The Jets have the No. 2 overall pick in April's draft, and early indications are they'll be selecting a quarterback with that pick. So the guy they drafted No. 3 overall in 2018, Sam Darnold, is available for trade. New York supposedly is hoping to get a second-round pick in return. Will they get it?
I was impressed by Darnold as a rookie, and I'm always interested in buying low on quarterbacks in my dynasty league. So I was considering making an offer for Darnold, with the thought he'll get free of the Jets and go on to have a nice career with another team. The problem with that line of thinking is it's very difficult to have much optimism for a turnaround. There's not a lot to recommend him.
I took a look at all the numbers, hoping there'd be something positive to hang one's hat on. Sure he's had a dearth of talent around him, and it's clear he hasn't got much positive in the way of coaching, either. But there's got to be something good there.
In fact, there really isn't. Over the last three seasons, 24 quarterbacks have attempted at least 1,000 passes. By almost any metric you want to look at -- completion percentage, passer rating, yards per attempt, touchdowns -- Darnold ranks last among those quarterbacks. He climbs all the way up to 22nd in interception percentage; thanks, Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Table sorted by passer rating, although it doesn't matter much to Darnold's placement.
| QUARTERBACK PASSING, 2018-2020 (1000-PLUS ATTEMPTS) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GS | Cmp% | Y/G | Y/A | TD | Int | TD% | Int% | Rate |
| Drew Brees | 38 | 73.2 | 260.9 | 7.89 | 83 | 15 | 6.6 | 1.2 | 113.0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 45 | 66.1 | 308.2 | 8.39 | 114 | 23 | 6.9 | 1.4 | 109.3 |
| Russell Wilson | 48 | 67.0 | 245.2 | 7.84 | 106 | 25 | 7.1 | 1.7 | 107.2 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 37 | 66.5 | 219.0 | 8.20 | 72 | 22 | 6.9 | 2.1 | 105.9 |
| Deshaun Watson | 47 | 68.7 | 273.2 | 8.32 | 85 | 28 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 104.7 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 48 | 64.8 | 265.5 | 7.53 | 99 | 11 | 5.9 | 0.7 | 104.3 |
| Kirk Cousins | 47 | 69.0 | 258.9 | 7.77 | 91 | 29 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 103.6 |
| Derek Carr | 48 | 68.9 | 254.3 | 7.71 | 67 | 27 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 98.6 |
| Dak Prescott | 37 | 66.6 | 287.6 | 7.92 | 61 | 23 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 98.6 |
| Matt Ryan | 47 | 66.9 | 297.3 | 7.55 | 87 | 32 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 97.7 |
| Philip Rivers | 48 | 67.4 | 272.8 | 7.97 | 79 | 43 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 96.6 |
| Tom Brady | 48 | 64.1 | 271.8 | 7.28 | 93 | 31 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 95.9 |
| Matthew Stafford | 40 | 65.0 | 259.0 | 7.54 | 66 | 26 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 95.8 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 33 | 65.9 | 281.3 | 6.90 | 67 | 27 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 94.0 |
| Jared Goff | 47 | 64.9 | 282.5 | 7.64 | 74 | 41 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 92.3 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 27 | 64.8 | 249.6 | 7.87 | 50 | 33 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 91.8 |
| Kyler Murray | 32 | 65.8 | 240.4 | 6.99 | 46 | 24 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 90.9 |
| Josh Allen | 43 | 61.8 | 220.6 | 7.17 | 67 | 31 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 90.4 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 38 | 65.3 | 215.8 | 6.75 | 57 | 30 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 89.8 |
| Carson Wentz | 39 | 63.5 | 249.6 | 6.74 | 64 | 29 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 89.5 |
| Baker Mayfield | 45 | 61.9 | 241.6 | 7.38 | 75 | 43 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 89.1 |
| Jameis Winston | 25 | 62.2 | 263.7 | 8.06 | 52 | 44 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 86.5 |
| Andy Dalton | 33 | 61.7 | 235.1 | 6.71 | 51 | 33 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 84.1 |
| Sam Darnold | 38 | 59.8 | 213.1 | 6.64 | 45 | 39 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 78.6 |
| Darnold Rk | Last | Last | Last | Last | 20th | Last | 22nd | Last | |
Darnold is only 23 years old, and it's not his fault the team wasted two years of his career with Adam Gase, a hire that didn't make much sense in the first place. But it's difficult to make a strong case for a turnaround. If the Jets get that 2nd-round pick (I'm guessing a 3rd that becomes a 2nd based on some reasonable condition), it will be from a team that views him as a worthwhile project to take on, competing with another quarterback, ala Josh Rosen since the Cardinals moved on. He won't be handed a starting job, and no one should be particularly confident he'll win one.
--Andy Richardson