I’m struggling some with how to slot Calvin Ridley. Lots of different pieces in play in Atlanta, most notably Julio Jones, Kyle Pitts and Arthur Smith.
Jones is gone. He hasn’t been traded yet, but he will be. (And if they can’t find a trading partner, they’ll release him – they need to free up salary cap room.) That, in theory should result in Ridley seeing more balls. Jones is the kind of guy who’ll catch about 100 passes when he plays a full season.
Then there’s Pitts. He might become the Julio-type guy in this offense. He’s a tight end, but I’m expecting he’ll more often line up outside (like Darren Waller does with the Raiders). But Pitts will could need some time to find his feet. Tight end isn’t a position where guys tend to come in and just dominate from the get-go. (Pitts, of course, isn’t a regular tight end.)
Perhaps more important than either Jones or Pitts, the Falcons are handing the reins of the offense over to Smith. I think he’ll have a lot more of a commitment to getting their running game going than they’ve had in recent years. So the Smith hire (I think) will result in the team’s passing production dropping dramatically.
We could be looking at Ridley getting a larger share of the offense, but the overall size of the production declining.
The Falcons over the last two years have averaged 41 pass attempts per game – the most in the league. Smith’s offense in Tennessee, meanwhile, have averaged 29 pass attempts over the last two years (more than only the Ravens).
I’m thinking I’ll be lower on Ridley than most.
| PASSES PER GAME (since 2019) | |
|---|---|
| Team | Att |
| Atlanta | 41.0 |
| Tampa Bay | 39.3 |
| Dallas | 38.6 |
| LA Chargers | 38.3 |
| LA Rams | 38.2 |
| Philadelphia | 37.8 |
| Kansas City | 37.7 |
| Jacksonville | 37.7 |
| Cincinnati | 37.4 |
| Chicago | 37.3 |
| Carolina | 37.0 |
| Miami | 36.7 |
| Pittsburgh | 36.4 |
| Detroit | 36.0 |
| Arizona | 35.3 |
| NY Giants | 35.1 |
| Buffalo | 34.7 |
| New Orleans | 34.5 |
| Green Bay | 34.3 |
| Houston | 33.8 |
| Seattle | 33.8 |
| Washington | 33.8 |
| Las Vegas | 33.6 |
| Indianapolis | 33.3 |
| Denver | 33.1 |
| New England | 33.1 |
| San Francisco | 32.8 |
| Cleveland | 32.5 |
| NY Jets | 31.9 |
| Minnesota | 30.7 |
| Tennessee | 29.2 |
| Baltimore | 26.4 |
—Ian Allan