Fantasy Index

header banner img
OUR FANTASY BASEBALL MAGAZINE IS BACK! PRE-ORDER NOW
Win here.

Fantasy News

Fanex draft

When to pull the trigger on an elite quarterback

If Patrick Mahomes is available in the third round, do you take him? What if you knew that other top quarterbacks like Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Russell Wilson and Justin Herbert would be around three rounds later? I ran into that scenario in an ongoing draft.

This is the Fanex League.. It includes three wide receivers, a flex and PPR scoring. So it’s nice to get good pass catchers in this league, and running backs fly off the board early (hence Mahomes and Josh Allen still being around at the end of the third round).

My stat projections indicated Mahomes should be the pick at 3.09, so I selected him. Stay true to your board, they say, and my numbers suggested he was a really good value at 33rd overall. But when I made that pick, I didn’t realize I could have selected any one of those other really good quarterback in the sixth round.

Now that the draft is entering the seventh round, I can look back and decide whether that was a good idea. If we go the revisionist history route, I can look and see how I would have fared had I instead waited on a quarterback.

I selected Mahomes at 3.09 and used pick 5.09 on wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. Let’s assume that instead of going QB-WR, I went WR-QB with those two picks. What would that have looked like?

Had I taken a wide receiver at 3.09, it would have been Adam Thielen, Robert Woods or Terry McLaurin. Those were the guys I was looking at, and they all clock out at about 260 points on my board. I ended up getting Aiyuk two rounds later, and I’ve got him at 239 points, so I’m taking about 21-point loss there. That is, that wide receiver position would be 21 points stronger had I addressed it two rounds earlier.

But Mahomes is better than Brady (and all of those other quarterbacks). I’ve got Mahomes chalked out at 451 points, and that’s 60-70 points more than all of those other excellent options I listed. You can debate whether my projections for any of these players is correct, but if we’re using the numbers I settled on, the correct play was to pick Mahomes and then the wide receiver later.

We can also audit the selection of a running back in the sixth round. I thought I would get Mike Davis there, but it was instead Travis Etienne. With Etienne being a pass catcher, I think he’s a pretty solid choice in this PPR format. I’ve got both Davis and Etienne graded out for about 207 points. Had I selected a running back at 3.09, it would have been Chris Carson. Caron is projected at 241 points, so I would have been 35 points better at running back by going with Carson.

But again, Mahomes beats those other quarterbacks by about 60-70 points, so there’s more bang for your buck by going QB-RB rather than RB-QB in the 3.09 and 6.04 spots.

It’s too early for me to have a feel for these team overall, but the number checking suggest that (according to how I have the players graded) I’ve been selecting the right guys for my position in the draft.

Andy, by the way, is in the other version of the Fanex (I’m in the “American”, and he’s in the “National”). His roster construction has been similar. He also opened with two wide receivers from a similar spot (Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill), and also selected a RB and falling quarterback in the next two rounds (Chase Edmonds, Josh Allen).

FANEX DRAFT
PickPosTmPlayer
1.01RBCARChristian McCaffrey
1.02RBMINDalvin Cook
1.03RBNOAlvin Kamara
1.04RBTENDerrick Henry
1.05RBINDJonathan Taylor
1.06WRGBDavante Adams
1.07RBCLENick Chubb
1.08RBDALEzekiel Elliott
1.09WRKCTyreek Hill
1.10WRBUFStefon Diggs
1.11RBGBAaron Jones
1.12TEKCTravis Kelce
2.01RBNYGSaquon Barkley
2.02RBWASAntonio Gibson
2.03RBLACAustin Ekeler
2.04WRARIDeAndre Hopkins
2.05WRSEADK Metcalf
2.06RBCINJoe Mixon
2.07TELVDarren Waller
2.08WRTBMike Evans
2.09WRATLCalvin Ridley
2.10RBPITNajee Harris
2.11RBKCClyde Edwards-Helaire
2.12WRMINJustin Jefferson
3.01WRDALCeeDee Lamb
3.02WRLACKeenan Allen
3.03WRTENA.J. Brown
3.04RBCHIDavid Montgomery
3.05WRCHIAllen Robinson
3.06RBPHIMiles Sanders
3.07WRCARDJ Moore
3.08WRWASTerry McLaurin
3.09QBKCPatrick Mahomes
3.10QBBUFJosh Allen
3.11TESFGeorge Kittle
3.12RBSEAChris Carson
4.01QBARIKyler Murray
4.02WRLARRobert Woods
4.03RBMIAMyles Gaskin
4.04RBLVJosh Jacobs
4.05RBBALJ.K. Dobbins
4.06WRTENJulio Jones
4.07RBDETD'Andre Swift
4.08WRMINAdam Thielen
4.09RBLARDarrell Henderson
4.10WRLARCooper Kupp
4.11WRDALAmari Cooper
4.12WRTBChris Godwin
5.01TEATLKyle Pitts
5.02TEDETT.J. Hockenson
5.03WRSEATyler Lockett
5.04WRPITDiontae Johnson
5.05RBARIChase Edmonds
5.06RBCLEKareem Hunt
5.07TEBALMark Andrews
5.08QBBALLamar Jackson
5.09WRSFBrandon Aiyuk
5.10WRCINJaMarr Chase
5.11WRCINTyler Boyd
5.12RBATLMike Davis
6.01WRPITChase Claypool
6.02WRPHIDeVonta Smith
6.03WRDENCourtland Sutton
6.04RBJACTravis Etienne
6.05WRCINTee Higgins
6.06QBSEARussell Wilson
6.07QBGBAaron Rodgers
6.08QBDALDak Prescott
6.09WRCLEOdell Beckham
6.10WRCARRobby Anderson
6.11QBTBTom Brady

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index