A whole bunch of free agent wide receivers will soon be hitting the market, with Allen Robinson and Chris Godwin leading the way. Do these kind of receivers tend to fair better or worse when landing with new franchises?

Free agency won’t kick off for another month, but there could be plenty of pass catchers available, including not only the two Penn State guys but Kenny Golladay, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Curtis Samuel, Corey Davis, Will Fuller, Marvin Jones, Nelson Agholor, T.Y. Hilton and Sammy Watkins.

With that in mind, it makes sense to look at the general lay of the land with these kind of prospects.

In the last 20 years, there have been (by my count) 21 franchise-type receivers who have switched teams. By “franchise”, I mean players who were definitely selected to be No. 1 type receivers in the vast majority of fantasy drafts in those years.

There were two such receivers last year – Stefon Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins – and they both hit it big. Hopkins, of course, wasn’t a free agent receiver; he was traded. But for this one, I’m including all wide receivers who moved to new teams.

Looking at the group of these 21 wide receivers, slightly over half of them (12) put up better numbers in their first season with their new team. That’s using PPR scoring, and I’ve got those players in bold.

Of these 21 wide receivers, seven of them finished with top-10 numbers. All but three of them at least finished in the top 30 statistically. So with over 85 percent of these wide receivers, fantasy owners weren’t going home empty handed.

COVETED FREE AGENT WIDE RECEIVERS
YearPlayerOldNewNoYardsTDPPRRk
2002Terry GlennNEGB568172149.748
2003David BostonAriSD708807200.017
2003Peerless PriceBufAtl648383165.828
2004Terrell OwensSFPhil771,20014281.06
2005Randy MossMinOak601,0058208.520
2006Terrell OwensPhilDall851,18013281.02
2007Randy MossOakNE981,49323385.31
2009T.J. HoushmandzadehCinSea799113188.125
2009Terrell OwensDallBuf558296173.927
2010Brandon MarshallDenMia861,0143205.422
2012Brandon MarshallMia.Chi.1181,50811334.82
2012Vincent JacksonSDT.B.721,3848258.412
2013Wes WelkerNEDen7377810210.821
2013Danny AmendolaStLNE546332129.355
2013Percy HarvinMinSea11702.7182
2014DeSean JacksonPhilWas561,1696208.923
2015Brandon MarshallChi.NYJ1091,50214343.23
2017Brandin CooksN.O.N.E.651,0827215.215
2018Brandin CooksN.E.LAR801,2046236.413
2020Stefon DiggsMin.Buff.1271,5358328.63
2020DeAndre HopkinsHou.Ariz.1151,4076291.84

If we lower the bar a notch, looking at slightly less coveted prospects (and this is the group that most of the best 2021 guys will fit into) the results aren’t as great.

With this group, I’m subjectively looking at guys where there were some owners in many leagues who were drafting these guys with the intention of them being “starters” – top-24 wide receivers. And these receivers were at least being selected as high-level reserves in every draft.

With this group of 39, a third of them put up better numbers than the previous season (and again those players are in bold). But only 2 of these 39 finished the season with top-10 numbers.

Of this group, about half (19) finished with at least top-30 numbers. They met expectations. But almost as many (17) ranked outside the top 40 statistically – in general, they fell short.

"SECOND TIER" FREE AGENT WIDE RECEIVERS
YearPlayerOldNewNoYardsTDPPRRk
2001Jerry RiceSFOak831,1399250.912
2002Keenan McCardellJacTB616706164.041
2002Qadry IsmailBalInd444623108.267
2003Laveranues ColesNYJWas821,2046238.412
2004Keyshawn JohnsonTBDall709816204.126
2004Joey GallowayDallTB334166110.656
2005Plaxico BurressPitNYG761,2147239.411
2005Santana MossNYJWas841,4839286.36
2005Derrick MasonTenBal861,0733211.319
2005Laveranues ColesWasNYJ738455187.527
2006Javon WalkerGBDen691,0849231.412
2006Antwaan Randle ElPitWas32351491.163
2006Deion BranchNESea537254149.537
2006Donte StallworthNOPhi387255140.546
2006Keyshawn JohnsonDallCar708155181.528
2006Nate BurlesonMinSea18192355.2101
2008Bernard BerrianChiMin489648192.426
2009Laveranues ColesNYJCin435145124.457
2010Anquan BoldinArizBalt648377189.725
2010Santonio HolmesPittNYJ527466162.639
2011Sidney RiceMinSea32484292.474
2011Chad OchocincoCinNE15276148.6116
2012Brandon LloydStLN.E.749115195.125
2013Anquan BoldinBaltSF851,1797244.915
2013Greg JenningsGBMin688044172.434
2013Mike WallacePittMia739305196.026
2014Emmanuel SandersPittDen1011,4049295.45
2014Eric DeckerDenNYJ749625200.226
2015Jeremy MaclinPhil.K.C.871,0888243.815
2016Marvin JonesCin.Det.559304172.043
2016Travis BenjaminClev.S.D.476774138.758
2017Alshon JefferyChi.Phil.577899189.921
2017DeSean JacksonWash.T.B.506683134.845
2017Pierre GarconWash.S.F.40500090.075
2017Terrelle PryorClev.Wash.20240150.0107
2018Allen RobinsonJac.Chi.557544154.440
2018Sammy WatkinsLARK.C.405193109.964
2019Odell BeckhamNYGCle.741,0354203.525
2019Antonio BrownPitt.N.E.456116.1154

—Ian Allan