There was a question about ADP that went by in the not-too-distant past. How reliable is it? Can we count on what’s being published at various outlets being anywhere close to what’s actually happening in drafts?
It got me thinking about the recent tournament that was held by Draft Sharks. That featured a field of 72 analysts and national contest winners competing in six 12-team leagues. That’s not a ton of leagues, but those are credible drafters. And with six leagues, there’s enough traditional picks to outweigh to few outlier-type stabs that occur.
So I took those six drafts and averaged the results. I’m not going to post a merged draft board, because the results in that kind of thing get more heavily affected by league format. This league has a superflex (increasing the value of quarterbacks relative to other players) and also gives an extra half point for receptions by tight ends. So best to focus on where players went relative to others at their positions.
I posted the results for quarterbacks on Saturday, so I won’t repeat those here. I’m going with just running backs, tight ends and wide receivers.
Keep in mind the rankings below are now a little outdated. All 32 teams have played a preseason game since the last of the six drafts, and things have change. About half of the teams in the league have at least one player who’s moved notably on my board. Most of the first-unit offenses didn’t play much over the weekend, but you see little things that affect your opinions.
I’ll start with the top 50 running backs, and these are PPR rankings. Guys I selected are in bold, and where I picked him is the first of the six numbers in the final column.
DRAFTS SHARKS INVITATIONAL (RUNNING BACKS) | ||
---|---|---|
Rk | Player | Draft positions |
1. | McCaffrey, Christian CAR | 1 1 1 1 1 1 |
2. | Cook, Dalvin MIN | 2 2 2 2 2 2 |
3. | Kamara, Alvin NO | 3 3 4 4 3 3 |
4. | Elliott, Ezekiel DAL | 7 5 3 3 4 5 |
5. | Henry, Derrick TEN | 5 4 7 5 6 4 |
6. | Jones, Aaron GB | 4 6 6 7 5 8 |
7. | Ekeler, Austin LAC | 8 7 5 6 8 7 |
8. | Barkley, Saquon NYG | 6 8 8 9 7 9 |
9. | Gibson, Antonio WAS | 9 9 10 8 10 6 |
10. | Taylor, Jonathan IND | 13 10 11 10 9 12 |
11. | Mixon, Joe CIN | 12 11 9 12 15 10 |
12. | Chubb, Nick CLE | 11 12 14 11 11 13 |
13. | Edwards-Helaire, Clyde KC | 10 14 13 14 12 11 |
14. | Harris, Najee PIT | 15 13 12 13 14 14 |
15. | Carson, Chris SEA | 16 15 15 18 17 17 |
16. | Swift, D'Andre DET | 20 19 16 16 13 15 |
17. | Dobbins, J.K. BAL | 19 17 17 17 16 16 |
18. | Montgomery, David CHI | 18 16 18 15 18 19 |
19. | Sanders, Miles PHI | 14 22 20 19 22 18 |
20. | Henderson, Darrell LAR | 23 21 19 21 19 20 |
21. | Etienne, Travis JAC | 24 20 21 20 23 21 |
22. | Jacobs, Josh LVR | 22 18 24 23 21 22 |
23. | Gaskin, Myles MIA | 17 25 25 26 20 23 |
24. | Edmonds, Chase ARI | 21 23 26 25 26 26 |
25. | Davis, Mike ATL | 28 24 23 22 25 27 |
26. | Hunt, Kareem CLE | 27 27 22 24 27 24 |
27. | Williams, Javonte DEN | 25 28 28 28 24 25 |
28. | Sermon, Trey SF | 26 26 27 27 29 29 |
29. | Carter, Michael NYJ | 29 29 31 30 28 28 |
30. | Robinson, James JAC | 31 32 33 31 30 31 |
31. | Mostert, Raheem SF | 32 30 30 34 32 32 |
32. | Harris, Damien NE | 30 31 32 32 31 36 |
33. | Gordon, Melvin DEN | 34 35 34 39 34 33 |
34. | Jones, Ronald TB | 39 36 29 37 33 35 |
35. | Pollard, Tony DAL | 37 37 38 33 36 39 |
36. | Fournette, Leonard TB | 35 33 39 29 43 42 |
37. | Dillon, AJ GB | 36 38 37 41 35 34 |
38. | Moss, Zack BUF | 43 34 35 38 37 44 |
39. | Conner, James ARI | 38 40 36 40 45 37 |
40. | Johnson, David HOU | 41 39 46 45 42 30 |
41. | Drake, Kenyan LVR | 47 43 41 36 38 38 |
42. | Edwards, Gus BAL | 40 44 43 35 44 40 |
43. | Williams, Jamaal DET | 42 41 40 42 40 43 |
44. | Murray, Latavius NO | 33 46 45 44 39 41 |
45. | Singletary, Devin BUF | 44 45 44 46 46 47 |
46. | Mattison, Alexander MIN | 45 50 48 43 41 46 |
47. | Hines, Nyheim IND | 53 42 42 49 50 48 |
48. | McKissic, J.D. WAS | 49 47 49 52 47 49 |
49. | White, James NE | 48 48 47 58 51 45 |
50. | Penny, Rashaad SEA | 51 49 50 48 53 50 |
I’m listing the top 60 wide receivers, using the averaged results of the six leagues. It’s PPR scoring. On the back half of this list, there are a number of guys who will have moved based on what they did over the weekend.
