DENVER (vs. NYJ)
The Broncos will win this game, but probably not with big numbers. They don't have a dynamic offense, while the Jets are better defensively than you might realize. Despite being ...
... a winless team that's turned the ball over 5 times, the Jets have allowed only 2 TDs in each of their losses. The Broncos, meanwhile, got a late 70-yard touchdown; otherwise they'd have scored only 2 TDs in each of their wins. Unlikely, we're thinking, that the Broncos put up top-10 offensive numbers in this one. More likely, we'll see middle-of-the-pack production, including 2-3 TDs from the offense. ... We'll rank the running backs a little higher than usual, but probably neither Javonte Williams nor Melvin Gordon will run wild. They'll split time. They'll probably both be on the field for about half of the team's plays, and they'll get a similar amount of touches. Gordon has more experience, perhaps making him more reliable in passing situations, while Williams is younger and more explosive. Gordon had a 70-yard run at the end of the opener, otherwise Williams has been more effective. They both carried 13 times last week, with Williams gaining twice as many yards (64-31). Gordon has caught 5 passes for 55 yards so far, compared to ...
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... only 2 for 6 for Williams. And so it goes. The matchup here isn't as tasty as you might expect. The Jets have flaws, but they'll play hard against the run. They held Damien Harris under 4 yards per carry last week. Denver's first two games have been against the Giants and Jaguars, and they haven't churned up yards consistently in either of those. ... Teddy Bridgewater is playing fine; he's thrown for 264 and 328 yards in the two games, with 2 TDs each week. But we're thinking a step back statistically here. Both of those games were against pass defenses that are really struggling. The Jets are probably a little better. They've allowed 279 and 186 passing yards in their first two, with just one touchdown pass in those eight quarters. Granted, those games were against Sam Darnold and Mac Jones. This might still be a below-average pass defense. But Bridgewater is more of a game-manager than a swashbuckling gunslinger. He's looking to take care of the ball and win the game, rather than piling up big numbers. And with New York's offensive struggles, there won't be a big need to play too aggressively. Call it an average situation for him. ... We're sticking the pass catchers in their usual kind of spots. There will be a touchdown pass or two, but they've got a lot of guys involved. Jerry Jeudy is out, but there are still plenty of other options competing for balls. Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant should catch the most passes. Sutton caught a team-high 9 for 159 yards last week, while Fant has caught 10 in two games. But KJ Hamler might be their best big-play threat; he caught an 80-yard touchdown in the preseason and dropped a 50-yard TD in Week 1. And the Broncos seem to like Albert Okwuegbunam and Tim Patrick around the goal line. Patrick was very effective in that part of the field last year, and he's opened with a touchdown in each game. Okwuegbunam has one touchdown (same as Fant) and is more than a novelty piece -- he's been on the field for more than half of their plays in both games. ... In general, Brandon McManus looks one of the top half dozen kickers for this week. The Broncos will win this game, and they also have a somewhat limited offense, with increased potential for field goals. He's kicked multiple field goals in both games, and the Jets have allowed multiple field goals in both of theirs (combined, 11 field goals in four games). ... The Broncos Defense looks very good -- almost too good. With Zach Wilson having been involved in 10 sacks and 5 interceptions in his first two games, you've got to think the Jets will be mulling whether to protect him by going with a more conservative approach -- with more checkdowns and the ball coming out quicker. For fantasy purposes, Denver's defense has been a disappointment so far, with only 3 sacks and 2 interceptions despite a plum pair of matchups (Daniel Jones, Trevor Lawrence). Diontae Spencer scored on a punt return last year and has a 25-yard return already. The Broncos will be playing without one of their big pass rushers, Bradley Chubb.