When a rookie pass rusher posts strong sack numbers, what are the chances he'll come back and post similar numbers in Year 2? That's a question faced by those in IDP leagues, hoping to cash in on production from guys like Josh Allen, Nick Bosa, Maxx Crosby and Harold Landry.

Those rookies each had at least 8 sacks last year: Allen (10.5) for Jacksonville, Crosby (10) for Oakland, and Bosa and Landry (9 apiece) for San Francisco and Tennessee. The odds of them posting similar sack totals in 2020 look decent, based on recent history.

Over the last 20 years, 33 players have posted at least 8 sacks in their first seasons. Exactly one-third (11) of those players have come back and posted more sacks in their second season. An additional eight declined by 2 or fewer sacks. So roughly 60 percent either improved or declined only slightly the next year.

Player Tm Year 1st2ndChange
Shawne MerrimanSDG200510.017.0+7.0
Von MillerDEN201111.518.5+7.0
Aldon SmithSFO201114.019.5+5.5
Elvis DumervilDEN20068.512.5+4.0
Yannick NgakoueJAX20168.012.0+4.0
Clay MatthewsGNB200910.013.5+3.5
DeMarcus WareDAL20058.011.5+3.5
Aaron DonaldSTL20149.011.0+2.0
Jared AllenKAN20049.011.0+2.0
Joey BosaSDG201610.512.5+2.0
Kevin WilliamsMIN200310.511.5+1.0
Ezekiel AnsahDET20138.07.5-0.5
Tamba HaliKAN20068.07.5-0.5
Jabaal SheardCLE20118.57.0-1.5
Terrell SuggsBAL200312.010.5-1.5
Brian UrlacherCHI20008.06.0-2.0
Corey SimonPHI20009.57.5-2.0
Dwight FreeneyIND200213.011.0-2.0
Justin SmithCIN20018.56.5-2.0
Brian OrakpoWAS200911.08.5-2.5
Stylez G. WhiteTAM20078.05.0-3.0
Preston SmithWAS20158.04.5-3.5
Carlos DunlapCIN20109.54.5-5.0
Carlos HallTEN20028.03.0-5.0
Darren HowardNOR200011.06.0-5.0
Julius PeppersCAR200212.07.0-5.0
Kendrell BellPIT20019.04.0-5.0
Bruce IrvinSEA20128.02.0-6.0
Kamerion WimbleyCLE200611.05.0-6.0
Ndamukong SuhDET201010.04.0-6.0
Mark Anderson CHI200612.05.0-7.0
Carl LawsonCIN20178.51.0-7.5
Bradley ChubbDEN201812.01.0-11.0
Josh Allen JAC201910.5??
Maxx Crosby OAK201910.0??
Nick BosaSFO20199.0??
Harold LandryTEN20199.0??

Scanning the list, I notice that the two biggest decliners (Chubb, Lawson) got hurt the next season. In any case, odds look pretty good two or three of the four are in line for 8-plus sacks again.

--Andy Richardson