I’m not as optimistic on most with rookie Jonathan Taylor. He’s a big, fast dude, but I’m just not confident the overall production will be there.
I’m not knocking the pick. With his size and speed, I’m thinking there’s a chance he’ll bust loose for a couple of long touchdown runs. He averaged over 2,000 rushing yards in three years at Wisconsin, then ran a 4.39 at the combine – unusual speed for a 226-pounder. That’s a Barkley-like size-speed combo.
But to play up to where I think he’ll be drafted, Taylor would need to be used consistently and have a more well-rounded game. I don’t think that’s going to happen.
The Colts have a 1,000-yard rusher returning, Marlon Mack, and I expect he’ll be starting for at least the beginning of the season. Mack and Taylor should be sharing the load for the bulk of the season. (When one of these guys gets hurt, that’s when we might see the remaining back put up some notable rushing numbers).
The other angle here, however, is that I don’t think either of these backs will be used much in the passing game. We’ve already seen that with Mack; he caught 14 passes in 14 games last year, and wasn’t much more productive the previous season.
With Taylor, he wasn’t used much as a pass catcher at Wisconsin. They tried to get him the ball more in the capacity last year (26 catches, which isn’t fine) but just 8 catches in each of his first two seasons. I’m not saying he’s a stone-handed Alfred Morris kind of guy, but with him being a rookie, and considering how they use Mack, I think they’ll keep it simple, using him in a simplified role – his job will be to run the football.
They’ve also got Nyheim Hines, and I think he’ll come in for the obvious passing downs.
If we operate under the assumption that neither Mack nor Taylor is giving you much more than about a catch per game, then it will be hard for them to be notable fantasy contributors. In PPR formats, at least.
Check out the chart below, which shows per-game production for running backs last year, using PPR scoring. In bold are the running backs who were on pace to run for about 1,000 yards or more but who averaged under 10 receiving yards per game. In PPR scoring, all of them are outside the top 25.
Sony Michel, for example. Nice runner, but without any receiving production, he’s not even the most productive back (PPR scoring) on his own team. James White is up at 27th, while Michel is down at 43rd.
In most leagues, I think there will be an optimist who grabs Taylor pretty early. At the end of the year, when we look at the numbers, I think he’ll look more like one of those backs who are bolded.
| RUNNING BACKS PER GAME (2019) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Player | St | No | Rec | Run | Total | TD | PPR |
| 1 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 16 | 7.3 | 62.8 | 86.7 | 149.5 | 1.21 | 29.5 |
| 2 | Dalvin Cook, Min. | 14 | 3.8 | 37.1 | 81.1 | 118.1 | .93 | 21.2 |
| 3 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 15 | 1.2 | 13.7 | 102.7 | 116.4 | 1.20 | 20.0 |
| 4 | Aaron Jones, G.B. | 16 | 3.1 | 29.6 | 67.8 | 97.4 | 1.19 | 19.9 |
| 5 | Kenyan Drake (team), Ariz. | 8 | 3.5 | 21.4 | 80.4 | 101.8 | 1.04 | 19.9 |
| 6 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 16 | 3.4 | 26.3 | 84.8 | 111.1 | .88 | 19.7 |
| 7 | Austin Ekeler (total), LAC | 16 | 5.8 | 62.1 | 34.8 | 96.9 | .69 | 19.6 |
| 8 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 13 | 4.0 | 33.7 | 77.2 | 110.8 | .62 | 18.8 |
