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Factoid

Christian McCaffrey

McCaffrey's upside makes him the top draft prospect

I think Christian McCaffrey makes the most sense with the No. 1 pick overall. With what he can do as both a runner and a receiver, he has the most potential to be a lot better than everyone else at his position.

McCaffrey, of course, was hurt for most of last year. He was also hurt his final season at Stanford. But I don’t consider him to be any more of a injury risk than the other top running backs – that’s just inherently a position with a lot of injuries.

Consider the following chart. It shows the very best players since the merger (over 50 years ago) and how they stacked up against other top players at their position in those years. That is, you take the top 12 players at each position, and then look at how much better the No. 1 guy is than the average of the group. And McCaffrey in 2019 graded out as the best fantasy player of the last 50 years (using PPR scoring).

The top 12 running backs in the 2019 season (including McCaffrey) averaged 293.3 PPR points that season. McCaffrey finished with 471.2 points, so he was (on average) almost 178 points better than that average.

McCaffrey was also very good in 2018, showing up 91st on this list. Finishing 91st might not seem impressive, but this is a list including four positions and 51 seasons of action. Getting on it at all is impressive.

If I have the No. 1 pick in a traditional PPR draft, it will be McCaffrey I’ll be taking.

On this list, I have put a black dot in front of the names of the other nine players from the last three years who made the top 100.