DRAFTS SHARKS INVITATIONAL (WIDE RECEIVERS) | ||
---|---|---|
Rk | Player | Draft positions |
1. | Adams, Davante GB | 1 2 2 1 1 1 |
2. | Hill, Tyreek KC | 2 1 1 2 2 2 |
3. | Diggs, Stefon BUF | 3 3 3 3 3 3 |
4. | Ridley, Calvin ATL | 4 4 5 4 4 4 |
5. | Hopkins, DeAndre ARI | 5 5 4 5 5 5 |
6. | Metcalf, DK SEA | 7 7 7 6 6 6 |
7. | Brown, A.J. TEN | 6 6 8 8 7 9 |
8. | Jefferson, Justin MIN | 9 10 6 7 10 7 |
9. | Allen, Keenan LAC | 8 8 9 9 8 8 |
10. | Lamb, CeeDee DAL | 11 9 10 10 9 10 |
11. | McLaurin, Terry WAS | 10 12 12 12 11 11 |
12. | Robinson, Allen CHI | 14 11 11 11 12 12 |
13. | Evans, Mike TB | 12 13 13 16 19 13 |
14. | Godwin, Chris TB | 17 14 14 13 16 15 |
15. | Woods, Robert LAR | 19 15 15 14 14 16 |
16. | Cooper, Amari DAL | 20 16 16 17 17 14 |
17. | Moore, D.J. CAR | 18 17 18 15 18 17 |
18. | Lockett, Tyler SEA | 21 19 19 19 13 18 |
19. | Kupp, Cooper LAR | 22 22 17 18 15 20 |
20. | Thielen, Adam MIN | 13 18 25 21 21 23 |
21. | Jones, Julio TEN | 15 20 22 20 22 25 |
22. | Johnson, Diontae PIT | 25 23 20 22 20 19 |
23. | Chase, Ja'Marr CIN | 16 24 21 24 25 24 |
24. | Higgins, Tee CIN | 23 29 23 25 23 21 |
25. | Aiyuk, Brandon SF | 28 21 24 23 27 22 |
26. | Claypool, Chase PIT | 29 28 26 28 24 26 |
27. | Beckham, Odell CLE | 30 27 27 26 28 28 |
28. | Sutton, Courtland DEN | 26 35 28 27 26 34 |
29. | Golladay, Kenny NYG | 24 30 35 32 31 33 |
30. | Jeudy, Jerry DEN | 40 26 32 30 30 27 |
31. | Anderson, Robby CAR | 31 25 33 33 35 30 |
32. | Smith-Schuster, JuJu PIT | 33 32 29 31 39 31 |
33. | Boyd, Tyler CIN | 34 31 31 36 33 32 |
34. | Shenault, Laviska JAC | 37 38 38 29 29 29 |
35. | Cooks, Brandin HOU | 32 34 37 40 32 40 |
36. | Samuel, Deebo SF | 35 37 36 35 38 35 |
37. | Brown, Antonio TB | 47 36 30 42 37 36 |
38. | Thomas, Michael NO | 27 33 42 34 47 47 |
39. | Smith, DeVonta PHI | 41 39 34 46 34 39 |
40. | Gallup, Michael DAL | 43 42 41 39 40 38 |
41. | Chark, D.J. JAC | 39 45 40 37 42 41 |
42. | Williams, Mike LAC | 38 41 39 45 43 43 |
43. | Landry, Jarvis CLE | 36 49 43 44 36 48 |
44. | Fuller, Will MIA (S) | 46 47 44 38 41 44 |
45. | Samuel, Curtis WAS | 42 58 48 55 44 37 |
46. | Moore, Elijah NYJ | 50 44 46 50 46 49 |
47. | Hardman, Mecole KC | 51 43 50 48 49 45 |
48. | Mooney, Darnell CHI | 53 48 45 47 56 46 |
49. | Brown, Marquise BAL | 45 57 47 49 45 53 |
50. | Waddle, Jaylen MIA | 52 40 52 60 50 42 |
51. | Parker, DeVante MIA | 44 50 54 43 60 62 |