| 9 | Austin Ekeler (C), LAC | 12 | 5.7 | 60.3 | 28.1 | 88.3 | .58 | 18.0 |
| 10 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 14 | 5.8 | 38.1 | 56.9 | 95.0 | .43 | 17.9 |
| 11 | Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 15 | 5.1 | 34.8 | 76.8 | 111.6 | .20 | 17.4 |
| 12 | Mark Ingram, Balt. | 15 | 1.7 | 16.5 | 67.9 | 84.3 | 1.04 | 16.4 |
| 13 | Nick Chubb, Cle. | 16 | 2.3 | 17.4 | 93.4 | 110.8 | .50 | 16.3 |
| 14 | Chris Carson, Sea. | 15 | 2.5 | 17.7 | 82.0 | 99.7 | .60 | 16.0 |
| 15 | Raheem Mostert, S.F. | 9 | 1.3 | 19.2 | 66.6 | 85.8 | 1.00 | 15.9 |
| 16 | Melvin Gordon, LAC | 12 | 3.5 | 24.7 | 51.0 | 75.7 | .75 | 15.6 |
| 17 | Kenyan Drake, Mia.-Ari. | 14 | 3.6 | 24.6 | 58.4 | 83.0 | .60 | 15.4 |
| 18 | David Johnson, Ariz. | 8 | 3.9 | 40.4 | 37.8 | 78.1 | .63 | 15.4 |
| 19 | Todd Gurley, LAR | 15 | 2.1 | 13.8 | 57.1 | 70.9 | .96 | 14.9 |
| 20 | Josh Jacobs, Oak. | 13 | 1.5 | 12.8 | 88.5 | 101.2 | .54 | 14.9 |
| 21 | James Conner, Pitt. | 10 | 3.4 | 25.1 | 46.4 | 71.5 | .70 | 14.8 |
| 22 | LeVeon Bell, NYJ | 15 | 4.4 | 30.7 | 52.6 | 83.3 | .29 | 14.5 |
| 23 | Devonta Freeman, Atl. | 14 | 4.2 | 29.3 | 46.9 | 76.1 | .43 | 14.4 |
| 24 | Devin Singletary, Buff. | 10 | 2.9 | 19.4 | 69.2 | 88.6 | .40 | 14.2 |
| 25 | Joe Mixon, Cin. | 16 | 2.2 | 17.9 | 71.1 | 89.0 | .50 | 14.1 |
| 26 | Miles Sanders, Phil. | 16 | 3.1 | 31.8 | 51.1 | 82.9 | .40 | 13.8 |
| 27 | James White (3rd), N.E. | 15 | 4.8 | 43.0 | 17.5 | 60.5 | .42 | 13.4 |
| 28 | Damien Williams, K.C. | 11 | 2.7 | 19.4 | 45.3 | 64.6 | .64 | 13.0 |
| 29 | Marlon Mack, Ind. | 14 | 1.0 | 5.9 | 77.9 | 83.8 | .60 | 13.0 |
| 30 | Kareem Hunt (C), Cle. | 8 | 4.6 | 35.6 | 22.4 | 58.0 | .38 | 12.7 |
| 31 | Jordan Howard, Phil. | 9 | 1.1 | 7.7 | 58.3 | 66.0 | .78 | 12.4 |
| 32 | Phillip Lindsay, Den. | 16 | 2.2 | 12.3 | 63.2 | 75.4 | .44 | 12.4 |
| 33 | David Montgomery, Chi. | 16 | 1.6 | 11.6 | 55.6 | 67.1 | .44 | 10.9 |
| 34 | Kerryon Johnson, Det. | 8 | 1.3 | 15.9 | 50.4 | 66.3 | .50 | 10.9 |
| 35 | Ronald Jones, T.B. | 16 | 1.9 | 19.3 | 45.3 | 64.6 | .38 | 10.6 |
| 36 | Jamaal Williams (C), G.B. | 14 | 2.8 | 18.1 | 32.9 | 50.9 | .43 | 10.5 |
| 37 | Matt Breida, S.F. | 9 | 1.8 | 12.2 | 60.2 | 72.4 | .22 | 10.4 |
| 38 | Tarik Cohen (3rd), Chi. | 16 | 4.9 | 28.5 | 13.3 | 41.8 | .19 | 10.2 |
| 39 | Adrian Peterson, Was. | 15 | 1.1 | 9.5 | 59.9 | 69.3 | .33 | 10.1 |
| 40 | Carlos Hyde, Hou. | 16 | .6 | 2.6 | 66.9 | 69.5 | .38 | 9.8 |
| 41 | Duke Johnson (3rd), Hou. | 16 | 2.8 | 25.6 | 25.6 | 51.3 | .31 | 9.8 |
| 42 | Tevin Coleman (C), S.F. | 14 | 1.5 | 12.9 | 38.9 | 51.7 | .50 | 9.7 |
| 43 | Sony Michel, N.E. | 16 | .8 | 5.9 | 57.0 | 62.9 | .44 | 9.7 |
| 44 | LeSean McCoy (C), K.C. | 13 | 2.2 | 13.9 | 35.8 | 49.7 | .38 | 9.4 |
| 45 | Royce Freeman (C), Den. | 16 | 2.7 | 16.0 | 31.0 | 47.0 | .25 | 8.9 |
| 46 | Chris Thompson (3rd), Was. | 11 | 3.8 | 34.4 | 12.5 | 46.9 | .00 | 8.5 |
| 47 | Rex Burkhead (C), N.E. | 13 | 2.1 | 21.5 | 23.2 | 44.7 | .23 | 7.9 |
| 48 | Rashaad Penny (C), Sea. | 10 | .8 | 8.3 | 37.0 | 45.3 | .40 | 7.7 |
| 49 | Jaylen Samuels (3rd), Pitt. | 14 | 3.4 | 21.8 | 12.5 | 34.3 | .14 | 7.6 |
| 50 | Nyheim Hines (3rd), Ind. | 16 | 2.8 | 20.0 | 12.4 | 32.4 | .25 | 7.5 |
—Ian Allan
P.S. -- when I first saw this photo, I didn't notice the white tape on his elbow. I thought he had T-Rex arms. ("Nice size, great speed, but with those tiny arms, I think fumbles could be a major issue.")