There’s a standoff brewing between Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. He’s looking for a new contract, but the team isn’t ready to give it to him.
Entering the fourth year of his rookie contract, Murray is due to earn a base salary of $965,000, with a cap hit of $11.4 million when you factor in signing and roster bonuses. That looks pretty ridiculous, considering he’s been the face of the franchise for the last three years. With the salaries of the very best quarterbacks approaching $50 million, Murray is underpaid.
At the same time, Murray hasn’t done enough to merit a contract up there with the likes of Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. There are still questions whether he’s going to be a great quarterback long term. He’s tiny, making durability a concern,and his game has been dependent on his running ability, which won’t necessarily last.
The Rams and Eagles handed Jared Goff and Carson Wentz contract extensions and quickly regretted it. The Browns have been reluctant about signing up for more years with Baker Mayfield. With those cautionary tales in mind, the Cardinals may prefer to have Murray play this year under his original deal.
I would think Murray has enough leverage to get what he wants. He’s a lot better than Goff, Wentz and Mayfield. And if he declines to attend the offseason workouts, that would undermine the team’s hopes up of moving up in the rugged NFC West. And Murray could potentially explore playing with the Oakland A’s. He’s got the team over a barrel, and I would think that would allow him to land some kind of contract that will things settled down before camp opens.
As with Kliff Kingsbury, Murray thus far has tended to decline as seasons have progressed. He’s gone 17-10-1 in games played in Weeks 1-10, averaging 267 passing yards in those games, with 46 touchdowns versus 20 interceptions, and another 15 touchdowns rushing. That works out to 27.6 points per game using standard fantasy scoring.
If we look at Weeks 11 and on, Murray has gone only 6-14, averaging 221 passing yards per game, with 24 TDs and 16 interceptions. And just 5 rushing touchdowns in those games. He’s been only about 75 percent as productive in those games.
In the charts below, there are 14 games with at least 30 fantasy points, and there are 14 games with fewer than 20 points. All but two of the 30-point games came early in the year (I’ve got them in bold), while almost twice as many of the dud games came late in those seasons. (I’ve got the bad games tagged with black dots.)
| KYLER MURRAY EARLY IN THE YEAR | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Wk | Opp | Result | Yds | TDP | Int | Run | TDR | Pts |
| 2019 | 1 | DET | T 27-27 | 308 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 24.7 |
| 2020 | 1 | at SF | W 24-20 | 230 | 1 | 1 | 91 | 1 | 30.6 |
| 2021 | 1 | at TEN | W 38-13 | 289 | 4 | 1 | 20 | 1 | 38.5 |
| 2019 | 2 | • at BAL | L 17-23 | 349 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 17.9 |
| 2020 | 2 | WAS | W 30-15 | 286 | 1 | 1 | 67 | 2 | 37.0 |
| 2021 | 2 | MIN | W 34-33 | 400 | 3 | 2 | 31 | 1 | 41.1 |
| 2019 | 3 | CAR | L 20-38 | 173 | 2 | 2 | 69 | 0 | 23.6 |
| 2020 | 3 | DET | L 23-26 | 270 | 2 | 3 | 29 | 1 | 30.4 |
| 2021 | 3 | at JAX | W 31-19 | 316 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 23.7 |
| 2019 | 4 | SEA | L 10-27 | 241 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 1 | 20.8 |
| 2020 | 4 | at CAR | L 21-31 | 133 | 3 | 0 | 78 | 0 | 26.5 |
| 2021 | 4 | at LAR | W 37-20 | 268 | 2 | 0 | 39 | 0 | 25.3 |
| 2021 | 5 | • SF | W 17-10 | 239 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16.1 |
| 2019 | 5 | at CIN | W 26-23 | 253 | 0 | 0 | 93 | 1 | 28.0 |
| 2020 | 5 | at NYJ | W 30-10 | 380 | 1 | 1 | 31 | 1 | 32.1 |
| 2019 | 6 | ATL | W 34-33 | 340 | 3 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 32.2 |
| 2021 | 6 | at CLE | W 37-14 | 229 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 28.1 |
| 2020 | 6 | at DAL | W 38-10 | 188 | 2 | 0 | 74 | 1 | 30.8 |
| 2019 | 7 | • at NYG | W 27-21 | 104 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 8.0 |
| 2021 | 7 | HOU | W 31-5 | 261 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 26.1 |
| 2020 | 7 | SEA | W 37-34 | 360 | 3 | 1 | 67 | 1 | 42.7 |
| 2021 | 8 | • GB | L 21-24 | 274 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 15.8 |
| 2019 | 8 | • at NO | L 9-31 | 220 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 12.3 |
| 2019 | 9 | SF | L 25-28 | 241 | 2 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 23.5 |
| 2020 | 9 | MIA | L 31-34 | 283 | 3 | 0 | 106 | 1 | 42.8 |
| 2019 | 10 | at TB | L 27-30 | 324 | 3 | 1 | 38 | 0 | 32.0 |
| 2020 | 10 | BUF | W 32-30 | 245 | 1 | 1 | 61 | 2 | 34.4 |
| KYLER MURRAY LATE IN THE YEAR | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Wk | Opp | Result | Yds | TDP | Int | Run | TDR | Pts |
| 2019 | 11 | at SF | L 26-36 | 150 | 2 | 0 | 67 | 1 | 28.2 |
| 2020 | 11 | at SEA | L 21-28 | 269 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 23.0 |
| 2020 | 12 | • at NE | L 17-20 | 170 | 0 | 1 | 31 | 0 | 11.6 |
| 2019 | 13 | • LAR | L 7-34 | 163 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 1 | 17.0 |
| 2020 | 13 | LAR | L 28-38 | 173 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 22.2 |
| 2021 | 13 | at CHI | W 33-22 | 123 | 2 | 0 | 59 | 2 | 32.1 |
| 2019 | 14 | • PIT | L 17-23 | 194 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 17.9 |
| 2020 | 14 | at NYG | W 26-7 | 244 | 1 | 0 | 47 | 0 | 20.9 |
| 2021 | 14 | LAR | L 23-30 | 383 | 0 | 2 | 61 | 0 | 25.3 |
| 2019 | 15 | CLE | W 38-24 | 219 | 1 | 1 | 56 | 0 | 20.6 |
| 2020 | 15 | PHI | W 33-26 | 406 | 3 | 1 | 29 | 1 | 41.2 |
| 2021 | 15 | • at DET | L 12-30 | 257 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 17.2 |
| 2019 | 16 | • at SEA | W 27-13 | 118 | 1 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 13.9 |
| 2020 | 16 | • SF | L 12-20 | 247 | 0 | 1 | 75 | 0 | 19.9 |
| 2021 | 16 | IND | L 16-22 | 245 | 1 | 0 | 74 | 0 | 23.7 |
| 2019 | 17 | at LAR | L 24-31 | 325 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24.3 |
| 2020 | 17 | • at LAR | L 7-18 | 87 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4.7 |
| 2021 | 17 | at DAL | W 25-22 | 263 | 2 | 0 | 44 | 0 | 25.6 |
| 2021 | 18 | • SEA | L 30-38 | 240 | 1 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 19.5 |
| 2021 | 19 | • at LAR | L 11-34 | 137 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7.5 |
—Ian Allan