INDIANAPOLIS (vs Houston)
Indianapolis was a disaster offensively early in the season, with just 8 TDs in their first five games (1-2 in each of them). But they've got it dialed in now, with 27 touchdowns in their last eight games. At least ...
... 4 TDs in half of those games. And they should keep things going here. They're at home against a defense that's allowed 42 touchdowns, including at least 3 in all but four games. ... Jonathan Taylor should have a big game. He's struggled for most of the season, but he just went for a season-high 150 yards, with 2 TDs, against a bad Raiders defense. This defense is similarly awful against the run. Strictly by the numbers, it's been even worse, allowing 152 yards per week (next-to-last). When these teams played two weeks ago, Taylor ...
This report is taken from today's Week 15 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 23 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... ran for 91 yards and caught a touchdown while averaging 7.0 yards per carry. They'll likely feed him a bunch of carries, with Taylor going for 100-plus and scoring. The Texans have allowed 17 rushing touchdowns, with all but one of their opponents scoring at least one touchdown on the ground. For the season, Taylor is averaging 63 rushing and 24 receiving yards, with 7 TDs (in 12 games). He'll be above those stat levels in this game. ... Nyheim Hines is a change-of-pace back, but given the general suckiness of this defense, he also merits consideration in larger leagues as a depth or flex option. He's averaging 21 rushing and 28 receiving yards, also with 7 TDs. ... We're not as excited about Philip Rivers. As poorly as Houston has played against the run, there's the worry that Rivers will be underused in this game. That said, he's been playing well of late, with at least 280 passing yards and 2 TDs in four straight games. And the Texans just let Mitchell Trubisky, of all people, pass for 267 yards and 3 TDs. When these teams played two weeks ago, the Colts didn't run it as much as we would have thought (just 109 yards), with Rivers passing for 285 and 2 TDs. About 260 yards and a couple of touchdowns seems like a fair estimate. Rivers can't move at all, so he won't add any value to the scoresheet as a runner. ... T.Y. Hilton is heating up. He's been a disaster for most for the season (averaging only 36 yards in his first nine games, with no touchdowns). But now Hilton's gone for at least 80 yards and a touchdown three games in a row. And this has long been the defense that Hilton tends to play his best ball against. He caught 8 passes for 110 yards and 2 TDs in the Texans game two weeks ago. ... Michael Pittman makes some sense in that he's a starting receiver playing against a bad defense. Pittman has had a solid rookie season, looking like he might develop into another JuJu Smith-Schuster -- a big receiver who can work the middle of the field. Pittman caught 7 passes for 101 yards in a game against Tennessee and 3 for 66 against the Packers, with a touchdown. But he hasn't been able to build on that. He's caught only 9 passes for 116 yards in his last three games, and he's caught just the one touchdown all year. He's caught 1 of their 16 TD passes when he's been playing. Now that T.Y. Hilton is playing well, it's looking like Pittman could be more of a backburner option for the remainder of his rookie season. ... Zach Pascal is a starter-type guy. He'll be on the field as much as Hilton and Pittman. But Pascal hasn't made much of an impact. His last touchdown came back in Week 6. In four of his last five games, he's finished with fewer than 35 receiving yards -- 1 catch for 11 yards in the earlier Houston game. ... The Colts use three tight ends, but it's hard to get excited about any of them. Trey Burton, Mo Alie-Cox and Jack Doyle have all caught 2-3 TDs this year, and they all are used sporadically. Each has gone over 25 receiving yards in only one of his last six games. Houston is lame defensively but has allowed only 5 TD passes to tight ends. In the earlier meeting, none of these guys had a notable game. ... Rodrigo Blankenship scored only 4 and 2 points in recent losses against the Ravens and Titans, but he's otherwise averaged over 10 points in his last 10 games -- just the kind of production you're hoping for from the position. The Texans don't play defense like Baltimore or Tennessee, so we're figuring Blankenship looks like a good candidate for top-5 production. He's not a power kicker (0-1 from 50-plus). Blankenship scored only 6 points against Houston a few weeks back, but the Colts in that game stupidly didn't put him on the field with a few minutes left for a chip shot that would have created a two-score lead (almost cost them the game). ... The matchup looks good enough for the Colts Defense. Heading into the last meeting between these teams it didn't look that way; Deshaun Watson had taken only 11 sacks in his last six games, with zero turnovers. But now Will Fuller is gone, the season is slipping away, and Watson has reverted to playing more like he has for the bulk of his career -- at times trying to do too much on his own (hanging onto the ball too long). He's taken 11 sacks in his last two games, with an interception and a fumble. Indianapolis has a middle-of-the-pack 28 sacks, but it should be able to get after him some. The Colts have scored a league-high 6 touchdowns on defensive and special teams plays, and only two defenses have more interceptions.