Scarcity has a few different connotations in fantasy baseball vernacular. Today's discussion will offer examples of several, with some suggested means of addressing the issue.
Positional scarcity is the most common variety. It's also currently the least concern, except at catcher. Positional scarcity has to do with the number of draft-worthy players at each position in the player pool. Each league's rules define the draft-worthy pool. In a 12-team league with two catchers, 24 catchers must be projected to earn at least $1. The caveat is, when all positions are treated equally, fewer than 24 catchers will be projected to earn at least $1. There was a time the same could be said for other positions -- notably shortstops and for a time, second baseman. However, in large part due to so many players who are eligible at multiple positions, today there are an ample number of draft-worthy players at each position -- except catcher -- to legally fill all the rosters in virtually all formats.
(continued below)
Get the Fantasy Baseball Index Cheat Sheet Update now!
Prep for your baseball draft with Fantasy Baseball Index Cheat Sheet Updates. The March 22 edition is available for immediate download, and you may pre-order future editions. Each issue includes printer-friendly cheat sheets for 12 scoring systems, depth charts, in-depth analysis of each team, and stat projections including Year 2021 games by position.
GET THE FANTASY BASEBALL INDEX CHEAT SHEET NOW!
When adjusting values for catchers, consider stats above replacement level. Let's call them "useful" stats. The concept is easiest to understand in points leagues, since the common denominator is points. In the two-catcher, 12-team league referenced above, the 24th best catcher would be worth zero useful points. If his actual projection is 100 points, then subtract 100 points from every catcher's projected total to yield useful points. Each catcher's value depends on the extra points he'll give you, relative to the 100-point catcher you could have if you settled for the "worst" (i.e. 24th) projected catcher. These 100 points are best termed "replacement points" since everyone has them. The same is done for every position, but in today's landscape, the projected points for the worst drafted player at each spot (except catcher) is essentially the same.
One of the repercussions of useful stats is the raw stat line for a catcher is worth more than the same line from any other position, because fewer replacement points are taken away. As a simple example, here is a two-team league with four players in the pool, two catcher and two outfielders. Each team needs one of each.
- Catcher A: 300 projected points
- Outfielder A: 300 projected points
- Catcher B: 100 projected points
- Outfielder B: 150 projected points
The person with the first pick should take the catcher with 300 projected points. In fact, if the top outfielder is projected for anything less than 350 points, the catcher is the top pick, even if he's projected for up to 49 fewer points.
Player pricing in our Fantasy Index Cheat Sheet Update is adjusted to ensure enough draft-worthy catchers are listed in each format. Not all fantasy drafters properly adjust their catcher values, so our catcher prices may seem high. This presents a buying opportunity if your competitors don't make the proper correction. You don't have to take advantage with the top tier, but the longer you wait, the less of a delta between the actual projected earnings (what we provide) and market expectations. That is, once you get to the low end, the actual $1, $2, and $3 catchers will sync with the market prices.
Stolen bases and saves comprise the elements of statistical scarcity in today's landscape. A plan for both is necessary with every draft and auction. Flexibility is needed, since you can't always carry out Plan A.
Ask 10 drafters how they plan on attacking steals and at least nine will indicate they want to avoid a stolen base specialist like Myles Straw, instead compiling a few here and there throughout their roster. This makes sense, but if everyone in the league has this mindset, the inventory dries up quickly, pushing up the prices of those few remaining stolen base contributors.
In a draft, it could be advantageous to rank players like Jose Ramirez (pictured above) and Bo Bichette ahead of Juan Soto and Vladimir Guerrero. Likewise, Kyle Tucker deserves a boost over similarly ranked players with less stolen base potential. The corresponding move in an auction is paying a little more than projected for a steals contributor.
Buying the discount on speed specialists is one way to zag while the league is zigging. Another is taking a chance on some late/cheap possibilities, such as Vidal Brujan, a Rays prospect likely to get another chance to impress at some point this season.
The final notion of scarcity refers to steep drops in talent at a particular position. This season, third base is the best example. The quantity is sufficient to legally fill everyone's roster, but the overall quality is lacking. The top tier has a few studs (Jose Ramirez, Rafael Devers, Manny Machado) but the ensuing tiers are not nearly as populated as usual. Even though Devers and Machado, and then Austin Riley and Nolan Arenado don't run, it is worth considering getting one of those choices and drafting speed elsewhere. Otherwise, you'll be picking from the not-so-hot corner.