TENNESSEE (vs Jacksonville)
This is a very favorable matchup for the Titans. They've won five of the last six meetings, scoring over 30 points in three of them. If there's a concern it's that ...
one player might do so well that nobody else gets much to do. But that wasn't the case in the game in Nashville late last season, with the Titans putting their quarterback, running back and top wideout among the very best performers of the week. ... Derrick Henry has to circle this matchup on his calendar. He's faced them six times the last three seasons, and almost all of them have gone very well.
| Henry versus the Jaguars, 2017-present | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Site | Run | Rec | Tot | TD |
| 2017 | Jax. | 92 | 0 | 92 | 1 |
| 2017 | Tenn. | 51 | 66 | 117 | 1 |
| 2018 | Jax. | 57 | 0 | 57 | 0 |
| 2018 | Tenn. | 238 | 0 | 238 | 4 |
| 2019 | Jax. | 44 | 2 | 46 | 1 |
| 2019 | Tenn. | 159 | 16 | 175 | 2 |
| Avg. | 107 | 14 | 121 | 1.5 | |
Tennessee won five of those games; the one they lost (in Jacksonville) was Henry's lowest rushing total. This one's in Tennessee, looks like a win, and it's a defense he should have some success against. The Colts rushed for only 88 yards last
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week, but averaged 4.0 yards per attempt; they just got away from it early, with Marlon Mack getting hurt. Running backs still accounted for both of their touchdowns. Jacksonville had a bottom-5 run defense a year ago and allowed 23 touchdowns, more than anyone but Carolina. Henry was pretty well contained by a good Denver defense most of last week but still finished with 116 rushing yards, adding 3 receptions for 15 more. He should be very good here. ... If Henry's tearing it up, Ryan Tannehill might finish with lesser numbers. That was often how things went for Marcus Mariota, under 170 yards and with no touchdowns in both 2018 games. So makes sense to lower expectations for the passing game, under the idea that the offense will have a lot of success on the ground. But in Henry's biggest performance, late last season, Tannehill passed for 259 yards, ran for 40 more, and had 4 total touchdowns. And Jacksonville just let Philip Rivers throw for 363 yards and a touchdown. So it's possible, but the better bet is that Henry leads the way, leaving Tannehill to pick his spots to throw, finishing with below-average numbers. Jacksonville was one of three teams to allow more touchdowns rushing (23) than passing (22) a year ago. ... That lesser projection filters down to the wideouts, and there should be three involved players. A.J. Brown and Corey Davis will be out there most plays; they each saw 8 targets last week. Brown was the marquee performer last year, Davis the disappointment, but their roles flipped in Week 1; Davis went over 100 yards. That won't be the case every week, but he's healthy and motivated in a contract year, so it's a promising sign for the rest of the season. Brown will generally see tighter coverage, which could mean top pick C.J. Henderson. Too early to say that will be a major obstacle, but regardless, with lowered expectations for the passing game, we're slotting these receivers modestly. Brown caught just 4 passes with Henry running wild in the home game last year, but one went for a 65-yard touchdown; he finished with 130 yards. Risky to sit that potential down, but he'll need to make an impact on fewer targets. Adam Humphries rose up with a 7-target, 6-catch game last week, but for just 47 yards. He's running shorter routes, and won't be as busy in this one (Tannehill attempted 43 passes at Denver). Humphries went for 93 yards at Jacksonville last year, but that was with a different quarterback. Both he and Davis were under 30 yards in Tannehill's start. The Jaguars also allowed only 10 touchdowns to wide receivers a year ago. ... Jonnu Smith caught 4 passes and a touchdown at Denver; the team's other tight ends caught 3 and a score. Jacksonville allowed nearly as many touchdowns to the position (8) as wide receivers a year ago. Smith caught only 2 passes in the two games a year ago, though. ... The team is sticking with Stephen Gostkowski even after he went 1 of 4 on field goals last week, also missing an extra point. Presumably he'll get things ironed out, but might be better to see him have a more efficient performance before putting him in a lineup. Jacksonville's defense wasn't good at limiting teams to field goals anyway last season (22). ... The Titans Defense was a letdown against Drew Lock, with no sacks or interceptions (only takeaway on a fumble recovery). Gardner Minshew looks like a good matchup for sacks (2.5 per game for his career, and 4 in Week 1), but not takeaways (6 interceptions in his 15 games). Tennessee didn't get anything off him in his start against them last year (it sacked Nick Foles three times in the home win).