It's annually the best weekend of the NFL season, and helpfully, last weekend's opening round of the playoffs set the bar really, really low. When all of the discussion centered around a quick whistle and a quarterback scramble with no timeouts, how could things not be better?
So there's the last issue of our Weekly to go by for rankings and stuff, but here are some additional, personal thoughts on the games. In general, I can see both teams winning at least three of these games, and no sure things. Without looking it up, I'm pretty sure home field in the NFL playoffs used to mean a lot more -- for years it would be a surprise if at least three of these four Divisional Round games weren't won by the home teams. Now? I'm not sure it matters too much. On to the previews.
Bengals at Titans: My uncertainty with this one has a lot to do with Derrick Henry. He's healthy and he's starting, but will he be Derrick Henry? It's a lot to ask for excellence and dominance from a guy who's been on the shelf with a foot injury since the end of October. There's no tomorrow and he's way better than D'Onta Foreman, while the Cincinnati run defense looked pretty unremarkable against the Raiders last week. But to just disregard the idea that Henry hasn't carried the ball in an NFL game for months and might have some rust to knock off doesn't seem wise.
That said, if you rostered Henry in a playoff league, I don't see how you don't use him. If you weren't going to use him here in what might be Tennessee's only postseason game, why have him? He'll start, he'll be the main runner, he'll get chances near the goal line whenever Tennessee makes it down there. Might be more of a committee than we're used to, but look at the other seven teams playing -- four of them are probably using a committee, so there aren't a lot of Henry-type players to move ahead of him. I like Cincinnati's passing game; with the way Tennessee plays defense, most of the production should come through the air. And I'm also interested in A.J. Brown and even Julio Jones, with the Bengals suspect against the pass and Tennessee probably not having its usual crushing running game. I'm 6-0 (most people are, big deal) picking games this season and I suppose this is the one that could mess things up, but I'm giving the Titans a slight edge, something like 26-23.
49ers at Packers: Ian's take on this game, I think, was that the Packers are the most likely winner this weekend. And not just his; the Vegas odds have the other three about a field goal apart, and Green Bay favored by about 5 points. Team on a mission is a fair view point. But part of that is because of the way they've disappointed in recent years. The fact that Aaron Rodgers has led the Packers to 10-14 wins in eight of the last 11 years without getting to a Super Bowl is a postseason track record about as bad as it gets. Some of that can be blamed on Mike McCarthy, who has a long history (continuing to this year) of bringing nothing extra to the table in the postseason, just watching his MVP caliber quarterbacks get his team there only to flame out. Some of that can be blamed on being the best team in a bad division year after year (no other NFC North teams are going to the Super Bowl these days either). This is a different team, but the green and gold doesn't have a recent history of postseason excellence.
But they certainly have the better quarterback in this game, and they're home and have been pretty dominant for the entire season. Two very good running backs, one of the game's best wideouts, capable defense. They're probably going to win, and I'm not picking against it. I just look at a San Francisco team that basically dominated most of the Dallas game last week, with playmakers Deebo and Kittle and a crushing running game, with a strong pass rush too, and think San Francisco will give them a game. Assuming Jimmy Garoppolo can avoid the ugly turnovers that made last week's game closer than it should have been, this is a game that should be close in the fourth quarter, competitive as the regular-season meeting was. And wind chill for this game is supposed to be minus-2, which could keep scoring down and help the 49ers. But I'm not confident San Francisco will get enough stops to win. I'll call it Green Bay 24, San Francisco 20.
L.A. Rams at Buccaneers: If you spend time at Pro Football Reference, and you should it's a great stats website, you'll see that there are nicknames listed on player pages. I'm not sure if this is like Wikipedia, where anyone can add these in, but that's my thought when I go to Tom Brady's page and see a host of nicknames that I can't believe have ever been associated with him. "The Pharaoh"? "Comeback Kid"? I've lived in the Northeast almost his entire career and have never heard either of those nicknames for him. This has nothing to do with anything, love Pro Football Reference, but it's perplexing.
As for the game, one of the reasons I went to Brady's page this morning was to confirm my memory that he's struggled in his two games against the Rams with Tampa Bay. He threw for 432 yards this season, but it was on 55 attempts in a game the Bucs fell behind 31-14 in. Last year was a closer loss (27-24) but Brady threw for just 216 yards and was intercepted twice. And now he's down a couple of his best receivers AND maybe a couple of his best offensive linemen. So I'm not counting on a Bucs win here.
In general, though, you kind of know what you're going to get with Brady. Yards and touchdowns and points will probably be there. With their injuries in the backfield and the Rams having a really good run defense, it will probably be a pass-centric game. Evans and Gronk should be very good, and I think Fournette and Bernard will be productive as receivers if not runners, it's the split that's less certain. The big question is what will the Rams offense be like? Will it be the smooth, efficient juggernaut it was the first half of the season, and against a flat and seemingly nervous Cardinals team last week? Or will it be the misfiring group that lost against a lot of the better teams it face the second half of the season, including the Titans, the Packers and San Francisco twice?
I've seen Brady win a lot more of these close, competitive games than Sean McVay and the Rams, whether it's Jared Goff or Matthew Stafford at quarterback. The fact that the Rams won't have Andrew Whitworth against the Bucs pass rush looks more significant than the Bucs maybe not having a pair of linemen, at full health anyway, against the Rams pass rush. I think the line injuries and the quality of these defenses might hold scoring down a little bit; maybe result in a few more field goals than touchdowns. I'm going with Bucs 23, Rams 20, but not with a lot of confidence.
Bills at Kansas City: This is the toughest one of the week. Kansas City is home and has the more seasoned offense. Buffalo has the better defense, a little more stability at running back these days, and seems to be on top of its game. Both won big last week over teams not nearly as good as what they're facing now, especially on offense. On paper it looks like a classic, back-and-forth slugfest. In reality, it's clear this could be one where an early mistake helps one team jump out to a two-score lead, and maybe wind up as a 34-24 game, rather than 33-30.
Josh Allen and the Bills offense have been playing at a high level for a while now. That includes making the Patriots defense look bad twice in recent weeks. Kansas City making Pittsburgh look bad in recent games is less impressive, given that lots of teams made Pittsburgh look bad. I expect the Bills offense to have good production here, and am using a few choice Bills in a competition where you can use every player just once (I'm scared to use all, since they might win).
But when push comes to shove, I don't think Buffalo will be able to stop Patrick Mahomes. Not enough pass rush, not enough key stops. I'm going with Kansas City winning a 37-31 slugfest, and in general am steering clear of what should be a running back committee -- some mix of CEH and Jerick McKinnon, with just maybe Darrel Williams getting a few snaps. Maybe.
So looking at it, I guess I've got all four home teams winning, after leading with the idea that homefield doesn't matter much these days. Hmm. But I can't find a road team I'm confident enough about to pick a win. One probably will. Congrats if you pick the right one.
Enjoy the games.