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Luck of the draw

Dolphins, Colts have benefitted from easier schedules

With only three weeks left, Strength of Schedule isn’t particularly useful drawing up expectations of what’s the come. It can, however, give us an indication of which teams have benefitted from the luck of the schedule makers thus far.

The Dolphins, most notably, have played their games against teams that have gone a combined 65-90-1 against the rest of the league. That’s played a role in Miami being 8-5. (A lot of teams would have likes to play the Jets twice this year.)

Other teams that have benefitted from easy schedules: Chargers, Packers, Saints, Seahawks. (For the Chargers, this is particularly damning – they’ve had an easy schedule and have still managed to be lousy.)

At the other end of the scale, the Ravens stand out as a third-place (in the AFC North) team that probably should be better. They’ve played by far the league’s hardest schedule. I still see them as a tough out in the postseason.

Four other teams have played their 13 games against teams that have gone a combined 87-69 in their other games: Bucs, Jets, Raiders, Broncos.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, WINS (Weeks 1-14)
TeamWLTPct
Miami65901.420
LA Chargers68871.439
Green Bay70851.452
New Orleans71841.458
Seattle71841.458
Washington71832.462
Cleveland71823.465
Indianapolis72831.465
Arizona74820.474
Pittsburgh73812.474
NY Giants73803.478
Atlanta75810.481
Detroit75810.481
Kansas City75810.481
Minnesota76800.487
Carolina77790.494
Cincinnati77790.494
Tennessee77781.497
Dallas77772.500
Jacksonville78771.503
LA Rams79761.510
Chicago81750.519
New England81750.519
Buffalo84720.538
Houston84720.538
Philadelphia85710.545
San Francisco85701.548
Denver87690.558
Las Vegas87690.558
NY Jets87690.558
Tampa Bay87690.558
Baltimore91632.590

If you prefer to look at points rather than wins, we’ve got those numbers as well.

The Colts have tended to play the softest defenses so far, with their opponents tending to allow about 26.7 points in their other games. That’s what more than any other team.

Three other teams fall just short of 26 points on average: Falcons, Jaguars, Vikings.

The 49ers have drawn the short straw in this category, way down at 22.7 points – almost a point lower than everyone else.

The Cowboys, Rams and Eagles also have tended to play against more rugged defenses.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, POINTS (Weeks 1-14)
TeamPoints
Indianapolis26.69
Atlanta25.95
Jacksonville25.94
Minnesota25.92
Miami25.33
Pittsburgh25.28
New Orleans25.24
Green Bay25.20
Kansas City25.20
Cincinnati25.14
Chicago25.12
Carolina25.06
Houston25.02
LA Chargers24.96
Washington24.92
Cleveland24.89
New England24.87
Tennessee24.78
NY Jets24.66
Detroit24.44
Las Vegas24.33
Arizona24.18
Denver24.11
Baltimore23.99
Buffalo23.99
NY Giants23.79
Tampa Bay23.79
Seattle23.74
Philadelphia23.49
LA Rams23.38
Dallas23.31
San Francisco22.69

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index