CLEVELAND (vs Las Vegas)
The Browns have been hit by a COVID outbreak, with eight players leaving the team on Tuesday. That includes their leading receiver, starting tight end and two starting offensive linemen. On Wednesday, their quarterback and head coach tested positive. So what was ...
... looking like a favorable matchup is starting to look more like another lower-scoring duel. The Raiders have been bad defensively; only the Jets have allowed more points. That is, Las Vegas has allowed more points than teams such as Houston, Detroit and Jacksonville. But Cleveland has been so inept that it's fair to wonder if they'll be able to take advantage. The Browns scored 41 points in that outlier win at Cincinnati, but otherwise their offense has scored only 11 touchdowns in its last eight games. So probably just 2 TDs in this game, rather than the juicy kind of production some ...
This report is taken from today's Week 15 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 16 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
(If you're looking for help with trades or player rankings on a cumulative, season-long basis, then purchase the December 14 Fantasy Index ReDrafter Cheat Sheet, available through the store.)
Haven't ordered yet? BUY IT NOW! Already a subscriber? LOG IN!
... optimists will be hoping for. ... Nick Chubb should have a good game. He's an elite, difference-making back -- a Derrick Henry or Jonathan Taylor type talent -- and the Raiders rank only 26th in run defense. Kansas City ran for 132 yards and 3 TDs against them on Sunday, and Joe Mixon had a monster game against them a month ago. The Browns will probably feed Chubb a bunch of carries, hoping he can do those kind of things. Kareem Hunt is out with an ankle injury, so Chubb should play more than usual, probably with D'Ernest Johnson spelling him as a more lightly used version of Hunt. But Chubb will run behind a line that's missing three of its regular starters. The Browns opened the season by running for more than 150 yards in five straight games, but this isn't that team anymore. Teams are playing them differently, and the line isn't as good. Cleveland ran for 184 against Detroit, but it's run for only 99, 40 and 100 in its last three other games, with no touchdowns. So we're expecting top-10 rushing numbers here, but not league-leading, dominant stats. For the season, Chubb averages 93 rushing and 11 receiving yards, with 7 TDs in 10 games. That seems like a reasonable estimate. ... Baker Mayfield tested positive for COVID on Wednesday, so Case Keenum will start. That won't necessarily hurt the offense, with Mayfield struggling all year anyway. It's a conservative, run-oriented offense, and he'd averaged only 207 passing yards in his last 10 games, with 12 TDs. When Keenum started at Denver, he threw for 199 yards and 1 TD -- pretty similar. And at least four other offensive starters will be shelved by COVID issues. The opponent isn't anything special; the Raiders have allowed an average of 248 passing yards in their last 10 games, with 22 TD passes. But we're slotting Keenum well below that. ... Jarvis Landry landed on the COVID-19 reserve list on Tuesday. With this game being played on Saturday, there's little chance of him being available. So Donovan Peoples-Jones looks pretty certain to be Cleveland's No. 1 receiver. He's been pretty good anyway, going for 70-plus yards in four of his last six games, with 3 TDs. He's got the ability to get downfield for big plays, if Keenum can get the ball to him. They'll need some other receiver to start, and that likely will be Rashard Higgins. Higgins last year was their most effective receiver, averaging 11.5 yards per pass attempt (2nd-best in the league among the 87 wide receivers who had at least 50 targets). He was on the field for over half of their plays 13 times, and he caught 43 passes for 706 yards and 4 TDs in those games, averaging 54 yards per game -- he was better than Odell Beckham. Maybe the quarterback switch gives him a boost, since it hasn't been happening with Mayfield. Higgins has been on the field for over half of their plays in six games, and in those games he's caught only 10 of 23 pass attempts for 132 yards, with no touchdowns. So it would be wildly optimistic to toss him into a fantasy lineup, hoping for something good to happen. But the only other starter candidate is Anthony Schwartz, and he's been in the concussion protocol since Week 10. Schwartz has caught only 8 passes as a rookie. ... We're ranking David Njoku way higher than usual. Austin Hooper landed on the COVID list on Tuesday, so it's unlikely he'll be playing on Saturday. That should translate into a busier role than usual for Njoku, especially with the team short-handed at wide receiver. (This is assuming Njoku is active himself -- he got sent to the COVID list last week.) When Hooper was their solo tight end last week, he had one of his busier games, catching 5 passes for 30 yards and a touchdown. ... With the COVID issues and offensive struggles, Chase McLaughlin looks like a lesser kicker. He's averaged only 5 points in his last 10 games. ... The Browns Defense looks very good. It's got one of the better pass rushes (35 sacks), while the Raiders don't have much of an offensive line. Derek Carr is a capable veteran quarterback, but he's trying to carry an offense on his own, resulting in more miscues than he's committed in the past -- 31 sacks and 10 picks in 13 games. The Browns have scored defensive touchdowns in two of their last five games, while the Raiders have allowed such touchdowns in two of their last six.