The Bucs travel to Denver this weekend, and the betting money has them winning comfortably. The line opened with them favored by 3.5, and now it's 6. People with money to spend love them some Tom Brady.
It's true that Denver will be starting lightly regarded journeyman Jeff Driskel at quarterback, and that the backup will be Blake Bortles -- who doesn't want to see Bortles in a game again? But before betting the mortgage on the Bucs, keep in mind that Denver has generally been a frustrating place for Brady to play.
In 11 career games in Denver, Brady has gone just 4-7. That includes 0-3 in playoff games. All of those game were with New England. It's a new era and a new orangey red uniform, but he hasn't left Denver with a win very often. Other career numbers pretty mediocre, particularly completion percentage and passer rating.
| BRADY IN DENVER | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Result | Cmp% | Yds | TD | Int | Rate |
| 2001 | L 20-31 | 65.8 | 203 | 2 | 4 | 57.1 |
| 2003 | W 30-26 | 57.1 | 350 | 3 | 1 | 108 |
| 2005 | L 20-28 | 52.2 | 299 | 1 | 0 | 79.9 |
| 2005* | L 13-27 | 55.6 | 341 | 1 | 2 | 74 |
| 2009 | L 17-20 | 57.6 | 215 | 2 | 0 | 97.4 |
| 2011 | W 41-23 | 67.7 | 320 | 2 | 0 | 117.3 |
| 2013* | L 16-26 | 63.2 | 277 | 1 | 0 | 93.9 |
| 2015 | L 24-30 | 54.8 | 280 | 3 | 0 | 99.3 |
| 2015* | L 18-20 | 48.2 | 310 | 1 | 2 | 56.4 |
| 2016 | W 16-3 | 50.0 | 188 | 0 | 0 | 68.2 |
| 2017 | W 41-16 | 73.5 | 266 | 3 | 0 | 125.4 |
| Career | 4-7 | 58.7 | 277 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 88.8 |
Denver has a really banged-up offense: no Courtland Sutton, no Phillip Lindsay, no Drew Lock. And their defense won't have Von Miller, A.J. Bouye, DreMont Jones or DeMarcus Walker, guys of varying importance, but definitely not as tough as they'd have been at full strength. Most likely, the Bucs will go in and leave with Brady's 5th career win in the Mile High City.
If so, it won't erase the sting of those playoff losses, but Brady will probably feel pretty good about winning his last career game there.
--Andy Richardson