52. | Pittman, Michael IND | 55 53 49 56 52 54 |
53. | Jones, Marvin JAC | 49 56 51 53 53 58 |
54. | Gage, Russell ATL | 48 60 55 51 48 63 |
55. | Davis, Corey NYJ | 59 55 59 41 59 57 |
56. | Ruggs, Henry LVR | 57 59 60 52 58 52 |
57. | Moore, Rondale ARI | 64 52 53 58 61 51 |
58. | Beasley, Cole BUF | 56 65 58 59 55 50 |
59. | Bateman, Rashod BAL | 54 62 57 76 51 55 |
60. | Davis, Gabriel BUF | 60 46 70 54 69 61 |
And closing it out with tight ends. In this league, this position gets an extra half point per reception, but I don’t think the results would be meaningful different than a regular PPR list.
Travis Kelce and Christian McCaffrey were the only players who were picked first at their position in all six leagues. At quarterback, Patrick Mahomes was picked first in four of the drafts, with Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson each picked before him in one draft. At wide receiver, Davante Adams was picked first four times, with Tyreek Hill coming in ahead of him in two leagues.
DRAFTS SHARKS INVITATIONAL (TIGHT ENDS) | ||
---|---|---|
Rk | Player | Draft positions |
1. | Kelce, Travis KC | 1 1 1 1 1 1 |
2. | Waller, Darren LVR | 2 2 2 2 2 2 |
3. | Kittle, George SF | 3 3 3 3 3 3 |
4. | Pitts, Kyle ATL | 4 6 5 5 4 4 |
5. | Hockenson, T.J. DET | 5 5 4 6 6 5 |
6. | Andrews, Mark BAL | 6 4 6 4 5 6 |
7. | Thomas, Logan WAS | 8 7 7 8 8 8 |
8. | Goedert, Dallas PHI | 7 11 10 9 7 7 |
9. | Fant, Noah DEN | 10 8 9 7 10 9 |
10. | Higbee, Tyler LAR | 12 12 8 10 9 11 |
11. | Tonyan, Robert GB | 9 10 11 11 11 12 |
12. | Smith Jr., Irv MIN | 14 9 12 12 12 13 |
13. | Gesicki, Mike MIA | 15 13 13 13 14 15 |
14. | Engram, Evan NYG | 13 16 15 15 15 10 |
15. | Smith, Jonnu NE | 16 15 14 14 13 14 |
16. | Trautman, Adam NO | 19 14 16 18 17 17 |
17. | Everett, Gerald SEA | 21 17 17 25 19 16 |
18. | Henry, Hunter NE | 17 23 18 23 16 20 |
19. | Firkser, Anthony TEN | 18 18 20 16 24 23 |
20. | Cook, Jared LAC | 20 19 21 17 22 22 |
21. | Ertz, Zach PHI | 11 22 25 22 20 24 |
22. | Gronkowski, Rob TB | 25 20 24 19 21 19 |
23. | Kmet, Cole CHI | 23 24 19 24 18 21 |
24. | Hooper, Austin CLE | 22 25 22 20 23 18 |
25. | Jarwin, Blake DAL | 24 21 23 21 26 26 |
26. | Ebron, Eric PIT | 27 26 26 26 27 25 |
27. | Hurst, Hayden ATL | 29 28 27 28 32 28 |
28. | Knox, Dawson BUF | 33 27 28 29 30 29 |
29. | Howard, O.J. TB | 28 35 29 31 31 30 |
30. | Arnold, Dan CAR | 35 30 30 27 35 27 |
—Ian Allan