T.Y. Hilton is headed for free agency, and I will be interested to see what kind of market there is for him. He’s been a great receiver for a lot of years, but not so much recently. That will scare off some bidders.
When Hilton is healthy and on his game (and in the right offense) he’s one of the league’s better deep threats, with the ability to get deep for long touchdowns. He’s a DeSean Jackson-type weapon. Just ask the Texans, who’ve been torched by him many times over the years.
But Hilton is a smaller receiver. He’s listed at 5-foot-10 and 183 pounds, and I don’t think he’s even that big. And he’s now well into the back half of his career; he’s 31 years old.
And Hilton hasn’t shined as brightly in recent years. The Colts brought in Frank Reich prior to the 2018 season, and he’s incorporated a lot more short, quick passes. In an effort to limit sacks, Reich wants the ball coming out of the quarterback’s hands quickly, and that tends to greatly reduce the number of big plays downfield. Hilton was also hurt last year by playing with Philip Rivers (with a declining arm, he can’t deliver deep balls like he could in the past). Hilton the previous season was working with limited Jacoby Brissett.
Witness, for example, the last two years. Hilton’s touchdowns have come from an average of only 11 yards. In the last two years, 33 wide receivers have caught at least 10 touchdowns. Hilton’s 11.3 average places him at the bottom of that group.
Hilton would be better placed as a second receiver on a team more interested in trying to push the ball downfield.
| WIDE RECEIVERS, AVERAGE DISTANCE (last 2 years) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Player | TD | Avg |
| Mecole Hardman, K.C. | 10 | 37.7 |
| Terry McLaurin, Was. | 11 | 34.5 |
| Will Fuller, Hou. | 11 | 31.8 |
| A.J. Brown, Ten. | 19 | 30.5 |
| Stefon Diggs, Min.-Buf. | 14 | 27.9 |
| Nelson Agholor, Phi.-L.V. | 11 | 27.5 |
| Tyreek Hill, K.C. | 22 | 27.1 |
| Darius Slayton, NYG | 11 | 26.8 |
| Marquise Brown, Balt. | 15 | 25.4 |
| Kenny Golladay, Det. | 13 | 25.3 |
| Diontae Johnson, Pitt. | 12 | 23.6 |
| DK Metcalf, Sea. | 17 | 22.6 |
| Michael Gallup, Dall. | 11 | 22.4 |
| DJ Chark, Jac. | 13 | 21.8 |
| DeAndre Hopkins, Hou.-Ari. | 13 | 21.1 |
| Amari Cooper, Dall. | 13 | 20.9 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt. | 12 | 20.9 |
| Cooper Kupp, LAR | 13 | 19.1 |
| Jamison Crowder, NYJ | 12 | 18.8 |
| DeVante Parker, Mia. | 13 | 16.9 |
| Chris Godwin, T.B. | 16 | 16.7 |
| Emmanuel Sanders, S.F.-N.O. | 10 | 16.0 |
| Mike Evans, T.B. | 21 | 15.7 |
| Calvin Ridley, Atl. | 16 | 15.7 |
| Keenan Allen, LAC | 14 | 15.0 |
| Marvin Jones, Det. | 18 | 14.4 |
| Tyler Lockett, Sea. | 18 | 13.9 |
| Davante Adams, G.B. | 23 | 13.6 |
| Zach Pascal, Ind. | 10 | 13.5 |
| Allen Robinson, Chi. | 13 | 13.0 |
| Adam Thielen, Min. | 20 | 12.0 |
| Cole Beasley, Buff. | 10 | 11.5 |
| T.Y. Hilton, Ind. | 10 | 11.3 |
—Ian Allan