If you look at most cheat sheets, you'll notice a trend: It's all about the running backs. And there's good reason for it, too. Fantasy players are looking for consistency, and there are a lot of unknowns this year. When you think of all the things that have to go right for a pass play to work, you can expect a learning curve for a lot of teams with new quarterbacks, receivers, coaches, or playbooks. Handing the ball off seems like a safer bet. So it makes sense to select guys who will get the bulk of the work.
That's great, to a point. But you'll have to decide when it's prudent to buck that trend. I say you should do it earlier rather than later.
If you have a pick in the top half of your draft, I won't argue too hard against a running back selection. But in the back half, you might have to go against the grain. Instead of taking the eighth back on the board, you could choose the top quarterback or receiver. Even if the stats suggest something different, I think it's better to forge your own path than get a second-tier runner as your first selection.
If you don't, you're slotting yourself in the middle or end of every run. You won't have the best anything; just the "right" guy to take on a list made in August. You'll have a middle-of-the-pack team destined for a middle-of-the-pack finish. You won't embarrass yourself, but you'll probably be congratulating someone else in a few months. Why settle for that conclusion?
A few caveats, of course. If a running back you really wanted falls to your spot, you're not following the pack. You're catching a break and getting your guy. Your scoring system will, of course, also influence your strategy. And I'm not saying to reach for a quarterback because too many running backs have been selected. Don't take a different path just to be a contrarian.
What I am saying is to reject the FOMO (fear of missing out). It might make you uncomfortable to see that everyone has their starting backs set except you. But you're not really missing out on anything. If someone has the seventh and 15th best backs, are they really in a position to dominate you? And those are their best players. If they don't produce, odds are that team is in trouble.
With a little luck (the magical ingredient every successful team requires) you can have decent starters that will hold their own, while your other positions provide stable production week in and week out. And with an injury or shrewd waiver pickup, you might even do better than that. But if you play it safe, you'll never know.
Besides, we're talking about a position that has very few three-down players. Almost every team has a third-down specialist, or a rookie they want to see in action, or a guy for short yardage. So the "right" pick might not be all that much more productive than the ones you "settle" for. And your other positions should be stronger than theirs.
I've been playing long enough to remember when it was all running backs all the time. The standard strategy was to get your backfield in order and go from there. And in time, people started having success going away from that strategy, and then players were avoiding running backs on purpose. Eventually we had a good mix of strategies, and different ones could play out in the same draft, with multiple owners walking away happy with what they had. And things played out the way they played out. The best teams (and strategies) would reveal themsevles over the course of the season.
Have we come full circle with running backs? Honestly, I have no idea. This is such an unusual year, I think there's a tendency to play it safe and avoid as many unknowns as possible. But when I see mock drafts where someone in spot nine takes the ninth back on their list, something is wrong. Unless a guy they really like fell to that spot, it's a recipe for failure.
You have to decide the right time to pick a different position, but I suggest doing it early enough so you're starting the trend. And if everyone keeps selecting running backs after you, that's fine. It means you're closer to another top pick at a different position if you so choose. You'll likely struggle with your backfield, but guess what? Some of them will, too. Only they won't have the guys you have at other positions. It's a risk, but I think it's one you should consider taking. Good luck on draft day.
Have you already decided on a running back in the first round? At what spot would you consider taking another position? What's your strategy heading into your draft or auction? Share your thoughts below.