SEATTLE (vs NY Jets)
The Seahawks have emphasized the run in recent games, but should play things a little differently this week. The Jets have been a lot better defending the run (11th) than pass (30th), and although they just fired coordinator Gregg Williams, they're not ...
... going to be running an entirely new system in the final four games of the season. Run or pass, the Seattle offense should be very good in this one. Only three teams have allowed more yards than the Jets, and only two have allowed more points. ... Midway through the season, Russell Wilson was on pace to break Peyton Manning's record for touchdown passes (he had 26 in his first seven games). That's long gone (he has 6 in his last five). Part of it is by choice (a run-driven win over Arizona), part due to matchups with credible pass defenses. The Jets are 30th in pass defense, surprising for a winless team (typically those clubs are getting beat up on the ground). The Jets have allowed six 300-yard passing performances, including four in the last six contests. They've allowed 24 touchdown passes, a ...
This report is taken from today's Week 14 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 22 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... bottom-5 number. New York has a new defensive coordinator after promoting the linebackers coach, but that's unlikely to show up on the field (maybe they'll call fewer blitzes, which won't necessarily be a negative for the sack-prone Wilson). Above-average yards and a couple of touchdowns looks like a conservative estimate. Wilson also averages 35 rushing yards, with 1 touchdown; he's been over 40 in three of his last four. ... The team has been running the ball more, but DK Metcalf has still managed some respectable production. He's put at least 80 yards or scored in three of four, with one huge outing (10 for 177 at Philadelphia). Nobody in New York's 30th-ranked pass defense is likely to put the clamps on Metcalf. Tyler Lockett hasn't made a comparable impact, with just one game with even 70 yards since Week 3 (the 200-yard performance at Arizona). But Lockett averages 6 catches for 55 yards in his last four, with 1 touchdown, catching at least 5 passes in three of those. Not chopped liver, and another guy this secondary is likely to struggle sticking with. If Wilson is successfully connecting with those guys, David Moore probably won't do much. The No. 3 has just 21 yards, total, in the last four weeks -- an afterthought. Moore probably has two more games as the clear No. 3, with Josh Gordon eligible to return in Week 16. (Gordon isn't likely to do much either.) ... Pete Carroll says Chris Carson (foot) isn't 100 percent, so don't cut ties with Carlos Hyde in fantasy leagues just yet. But Carson looked pretty good against the Giants, with 110 total yards (65 run, 45 rec) and a touchdown. The Jets rank 11th in run defense; it's the one thing this defense has done well this year. New coordinator now, but wholescale changes to the scheme in Week 14 are unlikely. But even if Carson doesn't have big numbers running it, he's a productive receiver, averaging 29 yards in his seven full games. He's caught 27 of the 33 passes thrown his way this year. He's also an excellent scorer, with 8 touchdowns in those games. The Jets have allowed 13 rushing scores, which is average. A better matchup for the passing game, but Carson's all-around production should be fine. Hyde will likely get 30-40 percent of the work, but hasn't done much in games Carson has been healthy (averaging 25 total yards, with 1 touchdown). ... With this being a better matchup for the passing game, maybe the tight ends will be more involved. Early in the season, Greg Olsen (now injured) had games with 4, 5 and 5 receptions. But Jacob Hollister and Will Dissly are similarly involved these days. Each had 3-4 catches last week, but each averages just 19-20 yards in their last seven. Each also has only 1 touchdown. New York has allowed 11 touchdowns to tight ends, nearly as many as to wide receivers (12), and just got shredded by Darren Waller. But there's no clear favorite for production, or touchdowns. ... Jason Myers averages just over 7 kicking points; 10-plus in four of his last seven. Only five teams have allowed more field goals than the Jets (24), and no one has allowed more extra points (39). ... The Seahawks Defense is only average in takeaways (17), but ranks 7th in sacks (33). Sam Darnold is a choice matchup for both, with 9 interceptions in eight games, while taking 25 sacks (3 per contest).