CAROLINA (at Atlanta)
The Panthers have one of the key offenses for Week 5. They're a seemingly modest team, but they've punched above their weight so far -- slightly above-average in yards, and with a credible 10 touchdowns. This time out, they're playing against what looks pretty certain to be ...
a bottom-5 defense. So far only one team has allowed more yards and only one has allowed more points. Three of Atlanta's games have been against butt-kicker offenses (Seattle, Dallas, Green Bay) but this looks like a pretty suspect group. And it's a situation where everyone in the locker room can now see that Dan Quinn is probably going to be fired before the season is finished. ... Mike Davis looks like a possible top-10 back. He's a capable-enough fill-in. He ran for 84 yards last week, averaging over 5 yards per carry, and they use him a lot in the passing game. Since Christian McCaffrey got hurt, Davis has caught 8, 8 and 5 passes in the last three weeks. The Panthers have scored 2 rushing touchdowns in three of their four games. Here Davis is running against a bad team on a short week. Now, Atlanta has actually played ...
This report is taken from today's Week 5 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 19 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... pretty good run defense so far. Despite all of the yards and points they've allowed, the Falcons rank 11th against the run. The high-powered Packers ran for only 88 yards against them on Monday night. Neither Chris Carson nor David Montgomery averaged better than 3.5 yards per carry against them. But Atlanta is now a beaten-down team, with increased potential for rushing touchdowns. And Davis is both a pass catcher and a runner. We're expecting he'll finish with better stats than a lot of more heralded backs. Davis has averaged 102 total yards in his two starts, with 2 TDs. ... Teddy Bridgewater isn't even rostered in a lot of fantasy leagues, but he looks capable of maybe posting top-10 numbers this week. With innovative Joe Brady scheming up the plays, he's been pretty good. He's thrown only 4 TDs, but he's averaging 287 passing yards per game. Here he's working against arguably the league's worst pass defense. The Falcons have played four games, and all four of those opposing quarterbacks have put up 4 TDs (Dak Prescott threw only one, but he ran in 3 TDs). The Falcons, of course, have had to play against Prescott, Wilson and Rodgers. But Nick Foles came off the bench and lit up this secondary, with the Bears finishing with 316 passing yards and 4 TDs. Strange to say, but Bridgewater looks like a pretty safe choice for 300 yards and multiple touchdowns. ... With the kind of passing production the Falcons are allowing, it will be a surprise if either Robby Anderson or DJ Moore doesn't have a big game. They're on pace to finish the season with 184 combined catches. Anderson has the speed to get deep (he caught a 75-yard touchdown in the opener) but so far they're using him primarily on the shorter routes. He's caught 28 passes (7 per week) but has averaged only 11 yards per catch outside of that one unusual long play. Moore has the ability to be a short-range guy, but he so far has been targeted on more downfield shots. He's caught 10 fewer passes but is averaging 16 yards per catch. If form holds, Anderson will catch more passes but Moore is more likely to hit on a long touchdown. Four weeks in, Anderson is averaging 19 more yards per week, but if we set aside that one play (which involved a defensive back error) these guys have been almost identical. ... If we're getting into picking third receivers, Curtis Samuel looks like one of the best this week. Great matchup, and so far Samuel has averaged 47 receiving and 9 rushing yards. ... The Falcons have allowed touchdown passes to tight ends in every game. Robert Tonyan, of all people, caught 3 TDs against them on Monday night. The previous week, Jimmy Graham caught a pair. So there's some sense to taking a wild flyer on Ian Thomas. But Thomas has hardly been involved in Carolina's offense. He caught a touchdown on Sunday, but he's caught only 5 passes for 30 yards. They've got another tight end who plays just as much, Chris Manhertz, and his numbers are pretty similar after four games (3 catches, 29 yards). ... Joey Slye looks like an above-average kicker. He's accurate, and the Panthers have been able to move the ball in all but one of their games. He's averaging almost 10 points per game. Here the Panthers are playing against one of the league's leakier defenses. ... Atlanta is falling apart before our eyes, but we'll pass on the Panthers Defense. Four weeks in, it's sitting with only 3 sacks and 1 interception (those aren't per-game averages -- those are the season totals). Matt Ryan hasn't been able to deliver wins, but he's above-average in both the sack and interception categories.