When a rookie pass rusher posts strong sack numbers, what are the chances he'll come back and post similar numbers in Year 2? That's a question faced by those in IDP leagues, hoping to cash in on production from guys like Josh Allen, Nick Bosa, Maxx Crosby and Harold Landry.
Those rookies each had at least 8 sacks last year: Allen (10.5) for Jacksonville, Crosby (10) for Oakland, and Bosa and Landry (9 apiece) for San Francisco and Tennessee. The odds of them posting similar sack totals in 2020 look decent, based on recent history.
Over the last 20 years, 33 players have posted at least 8 sacks in their first seasons. Exactly one-third (11) of those players have come back and posted more sacks in their second season. An additional eight declined by 2 or fewer sacks. So roughly 60 percent either improved or declined only slightly the next year.
| 8-SACK ROOKIES, ONE YEAR LATER | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Tm | Year | 1st | 2nd | Change |
| Shawne Merriman | SDG | 2005 | 10.0 | 17.0 | +7.0 |
| Von Miller | DEN | 2011 | 11.5 | 18.5 | +7.0 |
| Aldon Smith | SFO | 2011 | 14.0 | 19.5 | +5.5 |
| Elvis Dumervil | DEN | 2006 | 8.5 | 12.5 | +4.0 |
| Yannick Ngakoue | JAX | 2016 | 8.0 | 12.0 | +4.0 |
| Clay Matthews | GNB | 2009 | 10.0 | 13.5 | +3.5 |
| DeMarcus Ware | DAL | 2005 | 8.0 | 11.5 | +3.5 |
| Aaron Donald | STL | 2014 | 9.0 | 11.0 | +2.0 |
| Jared Allen | KAN | 2004 | 9.0 | 11.0 | +2.0 |
| Joey Bosa | SDG | 2016 | 10.5 | 12.5 | +2.0 |
| Kevin Williams | MIN | 2003 | 10.5 | 11.5 | +1.0 |
| Ezekiel Ansah | DET | 2013 | 8.0 | 7.5 | -0.5 |
| Tamba Hali | KAN | 2006 | 8.0 | 7.5 | -0.5 |
| Jabaal Sheard | CLE | 2011 | 8.5 | 7.0 | -1.5 |
| Terrell Suggs | BAL | 2003 | 12.0 | 10.5 | -1.5 |
| Brian Urlacher | CHI | 2000 | 8.0 | 6.0 | -2.0 |
| Corey Simon | PHI | 2000 | 9.5 | 7.5 | -2.0 |
| Dwight Freeney | IND | 2002 | 13.0 | 11.0 | -2.0 |
| Justin Smith | CIN | 2001 | 8.5 | 6.5 | -2.0 |
| Brian Orakpo | WAS | 2009 | 11.0 | 8.5 | -2.5 |
| Stylez G. White | TAM | 2007 | 8.0 | 5.0 | -3.0 |
| Preston Smith | WAS | 2015 | 8.0 | 4.5 | -3.5 |
| Carlos Dunlap | CIN | 2010 | 9.5 | 4.5 | -5.0 |
| Carlos Hall | TEN | 2002 | 8.0 | 3.0 | -5.0 |
| Darren Howard | NOR | 2000 | 11.0 | 6.0 | -5.0 |
| Julius Peppers | CAR | 2002 | 12.0 | 7.0 | -5.0 |
| Kendrell Bell | PIT | 2001 | 9.0 | 4.0 | -5.0 |
| Bruce Irvin | SEA | 2012 | 8.0 | 2.0 | -6.0 |
| Kamerion Wimbley | CLE | 2006 | 11.0 | 5.0 | -6.0 |
| Ndamukong Suh | DET | 2010 | 10.0 | 4.0 | -6.0 |
| Mark Anderson | CHI | 2006 | 12.0 | 5.0 | -7.0 |
| Carl Lawson | CIN | 2017 | 8.5 | 1.0 | -7.5 |
| Bradley Chubb | DEN | 2018 | 12.0 | 1.0 | -11.0 |
| Josh Allen | JAC | 2019 | 10.5 | ? | ? |
| Maxx Crosby | OAK | 2019 | 10.0 | ? | ? |
| Nick Bosa | SFO | 2019 | 9.0 | ? | ? |
| Harold Landry | TEN | 2019 | 9.0 | ? | ? |
Scanning the list, I notice that the two biggest decliners (Chubb, Lawson) got hurt the next season. In any case, odds look pretty good two or three of the four are in line for 8-plus sacks again.
--Andy Richardson