BUFFALO (at NYJ)
The Bills have taken their lumps the last two weeks -- outclassed by Tennessee and Kansas City -- but here's a week where they should get back on track (and probably in a big way). The Jets have been a dumpster fire ...
... so far, winless and allowing more points than all but three teams. The Bills beat them 27-17 back in Week 1 and really should have scored a few more touchdowns (they had a couple of ill-advised fumbles and took their foot off the gas in the second half). ... Josh Allen should put up top-5 quarterbacking numbers. He's struggled recently against better defenses, but this is his kind of opponent. When these teams met in Week 1, he put up 369 combined yards, with 3 first-half touchdowns. Allen could have been even better. He misfired on a pair of plays where guys were wide open for touchdowns, and he killed a pair of drives with unnecessary fumbles. And then the Bills turned things down in the second half. This is a "trap game" in that ...
This report is taken from today's Week 7 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 18 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... ... Buffalo in its next two will play New England and Seattle, but will be a surprise if Allen doesn't have a good game here. ... Buffalo doesn't have much of a running game. Set aside Josh Allen's scrambles, and they're averaging only 68 rushing yards, and with just one rushing touchdown. So expectations should be modest for Devin Singletary. He isn't an unusually talented back, and they haven't made much of an effort to get him going in a traditional way. He's averaged 45 rushing and 23 receiving yards so far, with one touchdown (Allen has scored 3 of the team's 4 rushing touchdowns on his own). The Jets have a below-average run defense, but it's not as terrible as many other areas on their team. Singletary wasn't effective in the earlier Jets game, carrying 9 times for 30 yards. He was splitting time at that point in the season, with Zack Moss carrying 9 times for only 11 yards (but with a touchdown catch). Lately, it's been more Singletary and less Moss (who was out for a few weeks with a toe injury). With four teams on byes and other teams also struggling to run it much at all, Singletary makes sense as a warm-body starter in typical fantasy leagues, but unlikely he comes up with a big game. ... Buffalo's wide receivers will put up plenty of production, but this is a four-receiver team. John Brown and Gabriel Davis combined on Monday night for only 1 catch for 7 yards, but they're viable parts of this offense. They've each caught 2 TDs, just like Cole Beasley (and only one less than Stefon Diggs). Davis is just a rookie, but he's a lot bigger than all of their other wide receivers, and he's made a lot of big catches. In each of the last four games, he's been on the field for over half of their plays; he caught touchdowns at Miami and Las Vegas and had a touchdown at Tennessee nullified by a penalty. Brown hasn't caught a pass in three of their last four games (he missed one of those and might be playing hurt), but he's probably their best deep threat. He's their fastest receiver. He caught 10 passes for 152 yards and 2 TDs in their first two games, and he's still that same guy. In the earlier Jets game, Brown caught 6 for 70, with a touchdown. Beasley looks pretty similar to those guys but tends to see just a few more balls. So far he's averaged 4.7 catches for 60 yards, with 2 TDs in six games. Diggs is the clear No. 1 option here. He's averaging 7 catches for 93 yards, but with just 3 of the team's 16 TD catches. Diggs caught 8 for 86 in the earlier Jets game, but with no touchdowns. ... If you're looking for a tight end on the waiver wire, this is one place to consider. The Jets have allowed 5 TD passes to tight ends in their last five games. Dawson Knox was open for a touchdown in the earlier game, but Josh Allen missed him on the throw, sending it way over his head. And Knox has more speed to get downfield than other tight ends. But Knox has a calf injury that kept him out of all of their practices last week, so we can't say with any certainty that he'll even play. If Knox sits out, then perhaps Tyler Kroft. When Knox missed the Rams game, Kroft caught 2 TDs on short flips around the goal line. ... Typically the highest-scoring kickers tend to come from the best offenses -- getting on the field more -- but Tyler Bass hasn't had a great year. Heading into the KC game, he was averaging just over 6 points per week. Blame that on the offense tending to score touchdowns rather than field goals. That likely will be the case again on Sunday, considering the way the Jets are struggling. Bass should get on the field plenty, at least. And New York has been a bottom-10 team against kickers, allowing 8.5 points per week. ... We're ranking the Bills Defense higher than usual. It's been a disappointment so far, but playing against the struggling Jets creates a lot of potential. New York has allowed 18 sacks and 5 interceptions in its first six games. Buffalo in its last three games against Sam Darnold has come away with 9 sacks and 2 interceptions. And Andre Roberts has had a couple good kick returns recently; some chance he breaks something against his former team.