2018Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.16320.62.136.1.1926.8
2018Matt Ryan, Atl.16307.82.197.8.2526.7
2019Jameis Winston, T.B.16319.32.0615.6.0626.7
2016Drew Brees, N.O.16325.52.311.3.1326.4
2019Ryan Tannehill, Ten.10259.82.2018.1.4026.2
2017Russell Wilson, Sea.16248.92.1336.6.1926.0
2019Matthew Stafford, Det.8312.42.388.3.0025.9
2016Matt Ryan, Atl.16309.02.387.3.0025.9
2019• Deshaun Watson, Hou.15256.81.7327.5.5325.9
2017Carson Wentz, Phil.13253.52.5423.0.0025.7
2016Andrew Luck, Ind.15282.72.0722.7.1325.7
2015Blake Bortles, Jac.16276.82.1919.4.1325.4
2015Tom Brady, N.E.16298.12.253.3.1925.4
2018Jameis Winston, T.B.9294.21.7828.7.1125.4
2018Andrew Luck, Ind.16287.12.449.3.0025.3
2015Drew Brees, N.O.15324.72.13.9.0725.3
2015Russell Wilson, Sea.16251.52.1334.6.0624.9
2016Tom Brady, N.E.12296.22.335.3.0024.8
2017Alex Smith, K.C.15269.51.7323.7.0723.2
2017Cam Newton, Car.16206.41.3847.1.3822.9
2017Tom Brady, N.E.16286.12.001.8.0022.7

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index