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October 19, 2020

Updated strength of schedule

Rams, Titans have bumps on upcoming schedules

Strength of schedule plays a role in how offenses perform. That’s half of the equation, after all. It’s not only the 11 guys on the field, but the 11 guys that they’re playing against. And some of the best offenses have difficult schedules coming up.

Strength of schedule plays a role in how offenses perform. That’s half of the equation, after all. It’s not only the 11 guys on the field, but the 11 guys that they’re playing against. And some of the best offenses have difficult schedules coming up.

There’s a variety of ways to look at this. I used wins last week. This time, I’m using points allowed. You take the points given up by each defense, plug those into the schedule and see what it yields.

And if we look at just the next seven games for each team, it looks like the Titans, Rams, Bills and Seahawks will play the hardest schedules in the near future. Those are the four teams under 23 points per game. (I’m not forecasting that any of these teams will average under 23 points in their next seven games, but this is what’s been allowed by the defenses they’re about to face.)

The Eagles, Bears, Jaguars and Washington, meanwhile, project to play the easiest upcoming schedules. Their next seven games are against teams tending to allow over 27 points per game. Players on those offenses seem more likely to be helped along by facing lesser opposition.

Note: I posted this article earlier, with one eye on the computer and another on the Monday night games. With that distraction, I accidently took the next six for each team (but divided them by seven games, causing lower totals). I’ve got the corrected numbers below, and they’re updated after the conclusion of all Week 6 games.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (next 7 games)
RkTeamAvg Pts
1.Philadelphia29.0
2.Washington27.6
3.Chicago27.6
4.Jacksonville27.2
5.Atlanta27.1
6.Cleveland27.0
7.Minnesota26.6
8.Indianapolis26.4
9.Carolina26.4
10.Cincinnati26.1
11.Detroit26.0
12.Green Bay26.0
13.Tampa Bay25.9
14.Las Vegas25.9
15.Pittsburgh25.6
16.LA Chargers25.5
17.NY Giants25.4
18.Dallas25.4
19.Denver25.3
20.San Francisco25.3
21.Houston24.9
22.New England24.5
23.NY Jets24.1
24.New Orleans24.0
25.Kansas City24.0
26.Baltimore24.0
27.Arizona23.4
28.Miami23.3
29.Seattle22.9
30.Buffalo22.9
31.Tennessee21.6
32.LA Rams20.6

—Ian Allan

Ryan Tannehill strength of schedule
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