So here we are, and the game I thought might be an upset was won by the favored team about how I'd expect; the game where I thought the favorite was golden was won by the underdog (and after losing the overtime coin toss to boot). Congratulations, NFL, you got me again.
Bengals 27, Kansas City 24. Deep in the second quarter, with Kansas City up 21-3, I texted my son and said "Well, maybe the other game will be good." This one looked about as over as over gets, with Kansas City methodically moving downfield with drives of 84, 75 and 72 yards. Followed by an 80-yard drive right before the half that seemed certain, again, to result in a touchdown and a 28-10 lead.
So let's talk about exactly what happened here, since I'm sure Kansas City fans are still struggling to put it together. First, there was that last first-half drive not resulting in actual points. I was actually OK with the decision to try one more play to the end zone with 5 seconds left. There was enough time to do it, as long as the play went either into the end zone, or out of bounds. You've got veterans out there who know what they're doing. No problem. But instead Mahomes threw to Hill in the field of play, and Hill cut his route toward the goal line rather than the sideline. Veterans making a mistake that cost Kansas City three points in a game decided in overtime. Not good.
This got a little overshadowed by the fact that Kansas City didn't score any touchdowns at all from that point forward. The Bengals brought out the drop eight into coverage defense that frustrated Mahomes and the offense at time during the season. Here I figured Kansas City had beaten that strategy a while back, but not yesterday. They didn't run the ball well or enough. And worst of all, Patrick Mahomes started making mistakes. First the interception that led to Cincinnati's tying touchdown drive, turning 21-10 in 21-21 very quickly (field goal, turnover, touchdown). Then there was Mahomes continuing to run and spin out of sacks, since it had worked earlier in the game, but suddenly those plays were ending in sacks anyway, followed by punts. Then Burrow and Tee Higgins made a couple of plays, and Cincinnati led.
What followed was a drive that was being praised by Tony Romo repeatedly right up until it failed. It looked like Kansas City was going to drive the field for a game-winning touchdown while taking all the remaining time off the clock. It looked so much like it that the booth was speculating that the Bengals should just allow a touchdown, giving them time to come back and win. Except...scoring touchdowns can't be taken for granted. This is why you'll see teams sometimes "score too soon." Because you HAVE TO SCORE. Spend time thinking about scoring later, and you might not score at all. Suddenly Kansas City went from 1st and goal at the 5-yard line to attempting a 44-yard field goal. I'm not in Andy Reid's head, but if there was any thought there to not taking shots at the end zone with 2 minutes left for fear of leaving too much time, one hopes the lesson was learned. You can't assume a touchdown.
Kansas City won the toss, and I suppose most felt they'd march the field and win. But after seeing their offense struggle for an entire half, it's not shocking they didn't. The actual interception was lucky, but it was a wild, risky throw. And Mahomes really should have been picked on the previous play, already in field goal range for Cincinnati, but it was dropped. Bengals run down into field goal range. Game over.
Mahomes is great, but he came up small in the second half and overtime yesterday. So did Andy Reid and the coaching staff. Mahomes is 26 years old and has a Super Bowl ring, and there's no taking that away from him. But the fact that four straight championship games at home have resulted in one Lombardi Trophy is not something anyone can be too happy about. Two weeks from right now either Matthew Stafford or Joe Burrow will match that, on teams worse (in some cases much worse) for three of those years.
L.A. Rams 20, San Francisco 17. For most of this game, it seemed pretty clear that San Francisco was going to win. Their defense looked better. They had the clutch kicker and seemingly better pass rush. (They had the most raucous fanbase, despite the game being played in Los Angeles, for what little that's worth.) They seemed to have the psychological edge, especially after the Rams drove the field only to have an end-zone chance tipped and intercepted when Matthew Stafford tried to force one in to Cooper Kupp. And after the Rams got stopped on 2nd and 3rd and 4th and short near midfield, and the 49ers went down and Jimmy Garoppolo threw a touchdown to George Kittle to go up 17-7, it sure looked all but over.
An aside: NFL officiating has some major problems. Most annoying, to me anyway, is the simple spotting of the football. Because every spot apparently relies on a side judge running up from 10-15 yards behind the play and invariably spotting the ball a yard or two short of where it should be spotted. Of course, you have no real perspective from 10 yards behind the play, so that spot is always going to be guesswork, but it sure looks like official guesses are being instructed to be conservative rather than aggressive, every time. Is there not a sideline judge ahead of plays who can make spots? Or at least somewhat near the play? Because time and again I'd see receivers getting enough for a first down only to have the ball placed a yard short. It reached the point where I'd want first downs to be punched out by at least 2-3 yards, to ensure they'd actually be ruled first downs. I don't know if we need another official on the field or just a couple who are in better shape and can keep up with plays. Maybe everyone is paying so much attention to make sure the quarterback isn't breathed on in the backfield that they can't get up to where the play actually ends within 10 seconds of it occurring. Frustrating.
Anyway, Matthew Stafford then led the touchdown drive that they brought him in for, capped by a beautiful second TD throw to Cooper Kupp. Week after week, all season long, Kupp got open and make critical catches in key moments, and he did it again yesterday. MVP, though I know he's not going to actually win the thing, because he's just a wide receiver. There was another near touchdown pass during the game on a beautiful throw by Stafford that Ben Skowronek dropped/didn't ever really see, but how much heat are we going to put on Ben Skowronek.
After the Kupp score, Kyle Shanahan blinked. Jimmy G made a couple of nice throws, San Francisco moved to the Rams 45 with 10 minutes left. 4th and 2. He's going for it, right? He is not. 49ers punt, Rams drive into field goal range (with another huge catch by Kupp to pick up a third and 10), tie game. Why Shanahan did not pull out his best Deebo Samuel play -- maybe Samuel was still recovering from being blown up on a big hit over the middle? -- is beyond me. That was the time to keep a drive going. Not give the ball back to the Rams.
San Francisco's last two possession, around L.A.'s game-winning field goal, were brutal. Nobody really thought Garoppolo was going to drive the team into field goal range, and indeed positive plays of any kind weren't really close to happening. I'm not going to rip Jimmy, don't want Jeff Garcia to get on my case, but he is what he is and Shanahan knows it or he wouldn't have given up the farm for Trey Lance. He'd best hope he was right, or that's as close as the 49ers will get to another Super Bowl in his time with the team. (I've seen a theory that San Francisco will try to acquire Aaron Rodgers. They don't have a first-round pick until 2024, so it will be difficult to do.)
End of the day, we saw two great games, following a weekend of four great games. The NFL rules, it's the best theater in sports these days. With young quarterbacks like Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Herbert and whatever crop of stars the NFC digs up eventually (Lance and Fields? Fingers crossed...), there should be plenty of great playoff games for years to come.