TOP 100 PLAYERS SINCE MERGER
YearPlayerYardsTDPPRTop 12Diff
2019Christian McCaffrey, Car.2,39219471.2293.3177.9
2006LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.2,34333483.3317.3166.0
1975O.J. Simpson, Buff.2,24323390.3250.3140.0
2000Marshall Faulk, St.L.2,18926459.9321.4138.5
2001Marshall Faulk, St.L.2,14721425.7287.8137.9
2016David Johnson, Ariz.2,11820413.8278.5135.3
1984Dan Marino, Mia.5,07748445.5310.4135.1
1995Emmitt Smith, Dall.2,14825426.8292.4134.4
1998Steve Young, S.F.4,62442441.9309.4132.6
2020• Travis Kelce, K.C.1,42011314.8183.3131.5
2013Peyton Manning, Den.5,44656498.8367.3131.4
1975Chuck Foreman, Min.1,76122381.1250.3130.8
1983Todd Christensen, Oak.1,24712288.7159.2129.5
2007Tom Brady, N.E.4,90452462.1332.7129.4
1999Marshall Faulk, St.L.2,42912403.9277.3126.6
1986Dan Marino, Mia.4,74344413.0287.8125.2
1990Randall Cunningham, Phil.4,40835417.5293.1124.4
1980Kellen Winslow, S.D.1,2909272.0149.5122.5
2000Tony Gonzalez, K.C.1,2039267.3145.3122.0
2011Rob Gronkowski, N.E.1,32918330.9209.1121.8
2003Priest Holmes, K.C.2,11027447.0327.4119.6
2009Chris Johnson, Ten.2,50916398.9280.0118.9
2003LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.2,39118444.1327.4116.7
1987Jerry Rice, S.F.1,12923315.9203.2112.7
2010Arian Foster, Hou.2,22018396.0283.5112.5
1994Ben Coates, N.E.1,1747255.4143.2112.2
2020• Alvin Kamara, N.O.1,68821377.8266.4111.4
2017Todd Gurley, LAR2,09319387.3276.0111.3
1986Todd Christensen, Oak.1,1538258.3147.4110.9
2002Priest Holmes, K.C.2,28724442.7332.2110.5
2004Daunte Culpepper, Min.5,12341450.5340.2110.2
1994Steve Young, S.F.4,26242413.8305.2108.5
2018• Travis Kelce, K.C.1,33610296.6188.3108.3
2011Ray Rice, Balt.2,06916376.9268.8108.1
1977Walter Payton, Chi.2,12116335.1227.1108.0
1990Warren Moon, Hou.4,90435400.0293.1106.9
2007Brian Westbrook, Phil.2,10412372.4266.0106.4
2019• Michael Thomas, N.O.1,7169374.6268.4106.2
1993Steve Young, S.F.4,43231372.1266.4105.6
1996Shannon Sharpe, Den.1,06210246.2140.9105.3
1993Jerry Rice, S.F.1,57216351.2246.1105.1
2013Jamaal Charles, K.C.1,98019382.0277.2104.8
2018• Patrick Mahomes, K.C.5,36952496.1391.4104.7
1992Emmitt Smith, Dall.2,04819377.8274.4103.4
2013Jimmy Graham, N.O.1,21516303.5201.0102.5
2006Steven Jackson, St.L.2,33416419.4317.3102.1
2007LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.1,96619367.8266.0101.8
1984James Wilder, T.B.2,24514390.7288.9101.8
2004Tony Gonzalez, K.C.1,2637270.3168.7101.6
1983Eric Dickerson, LAR2,21220392.2291.1101.1
1999Edgerrin James, Ind.2,13917377.9277.3100.6
1988Randall Cunningham, Phil.4,43230384.8284.2100.6
1992Sterling Sharpe, G.B.1,46913332.9232.8100.1
1986Jerry Rice, S.F.1,65816347.0247.0100.0
1991Thurman Thomas, Buff.2,03812337.8237.8100.0
2020• Darren Waller, L.V.1,1969282.6183.399.3
1990Jerry Rice, S.F.1,50213328.2230.697.6
1994Emmitt Smith, Dall.1,82522364.5267.597.0
2002Marvin Harrison, Ind.1,73211384.2287.496.8
2003Randy Moss, Min.1,65017378.0282.695.4
1998Terrell Davis, Den.2,22523385.5290.395.2
2014LeVeon Bell, Pitt.2,21511370.5275.694.9
2008Tony Gonzalez, K.C.1,05810261.8167.094.9
2011Drew Brees, N.O.5,56247478.4383.794.7
1983Kellen Winslow, S.D.1,1728253.2159.294.0
1999Kurt Warner, St.L.4,44542398.9305.193.8
1995Jerry Rice, S.F.1,92518420.5326.793.7
2018• Zach Ertz, Phil.1,1638280.3188.392.0
2000Daunte Culpepper, Min.4,40740421.9330.091.9
1997Barry Sanders, Det.2,35814352.8261.591.3
1991Barry Sanders, Det.1,85517328.5237.890.7
2019• Lamar Jackson, Balt.4,33343463.0373.189.8
1996Brett Favre, G.B.4,03541382.6292.789.8
1999Tony Gonzalez, K.C.84911226.9137.189.8
2007Randy Moss, N.E.1,49323385.3295.989.4
1985Roger Craig, S.F.2,06615388.6299.289.4
1993Shannon Sharpe, Den.9959234.5145.688.9
1981Kellen Winslow, S.D.1,07510255.5166.788.8
2003Tony Gonzalez, K.C.91610222.6133.988.7
2014Antonio Brown, Pitt.1,73115391.1302.588.6
1974Cliff Branch, Oak.1,09213247.2159.587.8
2004Peyton Manning, Ind.4,59549427.7340.287.4
1996Vinny Testaverde, Balt.4,36535379.7292.786.9
2011Jimmy Graham, N.O.1,31011296.0209.186.9
1995Brett Favre, G.B.4,59441408.8321.986.8
2004Antonio Gates, S.D.96413255.4168.786.7
1994Jerry Rice, S.F.1,59215363.2276.686.6
2015Devonta Freeman, Atl.1,63414320.4233.886.6
2005Antonio Gates, S.D.1,10110259.1173.685.6
2014DeMarco Murray, Dall.2,26113361.1275.685.5
2018Christian McCaffrey, Car.2,01514388.0302.885.2
1999Steve Beuerlein, Car.4,56038390.2305.185.1
2005Shaun Alexander, Sea.1,95828378.8293.885.0
2011Calvin Johnson, Det.1,69216361.2276.984.3
1985Marcus Allen, Oak.2,33014383.2299.284.0
1987Mark Bavaro, NYG8678189.7106.183.6
2015Antonio Brown, Pitt.1,86211392.2308.983.3
2018• Saquon Barkley, NYG2,02815385.8302.883.0
2012Adrian Peterson, Min.2,31413351.4268.682.8
1980John Jefferson, S.D.1,35613295.6213.582.1

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index