NEW ORLEANS (vs. Dallas)
The Saints are likely switching to Taysom Hill at quarterback. They haven’t officially named him their starter, but he’s been taking reps with the first-team offense. The expectation ...
... is that he’ll be the guy, and the offense will be wildly different than what it’s been under Jameis Winston and Trevor Siemian. Under Hill, they should go to a run-dominated single-wing offense. Hill, recall, started four games last year. He averaged only 209 passing yards in those games, with 4 TDs, but he also averaged 52 rushing yards, with another 4 TDs. Glue those together in typical fantasy leagues, and those are top-10 quarterbacking numbers. One of those games last year was against a Denver team playing without a quarterback. If we set that one aside (because the Broncos were completely toothless, the Saints attempted only a few passes) then New Orleans in its other three Hill games last year averaged 157 rushing and 252 passing yards, with 5 TD runs and 4 TD passes. That might be what they’re shooting for. This week they’re at home in a Thursday night game against the Cowboys, and that ...
This report is taken from today's Week 13 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 16 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... could be the perfect team to unveil an unconventional approach against. Dallas will be operating without its head coach (for COVID reasons), and it’s a defense that’s slipped in recent weeks. The Cowboys have lost three of their last four, and the run defense has struggled in all of those games, allowing 190, 126 and 143 rushing yards, with 2 TD runs in each of them. With the way fantasy scoring systems tend to be slanted in favor of running quarterbacks, we like the idea of gambling on Hill. There’s a good chance of him running for 50-plus yards and a touchdown, and he might also throw for 220 and a score. When Hill was at quarterback last year, he scored 4 of their 9 rushing touchdowns. ... Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram both sat out last week with knee injuries, but they’re both practicing now, expected to be available on Thursday night. They’ll likely both be involved in what should be a three-headed monster of a running game (with Taysom Hill accounting for a lot of the production himself). Kamara got a lot less productive after Hill took over last year, averaging only 59 rushing and 13 receiving yards in those four games, with 3 TDs. In the 11 games Drew Brees started, Kamara scored 18 touchdowns and was on pace for over 1,000 receiving yards -- just a completely different offense. ... Probably best to stay well away from the wide receivers. They probably don’t have one who’ll be starting for any team next year. TreQuan Smith is more of a backup and situational player, and Marquez Callaway has struggled to generate separation. Deonte Harris at times seemed to have a special rapport with Trevor Siemian, but that might be gone with the quarterback change. Harris has been suspended by the league for three games after a drunk-driving case during the summer, but he should be available as he appeals that decision. Smith has caught 19 passes for 225 yards and 2 TDs in his last five games (that’s 45 yards per week). Callaway had caught touchdowns in 3 straight games prior to Thanksgiving, but the whole offense is different now. ... The Saints don’t have a viable tight end. They’ll likely use Juwan Johnson and Nick Vannett, but you can’t use either (or even both) and count on getting top-30 production at the position. Adam Trautman is likely out for the year, which should cause Johnson to get more involved (he was on the field for 42 percent of their plays last week). Johnson caught a couple of goal-line touchdowns in the opener, but he’s caught only 6 passes in their last 10 games. ... Brett Maher is handling the kicking nowadays, but he’s a modest choice. The Saints have attempted only 13 field goals all year, tying for fewest in the league. They scored only 19 in the four games Taysom Hill started last year. Maher used to play for Dallas, for whatever that’s worth. ... The Saints Defense looks like a middle-of-the-pack choice. It’s facing Dak Prescott, and he doesn’t tend to make many mistakes. He’s taken only 17 sacks in his 10 games, with 7 interceptions. New Orleans has intercepted a healthy 13 passes, but it’s recovered only 3 fumbles, tying for next to last.