LAS VEGAS (vs. L.A. Chargers)
This is the biggest game of the week, the only one where both teams can clinch a playoff spot with a win. It will likely be higher-scoring, with both clubs better on offense than defense. ...
... That wasn't exactly how things went back in Week 4, with the Raiders managing only 244 total yards and 2 TDs in a 28-14 loss, but the Chargers defense was playing better at the time. This defense has now allowed 3-4 touchdowns in seven of its last nine games. That’s good news for a Raiders offense that’s struggled to find the end zone, with just 14 TDs in its last nine games. ... The Chargers have struggled against the run pretty much all along. There have been games where ...
This report is taken from today's Week 18 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 16 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... they've held capable running backs from suspect offenses in check, including doing a nice job against the Broncos last week, but they've alternated those with allowing 135-plus to those same Broncos and also the Giants and Texans in the last six games. Only two teams have allowed more rushing yards (137 per game), and only three have allowed more touchdowns (20). So Josh Jacobs should be solid. On the season he's averaging just 3.9 yards per attempt, and he rushed for only 40 yards in the earlier meeting. But back then he was coming back from toe and ankle injuries that kept him out the two previous games; he's been playing hurt with one injury or another for most of the season. Even with various ailments, he's played his best ball lately, in part due to increased opportunity (with Kenyan Drake on IR). In his last six he's averaged 95 total yards (68 run, 27 rec), with 3 TDs. He's caught 52 passes (after totaling 53 the last two seasons) -- not a difference-maker like Austin Ekeler in that regard, but he's their guy. Peyton Barber and Jalen Richard combined to play almost 40 percent of the time last week, with Jacobs getting dinged-up during the game, but he returned to that one (and they combined for just 7 carries and 3 catches, compared to 16 and 4 for Jacobs). He averaged 91 total yards and scored in both games against this defense a year ago. ... The Chargers rank 12th against the pass, but it looks like a reasonable week to use Derek Carr anyway. The Raiders are simply a lot better passing the ball (7th) than running it (29th) -- not the type of offense to come out leaning too heavily on the ground game. The Chargers have allowed 25 touchdown passes, which is average; 2-3 TDs in half of their games. Good quarterbacks (Cousins, Mahomes, Burrow, Roethlisberger) all threw for at least 273 yards against this defense in the past half-season, and Davis Mills threw for 254 and 2 two weeks ago. Just 196 for Carr in the earlier loss, though he did throw 2 TDs. Better matchup for running backs, but with the way the offense is constructed, Carr should finish with solid numbers. ... Darren Waller will probably return, although that's not certain. He's missed the last five games with a knee injury and then COVID last week. He was supposedly set to return for that one, but the Raiders have downplayed his injury all along. Assuming he's practicing fully, which we'll have a better idea about Friday, too much potential not to use him. The Chargers have allowed a league-high 13 touchdowns to tight ends, one of only two teams to allow more to the position than wide receivers (9). Waller himself caught 4 passes for 50 yards and a score in the earlier meeting. If he's out, Foster Moreau benefits from the same matchup, but he's been hit or miss. Moreau put up 65-67 yards against Cleveland and Denver, but caught only 1 pass in three of his other four starts since Waller was sidelined. ... Hunter Renfrow had been dominating targets, going over 100 yards in three straight after Waller got hurt. Defenses started focusing on him, and Zay Jones has now averaged 79 yards the last three weeks, compared to 49 for Renfrow. Both will lose a few looks, assuming Waller returns, and the matchup isn't great (with the Chargers allowing only 9 TDs to wide receivers). But they'll dominate targets, with the other receivers only sporadically involved. Bryan Edwards caught a touchdown against Cleveland, but just 4 other catches in his last three games. DeSean Jackson caught 4 passes against Denver, but just 1 in each of his other 4 most recent games. Renfrow caught 6 for 45 and a touchdown in the earlier meeting. ... Daniel Carlson averages 8.3 kicking points, while the Chargers are a reasonable enough matchup, allowing 7.6. Just 2 in the earlier meeting, including a missed 52-yard field goal, but the Raiders fell behind 21-0 in that game. ... The Raiders Defense ranks in the top 10 against the pass, but that's strictly yards allowed -- not by anything particularly disruptive it's doing. Las Vegas has a below-average 32 sacks and a league-low 5 interceptions. So even though Justin Herbert has thrown 14 interceptions, the Raiders won't necessarily get any, and he's also taking under 2 sacks per game. The Raiders have an average 8 fumble recoveries, but Los Angeles has lost only 6.