WASHINGTON (vs Kansas City)
Kansas City's defense isn't as bad as the numbers suggest. It's played against a lot of good offenses (Browns, Ravens, Chargers, Eagles, Bills). Nonetheless, ...
KC has allowed at least 29 points in all of those games, with Philadelphia scoring 3 TDs and all of the other offenses scoring 4. So this looks like a good week for Washington's offense. It's averaged 3 TDs in its last four games, and another one of those efforts should be on tap. ... Taylor Heinicke probably won't be an NFL starter at this time next year, but he's been putting up good numbers. He's averaged 300 yards (272 pass, 28 run) in the four games he's started, with 8 TDs. Another one of those kind of games could be on tap, given the production Kansas City has been hemorrhaging. This defense is allowing 309 passing yards per week, and with 10 TDs (2 per game). Best we can offer on behalf of this group is that 7 of the 10 TD passes have been ...
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... thrown by Justin Herbert and Josh Allen, who are way above Heinicke in talent. But Jalen Hurts passed for 387 yards and 2 TDs against this defense, and Baker Mayfield passed for 321. Especially with Patrick Mahomes putting up a bunch of points, Heinicke has a decent chance of putting up 300 yards. ... If you're looking for a Week 6 tight end, Ricky Seals-Jones could be your guy. Logan Thomas (hamstring) is on IR, making Seals-Jones a starter, and he's got some of the same kind of pass-catching ability. Seals-Jones back in Week 2 had a really impressive touchdown catch against the Giants. At Atlanta, they went to him in the end zone on a couple plays. And in his first start last week, he caught 5 passes for 41 yards on 8 targets. With the kind of yards and offense that should be flowing in this game, Seals-Jones looks like a decent choice for top-10 numbers. ... In general, Terry McLaurin looks like a top-10 receiver. He's the guy everything seems to flow through. He's averaging 6 catches for 80 yards per week, and he's caught 3 of their 8 TD passes. Here he's working against a struggling defense that's been torched pretty good. The run-oriented Ravens passed for only 239 yards against this defense; every other opponent has gone over 280. ... We don't see another wide receiver worth consideration. Adam Humphries is a credible slot receiver, but in five games he's caught only 14 passes for 153 yards, with no touchdowns. They haven't been able to get Dyami Brown going, and he was sidelined all of last week by a knee injury. Curtis Samuel is making $11.5 million per year, but he's week-to-week with a groin injury (hardly got on the field last week). Cam Sims also sat out last week, leaving the team relying on guys like DeAndre Carter, Dax Milne and Antonio Gandy-Golden. ... The matchup doesn't look as good for Antonio Gibson. By the numbers, Kansas City has a bottom-5 run defense, but it seems closer to average in that regard. They got ripped up pretty badly, after all, in their first two games by Cleveland and Baltimore, but those are unusual running offenses. KC has allowed an average of 100 rushing yards in its last three (with 2 TDs), and that's despite playing two quarterbacks who ran for over 40 yards each. Unlikely, we're thinking, that Washington wins this game by feeding Gibson a bunch of carries (especially with the possibility that Kansas City takes a big lead, putting Washington in catchup mode). But Gibson's average is pretty good. For the year, he's averaging 63 rushing and 24 receiving yards, with 4 TDs in five games. ... J.D. McKissic is an above-average pass-catching back, with the potential for decent depth numbers in PPR formats. He's averaged 3 catches in the four games Heinicke has started. But unlikely McKissic actually comes up big. He's averaging 11 rushing and 30 receiving yards in five games, with 2 TDs. ... Dustin Hopkins looks like a middle-of-the-pack scorer. At 2-3, Kansas City is looking to turn things around, getting back on track. That's bad. But nonetheless it's still a team with a badly flawed defense. KC has allowed double-digit kicking points in three games, while Hopkins has had three of those games himself (scoring only 3 and 4 points in his other two). ... The Washington Defense faces Patrick Mahomes, which generally means to stay away. With his mobility and arm strength, Kansas City has allowed only 7 sacks all year (tying for 3rd fewest). This defense, meanwhile, has been about the most disappointing in the league, with only 9 sacks so far (about one per game below expectations). Kansas City's normally prolific offense has been shockingly plagued by 11 turnovers (tying with Jacksonville for most in the league), but Washington doesn't look particularly likely to tap into that; it's got only 2 interceptions and 2 fumbles in its first five games.