The Bucs just won a Super Bowl, but it was primarily due to their defense and their top-5 passing game. Investing in their bottom-5 running game a year ago didn't really pay off, and it probably won't in 2021, either. If anything things might be worse.
The team recently signed Giovani Bernard, and while he's not a highly regarded veteran, Bruce Arians says Bernard will have a role in the passing game. That's not surprising with Bucs running backs comprising the league's worst backfield in terms of dropped passes a year ago. And even the passes they did catch, they didn't do much with.
Looking at yards per target for all the league's running backs a year ago, Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette were two of the most ineffective players in terms of what they did with passes thrown their way. Among all runners who saw at least 40 targets, Jones was 3rd-worst and Fournette was 6th-worst. Bernard ranked 11th among the league's running backs in that regard. He caught 80 percent of the passes thrown his way (and fair to say he wasn't working with as capable a quarterback as Jones and Fournette, especially once Joe Burrow got hurt).
| RUNNING BACK YARDS PER TARGET (40+), 2020 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Ctch% | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Y/Tgt |
| Myles Gaskin, Mia. | 87.2% | 47 | 41 | 388 | 9.5 | 2 | 8.3 |
| Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 77.6% | 107 | 83 | 756 | 9.1 | 5 | 7.1 |
| David Johnson, Hou. | 71.7% | 46 | 33 | 314 | 9.5 | 2 | 6.8 |
| Dalvin Cook, Min. | 81.5% | 54 | 44 | 361 | 8.2 | 1 | 6.7 |
| David Montgomery, Chi. | 79.4% | 68 | 54 | 438 | 8.1 | 2 | 6.4 |
| Nyheim Hines, Ind. | 82.9% | 76 | 63 | 482 | 7.7 | 4 | 6.3 |
| D'Andre Swift, Det. | 80.7% | 57 | 46 | 357 | 7.8 | 2 | 6.3 |
| Chris Carson, Sea. | 80.4% | 46 | 37 | 287 | 7.8 | 4 | 6.2 |
| Austin Ekeler, LAC | 83.1% | 65 | 54 | 403 | 7.5 | 2 | 6.2 |
| James White, N.E. | 79.0% | 62 | 49 | 375 | 7.7 | 1 | 6.1 |
| Giovani Bernard, Cin. | 79.7% | 59 | 47 | 355 | 7.6 | 3 | 6.0 |
| Chase Edmonds, Ari. | 79.1% | 67 | 53 | 402 | 7.6 | 4 | 6.0 |
| Kareem Hunt, Cle. | 74.5% | 51 | 38 | 304 | 8.0 | 5 | 6.0 |
| James Robinson, Jac. | 81.7% | 60 | 49 | 344 | 7.0 | 3 | 5.7 |
| Aaron Jones, G.B. | 74.6% | 63 | 47 | 355 | 7.6 | 2 | 5.6 |
| Antonio Gibson, Was. | 81.8% | 44 | 36 | 247 | 6.9 | 0 | 5.6 |
| Jerick McKinnon, S.F. | 71.7% | 46 | 33 | 253 | 7.7 | 1 | 5.5 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire, K.C. | 66.7% | 54 | 36 | 297 | 8.3 | 1 | 5.5 |
| Devin Singletary, Buf. | 76.0% | 50 | 38 | 269 | 7.1 | 0 | 5.4 |
| J.D. McKissic, Was. | 72.7% | 110 | 80 | 589 | 7.4 | 2 | 5.4 |
| Mike Davis, Car. | 84.3% | 70 | 59 | 373 | 6.3 | 2 | 5.3 |
| Josh Jacobs, L.V. | 73.3% | 45 | 33 | 238 | 7.2 | 0 | 5.3 |
| James Conner, Pit. | 81.4% | 43 | 35 | 215 | 6.1 | 0 | 5.0 |
| Leonard Fournette, T.B. | 76.6% | 47 | 36 | 233 | 6.5 | 0 | 5.0 |
| Tony Pollard, Dal. | 70.0% | 40 | 28 | 193 | 6.9 | 1 | 4.8 |
| Ezekiel Elliott, Dal. | 73.2% | 71 | 52 | 338 | 6.5 | 2 | 4.8 |
| Ronald Jones, T.B. | 66.7% | 42 | 28 | 165 | 5.9 | 1 | 3.9 |
| Miles Sanders, Phi. | 53.8% | 52 | 28 | 197 | 7.0 | 0 | 3.8 |
| Melvin Gordon, Den. | 72.7% | 44 | 32 | 158 | 4.9 | 1 | 3.6 |
I notice that Myles Gaskin, who rumors have the Dolphins looking to replace with an early draft pick, at the top of this list. Miami was also supposedly interested in Aaron Jones before he re-signed with the Packers. Gaskin seems kind of underrated, and a player whose value might most change after the draft, for good or ill (depending on what the team does).
Back to Tampa Bay. It remains to be seen if all three of these backs (and second-year back KeShawn Vaughn) will all be on the roster this season. If they are, they'll likely all have roles, with Bernard the favorite for work in passing situations. Should make for a crowded backfield in which different players have better production from week to week, and a difficult one to tap into in fantasy leagues.
--Andy Richardson