The Super Bowl is tomorrow, at last. As usual, it feels like everything to be said about this game has been said. Occasionally there's a discussion of cutting down the break between the championship games and Super Bowl to one week, and it's happened in the past for one reason or another, but it's never got much traction.
One element that probably needs more discussion is that over-under (48.5). I took the over yesterday in my prop bets column, reeled in I suppose by the offensive talent on both teams, especially in the passing game, and the fact that both teams ranked in the bottom 10 defending the pass during the season. Valid points, but it should be noted that the number opened 2-3 points higher, and was bet down to 48.5 by a majority of bettors, who presumably know what they're doing (or at least bet way more than I do).
The Rams, of course, with this same head coach engaged in a 13-3 Super Bowl just three years ago. They had Jared Goff at quarterback and might have been interested in hiding him by going conservative, but their current quarterback, while more prolific, has been mistake-prone at times. With neither team loaded with players who have been here before, could be a more defensive game -- especially given the matchup of the Rams' 3rd-ranked pass rush and the league's most-sacked quarterback during the season.
With all that in mind, maybe the over-under is best avoided. This game includes recipes for an aerial battle but also a mistake-prone, more defensive- and turnover-driven game, with lots of drives ending short of the end zone and resulting in field goals or miscues. The Vegas sharps make a living on these things. If the over-under had been 48.5 for the last 20 Super Bowls, the game would have been under in exactly 10 of them. Unless you like betting on the coin flip, maybe best avoided.
Other notes:
Tyler Higbee (knee) was placed on IR yesterday, so he won't play, and Kendall Blanton will draw the start. Blanton caught 5 passes for 57 yards when Higbee was sidelined early in the AFC Championship Game; looks like a viable choice in daily competitions, where the price is right.
C.J. Uzomah (knee), in contrast, will play, as he promised he would. His other promise has gotten some attention this week: if the Bengals win he says he'll take a bath in a giant bowl of Skyline Chili. This might be a reason to root against the Bengals, I'm not sure, but regardless, Uzomah practiced fully on Friday. That reduces the appeal of Cincinnati's other tight end, Drew Sample (not that there was much) and also, I think, of Tyler Boyd, who I'd been thinking would get a few more targets if Uzomah was limited. Sounds like he'll be fine.
Darrell Henderson was activated from IR; he'll play. This gives the Rams three viable running backs, facing a run defense which was ranked 5th during the season. (Not "below-average," as the Rotoworld/NBC SportsEdge/whatever blurb that some probably saw indicated, I'm not sure what they were basing that idea on.) Like I said yesterday, I'll take the under on any prop bets involving presumed starter Cam Akers. If the numbers are low enough for both Michel and Henderson, I'd consider them. But realistically all three backs will get on the field along the way, and they'll face a run defense that's pretty good, in an offense that's emphasized the pass since forever.
Akers (shoulder), incidentally, practiced fully on Friday, as did Van Jefferson (knee). Whatever your expectations for those players need not be impacted by injury concerns.
The Rams won't have tackle Joseph Noteboom, which I've seen some reporters desperate for an angle talking about as if it significantly weakens the offensive line. Noteboom was a backup who started three games this year, including the Tampa Bay playoff game when Andrew Whitworth was hurt. Whitworth is fine; Noteboom wouldn't have played if he were available.
Somebody asked me yesterday who I'm rooting for in this game. I don't have a huge favorite in that regard. The Bengals are the underdog, which is always fun, but they've also got the second-year quarterback, while the Rams have 33-year-old Matthew Stafford and have traded away a lot of future draft picks to get to this point. So I'm inclined to root for the Rams given that Stafford is less likely to get another shot at a Super Bowl ring, and the Rams are kind of at the end of their Super Bowl window, while the Bengals are at the beginning. Conversely, getting past Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen the next decade or so seems like it will be tougher than getting to the Super Bowl in the NFC, but Burrow's done it once, so he can do it again.
I'll root for the Rams, though, and stick with my belief -- not supported by the direction of the over-under -- that though it might start out slow, it will end up as a higher-scoring game. Rams 27, Bengals 24. Enjoy the game.