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Kyler Murray

Murray apparently digging in for new contract

There could be a standoff brewing between Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. He apparently wants a new contract, and the team might not be ready to commit to him long-term with a giant contract. But at this point, it’s too early to say with any certainty what exactly is going on.

Murray after the Pro Bowl removed the Arizona Cardinals from his social media page – any mentions and all photos. Six days later, he hasn’t said why, and his agent has declined to comment. Murray potentially could be unhappy with the team – coaches, scheme, personnel, whatever. Maybe he’s simply re-branding.

Most likely it’s tied to his contract. He’s a star, and it’s time for him to get a contract more in line with his value. Having completed his third season, he’s now eligible for a contract extension, and he’s a face-of-the-franchise guy – one of the players who causes stadiums to be filled and televisions to be turned on.

Murray could be hoping for a deal in the range of what Josh Allen signed with the Bills last summer, but the Cardinals might not want to hand out one of those deals. No doubt they’ve noticed that big extensions given to Carson Wentz and Jared Goff have soured, and they’ve watched Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson play their fourth seasons without extensions.

Murray at times looks like he’s way better than Wentz, Goff and Mayfield, but Arizona might be leery of making too much of a commitment. They might still have some doubts about whether he can be an effective long-term quarterback. He’s really small (listed at 5-10 and 207, and he looks smaller), making durability a concern. And there have been some down games where it looks like opponents have figured out how to effectively defend him. Murray was a disaster in the playoff loss to the Rams, completing only 19 of 34 passes for 137 yards, with no touchdowns and 2 interceptions (including a hideous Pick Six) while running for only 6 yards.

Arizona might be mulling whether a down season in 2022 might cause them to pull the plug on Kliff Kingsbury. If they were firing Kingsbury, they might want to start fresh with both a new coach and a new quarterback.

I would think Murray’s best leverage isn’t Twitter or Instagram but baseball. If the Cardinals don’t want to offer him an extension, Murray could threaten to instead player for the Oakland A’s. That’s his ace card.

In each of the last two seasons, Murray has declined as the season has progress. Heading into Week 8 last year, Murray looked like the favorite to be the league’s MVP, with 17 TD passes versus only 5 interceptions. The Cardinals were 7-0 at the time. But Murray in his final seven games threw only 7 touchdowns, and with 7 interceptions while averaging 46 fewer passing yards per game (and also 20 fewer rushing yards per week).

In Weeks 1-7, Murray put up the 4th-best per-game quarterback numbers using standard fantasy scoring. From Week 8 on, he averaged almost 8 fewer points per game, similar per-game numbers to guys like Kirk Cousins, Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts and Taysom Hill. (And to clarify, with the second chart below, it includes playoff games – with Murray crashing and burning at SoFi.)

QUARTERBACKS: PER-GAME STATS THRU WEEK 7
PlayerStPassTDPInt RunTDRPPG
Josh Allen, Buff.52872.50.5036.3330.3
Tom Brady, T.B.63253.00.435.1429.6
Patrick Mahomes, K.C.62992.571.2931.1429.2
Kyler Murray, Ariz.62862.43.7118.4328.4
Lamar Jackson, Balt.62781.43.7169.2928.2
Jalen Hurts, Phil.62451.43.5752.7127.4
Dak Prescott, Dall.53022.67.6712.0026.9
Matthew Stafford, LAR63102.71.573.0026.7
Justin Herbert, LAC52952.33.6712.1726.3
Kirk Cousins, Min.52952.17.3310.0024.4
Joe Burrow, Cin.62792.431.146.0024.3
Derek Carr, L.V.63241.71.714.0023.5
Taylor Heinicke, Was.52561.501.1734.1723.2
Aaron Rodgers, G.B.62442.14.436.2923.1
Matt Ryan, Atl.52782.00.674.0022.7
Russell Wilson, Sea.42392.00.2014.2022.5
Sam Darnold, Car.62411.001.1416.7121.9
Jameis Winston, N.O.51862.17.5021.1721.1
Ryan Tannehill, Ten.62481.00.7120.4321.0
Trevor Lawrence, Jac.52441.171.3320.3320.9
Daniel Jones, NYG6247.71.5733.2920.8
Carson Wentz, Ind.62421.57.1414.1420.6
Teddy Bridgewater, Den.62431.71.7110.0020.0
Baker Mayfield, Clev.52461.00.5013.1718.5
Mac Jones, N.E.62541.29.866.0018.5
Jared Goff, Det.62531.14.8611.0018.3
Jimmy Garoppolo, S.F.42211.20.805.2017.6
Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.52531.17.671.0017.4
Zach Wilson, NYJ5195.671.504.0013.1
Davis Mills, Hou.4189.801.202.0012.8
Justin Fields, Chi.4149.401.0021.0011.2
QUARTERBACKS: PER-GAME STATS SINCE WEEK 8
PlayerStPassTDPInt RunTDRPPG
Josh Allen, Buff.122552.31.9253.3129.3
Patrick Mahomes, K.C.122932.31.5421.1527.1
Justin Herbert, LAC102952.181.0021.1826.8
Tom Brady, T.B.113032.08.834.0824.4
Matthew Stafford, LAR122782.151.084.1523.9
Joe Burrow, Cin.112911.75.679.1723.4
Dak Prescott, Dall.102632.00.649.1823.3
Aaron Rodgers, G.B.92632.20.106.1023.1
Kirk Cousins, Min.92452.00.506.1021.4
Justin Fields, Chi.42111.00.8056.2021.3
Jalen Hurts, Phil.8187.78.7851.5620.9
Kyler Murray, Ariz.7240.88.8838.2520.8
Taysom Hill, N.O.4184.80.8054.4020.2
Lamar Jackson, Balt.41881.201.6057.0019.9
Russell Wilson, Sea.82131.67.5613.1119.3
Ryan Tannehill, Ten.102021.361.0913.3619.0
Davis Mills, Hou.62311.57.435.0018.6
Jimmy Garoppolo, S.F.122491.23.852.1518.5
Derek Carr, L.V.102591.09.919.0018.2
Cam Newton, Car.4135.601.0042.8018.2
Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.102221.55.550.0917.8
Jared Goff, Det.62101.57.292.0017.0
Zach Wilson, NYJ7167.71.2923.5716.9
Carson Wentz, Ind.91871.60.6012.0016.9
Mac Jones, N.E.102051.36.829.0016.6
Tua Tagovailoa, Mia.72081.13.7510.1316.6
Baker Mayfield, Clev.71921.381.257.0015.8
Teddy Bridgewater, Den.6193.86.295.2915.3
Taylor Heinicke, Was.81961.11.8910.0015.2
Matt Ryan, Atl.10209.73.735.0914.4
Trevor Lawrence, Jac.10198.45.8219.0013.6

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index