ATLANTA (vs Chicago)
Two games in it looks like the Falcons will be strong on offense and soft on defense. Granted, they've faced two of the league's best offenses (Seattle and Dallas), while this one should be more their speed. But this is also ...
... ... probably the best defense they've seen. The game's in Atlanta, but it looks like a below-average situation for their offense. ... It's a difficult situation for Matt Ryan. Chicago had a top-10 pass defense a year ago, allowing just 17 touchdown passes. It's on that same course so far, allowing a single touchdown pass through two games. Matthew Stafford didn't have Kenny Golladay, while Daniel Jones isn't nearly at the level of Ryan, but impressive nonetheless. The Bears have faced seven what we'll call Ryan-level quarterbacks since the start of last season, and none have put up huge numbers.
| Top QBs versus Chicago | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Com | Att | Yds | TD |
| Rodgers | 18 | 30 | 203 | 1 |
| Rivers | 19 | 29 | 201 | 1 |
| Wentz | 26 | 39 | 239 | 1 |
| Prescott | 27 | 49 | 334 | 1 |
| Rodgers | 16 | 33 | 203 | 1 |
| Mahomes | 23 | 33 | 251 | 2 |
| Stafford | 24 | 42 | 297 | 1 |
Only two of those players threw for more than 260 yards, and only Mahomes threw more than 1 touchdown. Before downgrading Ryan too greatly, however, note that Chicago lost five of those games. Most of those opponents have ...
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... better ground games than Atlanta, and were able to win with their quarterbacks not doing as much. That's not something the Falcons can or will do, so Ryan is still likely to lead the way. But it will be harder for him to get his numbers, and 2 TDs looks like his ceiling. Makes sense to rank him lower than usual. ... Chicago also had a top-10 run defense a year ago, but might not be quite that good. They allowed 16 rushing scores (only six teams allowed more) and let Adrian Peterson go for 93 yards (and 6.6 per attempt) in Week 1. No credit for keeping the Giants ground game (after losing Saquon Barkley early) in check last week. But Todd Gurley hasn't shown a lot the first two games. He's averaging just 3.3 per attempt and was particularly ineffective (21 for 61) at Dallas. Atlanta is giving snaps to both Ito Smith and Brian Hill, and Smith was more effective on his limited chances against Dallas (5 for 20) while Hill has been a bigger part of the passing game (catching all 4 passes thrown his way for 19 yards). Atlanta hasn't gotten Gurley going at all as a pass catcher. Without that receiving work, will be difficult for Gurley to put up standout numbers. Maybe the Falcons try to work the run more than usual here, but that's not really how the offense is built, and that's not how Dirk Koetter calls plays. Atlanta ranked 30th in rushing a year ago, and this looks like the same kind of team. ... Tough matchup or no, best not to mess around with sitting down Calvin Ridley, who's caught 16 passes for 239 yards and 4 touchdowns the first two games. His younger brother Riley will be on the opposing sidelines, should any additional motivation be needed. Julio Jones comes off a down game, though it should have been better -- Jones dropped what would have been a 41-yard touchdown last week on a trick play from Russell Gage. Jones says he was affected by playing through a hamstring injury. Gage has caught 15 passes the first two weeks, but this is a week to lower expectations. Passing production should be down, so unlikely he can keep his pace thus far going. ... Hayden Hurst caught only 3 passes (with Ryan throwing 54 times) in the opener, but he and Ryan clicked at Dallas (5 for 72, with a touchdown). Two other first-round tight ends, T.J. Hockenson and Evan Engram, put up strong numbers against this defense this season, combining for 11 catches for 121 yards and a touchdown. ... Younghoe Koo has already kicked 6 field goals, averaging 11 points. Chicago's first two opponents have averaged 8, and it's reasonable to think Atlanta might be settling for field goals at the end of multiple possessions. ... The Falcons Defense has an ordinary 4 sacks and is still looking for its first interception. It's recovered 3 fumbles. Mitchell Trubisky hasn't proved to be a very good quarterback, but he also hasn't beaten himself with sacks and turnovers. Since the start of last season he's thrown 12 interceptions, while taking about 2.5 sacks per game. Atlanta doesn't have a notable returner (it's returned only one punt so far).