Factoid

February 12, 2021

Free agent receivers

Do receivers improve (or decline) with new teams?

A whole bunch of free agent wide receivers will soon be hitting the market, with Allen Robinson and Chris Godwin leading the way. Do these kind of receivers tend to fair better or worse when landing with new franchises?

Free agency won’t kick off for another month, but there could be plenty of pass catchers available, including not only the two Penn State guys but Kenny Golladay, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Curtis Samuel, Corey Davis, Will Fuller, Marvin Jones, Nelson Agholor, T.Y. Hilton and Sammy Watkins.

With that in mind, it makes sense to look at the general lay of the land with these kind of prospects.

In the last 20 years, there have been (by my count) 21 franchise-type receivers who have switched teams. By “franchise”, I mean players who were definitely selected to be No. 1 type receivers in the vast majority of fantasy drafts in those years.

There were two such receivers last year – Stefon Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins – and they both hit it big. Hopkins, of course, wasn’t a free agent receiver; he was traded. But for this one, I’m including all wide receivers who moved to new teams.

Looking at the group of these 21 wide receivers, slightly over half of them (12) put up better numbers in their first season with their new team. That’s using PPR scoring, and I’ve got those players in bold.

Of these 21 wide receivers, seven of them finished with top-10 numbers. All but three of them at least finished in the top 30 statistically. So with over 85 percent of these wide receivers, fantasy owners weren’t going home empty handed.

COVETED FREE AGENT WIDE RECEIVERS
Year	Player	Old	New	No	Yards	TD	PPR	Rk
2002	Terry Glenn	NE	GB	56	817	2	149.7	48
2003	David Boston	Ari	SD	70	880	7	200.0	17
2003	Peerless Price	Buf	Atl	64	838	3	165.8	28
2004	Terrell Owens	SF	Phil	77	1,200	14	281.0	6
2005	Randy Moss	Min	Oak	60	1,005	8	208.5	20
2006	Terrell Owens	Phil	Dall	85	1,180	13	281.0	2
2007	Randy Moss	Oak	NE	98	1,493	23	385.3	1
2009	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	Cin	Sea	79	911	3	188.1	25
2009	Terrell Owens	Dall	Buf	55	829	6	173.9	27
2010	Brandon Marshall	Den	Mia	86	1,014	3	205.4	22
2012	Brandon Marshall	Mia.	Chi.	118	1,508	11	334.8	2
2012	Vincent Jackson	SD	T.B.	72	1,384	8	258.4	12
2013	Wes Welker	NE	Den	73	778	10	210.8	21
2013	Danny Amendola	StL	NE	54	633	2	129.3	55
2013	Percy Harvin	Min	Sea	1	17	0	2.7	182
2014	DeSean Jackson	Phil	Was	56	1,169	6	208.9	23
2015	Brandon Marshall	Chi.	NYJ	109	1,502	14	343.2	3
2017	Brandin Cooks	N.O.	N.E.	65	1,082	7	215.2	15
2018	Brandin Cooks	N.E.	LAR	80	1,204	6	236.4	13
2020	Stefon Diggs	Min.	Buff.	127	1,535	8	328.6	3
2020	DeAndre Hopkins	Hou.	Ariz.	115	1,407	6	291.8	4

If we lower the bar a notch, looking at slightly less coveted prospects (and this is the group that most of the best 2021 guys will fit into) the results aren’t as great.

With this group, I’m subjectively looking at guys where there were some owners in many leagues who were drafting these guys with the intention of them being “starters” – top-24 wide receivers. And these receivers were at least being selected as high-level reserves in every draft.

With this group of 39, a third of them put up better numbers than the previous season (and again those players are in bold). But only 2 of these 39 finished the season with top-10 numbers.

Of this group, about half (19) finished with at least top-30 numbers. They met expectations. But almost as many (17) ranked outside the top 40 statistically – in general, they fell short.

"SECOND TIER" FREE AGENT WIDE RECEIVERS
Year	Player	Old	New	No	Yards	TD	PPR	Rk
2001	Jerry Rice	SF	Oak	83	1,139	9	250.9	12
2002	Keenan McCardell	Jac	TB	61	670	6	164.0	41
2002	Qadry Ismail	Bal	Ind	44	462	3	108.2	67
2003	Laveranues Coles	NYJ	Was	82	1,204	6	238.4	12
2004	Keyshawn Johnson	TB	Dall	70	981	6	204.1	26
2004	Joey Galloway	Dall	TB	33	416	6	110.6	56
2005	Plaxico Burress	Pit	NYG	76	1,214	7	239.4	11
2005	Santana Moss	NYJ	Was	84	1,483	9	286.3	6
2005	Derrick Mason	Ten	Bal	86	1,073	3	211.3	19
2005	Laveranues Coles	Was	NYJ	73	845	5	187.5	27
2006	Javon Walker	GB	Den	69	1,084	9	231.4	12
2006	Antwaan Randle El	Pit	Was	32	351	4	91.1	63
2006	Deion Branch	NE	Sea	53	725	4	149.5	37
2006	Donte Stallworth	NO	Phi	38	725	5	140.5	46
2006	Keyshawn Johnson	Dall	Car	70	815	5	181.5	28
2006	Nate Burleson	Min	Sea	18	192	3	55.2	101
2008	Bernard Berrian	Chi	Min	48	964	8	192.4	26
2009	Laveranues Coles	NYJ	Cin	43	514	5	124.4	57
2010	Anquan Boldin	Ariz	Balt	64	837	7	189.7	25
2010	Santonio Holmes	Pitt	NYJ	52	746	6	162.6	39
2011	Sidney Rice	Min	Sea	32	484	2	92.4	74
2011	Chad Ochocinco	Cin	NE	15	276	1	48.6	116
2012	Brandon Lloyd	StL	N.E.	74	911	5	195.1	25
2013	Anquan Boldin	Balt	SF	85	1,179	7	244.9	15
2013	Greg Jennings	GB	Min	68	804	4	172.4	34
2013	Mike Wallace	Pitt	Mia	73	930	5	196.0	26
2014	Emmanuel Sanders	Pitt	Den	101	1,404	9	295.4	5
2014	Eric Decker	Den	NYJ	74	962	5	200.2	26
2015	Jeremy Maclin	Phil.	K.C.	87	1,088	8	243.8	15
2016	Marvin Jones	Cin.	Det.	55	930	4	172.0	43
2016	Travis Benjamin	Clev.	S.D.	47	677	4	138.7	58
2017	Alshon Jeffery	Chi.	Phil.	57	789	9	189.9	21
2017	DeSean Jackson	Wash.	T.B.	50	668	3	134.8	45
2017	Pierre Garcon	Wash.	S.F.	40	500	0	90.0	75
2017	Terrelle Pryor	Clev.	Wash.	20	240	1	50.0	107
2018	Allen Robinson	Jac.	Chi.	55	754	4	154.4	40
2018	Sammy Watkins	LAR	K.C.	40	519	3	109.9	64
2019	Odell Beckham	NYG	Cle.	74	1,035	4	203.5	25
2019	Antonio Brown	Pitt.	N.E.	4	56	1	16.1	154

—Ian Allan

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