We can’t always trust what we see in Spring Training. In addition to the obvious small-sample issues, there’s questionable competition, quirky rules, and a variety of other factors. There’s still a lot we can learn, however. Whether it’s a pitcher showing increased velocity, a player earning a more significant role, or a manager tipping his hand regarding his Opening Day batting order, there are plenty of storylines to monitor. With that in mind, here’s a list of players who have improved their fantasy stocks over the last few weeks.
Victor Robles, OF, Nationals
Robles (above) spent most of 2020 batting in the bottom third of the Nationals’ lineup, with over 70 percent of his plate appearances coming from the No. 9 spot. That’s why it’s such a big deal that he’s hit leadoff in all 14 games he’s played this spring. Every spot in the batting order is worth roughly 15 plate appearances over the course of a season, so moving from the bottom of the lineup to the top would mean more than 100 extra plate appearances. Even without any skills growth, that would boost Robles’ fantasy production across the board, including giving him an easy path to 100 runs while batting ahead of Juan Soto and Trea Turner. After gaining weight last season and unsuccessfully trying to hit for more power, Robles trimmed down over the offseason and is back to the being the player he was in 2019, when he popped 17 homers and stole 28 bases. That’s a player who should easily out-perform his current NFBC ADP, which sits at 140.9 over the last month.
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Josh Rojas, 2B, Diamondbacks
Rojas was almost completely off the fantasy radar when Spring Training began, and now it looks like he’s secured a near-everyday role with the way he’s being used this spring. In addition to getting playing time at second base, shortstop, and left field, the 26-year-old has made a strong impression at the plate, hitting .327/.383/.527 with three homers over 18 games. While Rojas hasn’t produced much in a limited big-league sample, his minor-league track record speaks to his potential. Between Double- and Triple-A in 2019, Rojas batted .332 with 25 homers and 24 stolen bases. He’s also consistently posted double-digit walk rates, giving him a boost in OBP formats. With regular playing time, most of it likely coming at second base, Rojas has worked himself into the mixed-league discussion.
Jonathan India, 2B, Reds
In one of this spring’s more interesting storylines, the Reds are experimenting with using third baseman Eugenio Suarez at shortstop. If Suarez proves he can handle the transition, that would shift Mike Moustakas to third base and open up second base for India. A former No. 5 overall pick in 2018, India has dealt with injuries in the minors and has yet to tap into his offensive potential. However, according to Kyle Glaser of Baseball America, India has been the most-mentioned player by scouts when asked who has impressed them this spring, so he’s clearly made some strides over the past year. India is batting .333/.455/.611 with four doubles and a pair of homes in 44 plate appearances this spring, and he should be on your radar as the Reds’ potential starting second baseman.
Kiki Hernandez, 2B/OF, Red Sox
Hernandez never got everyday playing time in the Dodgers’ loaded lineup, but that’s going to change in Boston. Not only has Hernandez solidified himself as the Red Sox’s starting second baseman, but he’s also entrenched himself as the team’s leadoff hitter. While Boston’s batting order may not be as dangerous as it was a couple of seasons ago, hitting ahead of J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, and Rafael Devers is still an enviable lineup position with plenty of run-scoring potential. Hernandez’s career .313 OBP doesn’t paint him as an ideal leadoff man, but it’s worth noting that he’s drawn eight walks this spring (against six Ks). He also posted a 10.8% walk rate as recently as 2018, so he has the potential to stick at the top of the lineup. Don’t sleep on Hernandez when you’re filling your middle-infield spot in the late rounds.
Mike Minor, SP, Rangers
After being drafted inside the top-150 last season, Minor is barely cracking the top-300 this March. Of course, Minor was a huge disappointment in 2020, posting a 5.56 ERA over 56.2 innings, due in part to decreased velocity. After averaging 92.6 mph on his heater in 2019, it dipped to 90.6 mph last season. The good news is that Minor has rediscovered his lost velocity this spring, as reports have him consistently hitting 94 mph on the gun. Assuming the left-hander can maintain that velocity, he’s a good bet to bounce back to the hurler who put up a 3.59 ERA with 200 whiffs in 2019. With an NFBC ADP of 294.3 since March 1, there’s plenty of profit potential here.
Emilio Pagan, RP, Padres
Since March 1, Drew Pomeranz has been the Padres’ most popular reliever, according to NFBC ADP. Mark Melancon has been second. Emilio Pagan, meanwhile, has been a distant third, being drafted roughly 287 picks after Pomeranz and 256 after Melancon. Interestingly, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports that it’s been Pagan whose name has been mentioned most often by those in the Padres organization as the potential closer. After all, Pomeranz has not pitched in a spring game since March 9 because of tightness in his left forearm, and Melancon has more walks (5) than strikeouts (3) this spring. Pagan has closing experience, saving 20 games with a 2.31 ERA and 12.3 K/9 with the Rays in 2019, so it wouldn’t be far-fetched for him to get the first crack at the job when the regular season begins.
Jose Alvarado, RP, Phillies
Alvarado posted back-to-back poor seasons in Tampa Bay where he dealt with injuries and had trouble finding the plate, demonstrated by his 8.1 BB/9 and 6.0 BB/9 in 2019 and 2020, respectively. However, the lefty has turned heads this spring, throwing six scoreless frames with 10 Ks and only one walk while consistently hitting triple digits on the gun. Alvarado has even worked himself into the closer discussion, according to The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Matt Breen. It wasn’t that long ago that Alvarado put up a 2.39 ERA with an 11.3 K/9 with the Rays in 2018, saving eight games and racking up 32 holds. At the very least, he’s worth a late-round dart as the potential ninth-inning man on a good Phillies team.
-Mike Sheets