I was surprised Rashaad Penny didn’t generate more interest in free agency. The Seahawks were able to re-sign him to a one-year deal worth $5.1 to $5.7 million, depending on how many games he plays.
That seems low to me, considering how well he played late last year. I’ve seen a lot of larger contracts signed by free agents who aren’t as good (in my opinion, anyway). Zay Jones, Will Dissly, Tyler Conklin and Cedrick Wilson, for example, all signed contracts averaging over $7 million.
I like Penny a lot more at $5.7 than Allen Robinson or Christian Kirk at the price tag of $15.5 to $18 million per year.
Penny spent most of the last four years either injured or stuck behind Chris Carson. But when they plugged him into the lineup late last year, he ran like a No. 1 back, running for over 130 yards in four of the five games he started. He’s a big, fast dude. He averaged a league-best 6.3 yards per carry.
The drawbacks, I suppose, would include durability and the limited track record. And note that while Penny shined late last year, three of his big games were against bad defenses. They don’t get any softer than the Texans and Lions, and the Bears were also a lesser team late in the season.
But 749 yards at 6.3 yards per attempt; that’s impressive in my book.
On this front, consider the following list. If shows all running backs in the last 50 years with at least 100 carries who averaged at least 5.6 yards per game. Take those 30 guys, then look at how they performed in their next season. (That is, when we’ve got a 6 yards per carry guy, can we safely assuming he’ll be at least decent the next year?)
The success rates on these guys isn’t as high as I would have expected. Seven of them (tagged with black dots) didn’t even average 4 yards per carry the next year.
Over half of these backs didn’t put up top-20 numbers the next year (using PPR scoring), and 13 of them didn’t even rank in the top 30. That includes J.K. Dobbins and Bo Jackson, who didn’t play at all because of injuries. Raheem Mostert also got hurt. But with Penny having had a bunch of injuries himself, I didn’t think it was fair to cherry-pick, looking only at the ones who stayed healthy.
I see one recent Seattle back on the list – Thomas Rawls – but he’s not really a fit, having suffered a serious leg injury late in his big season in 2015. Next to Rawls, I see Mike Gillislee; recall that he had his big season with the Bills, then didn’t translate into New England’s offense the next year.
These are just numbers, of course. I’m not sure where Penny will go in drafts, but I wouldn’t be opposed to selecting him.
| RUNNING BACKS AVERAGING AT LEAST 5.6 YARDS PER CARRY (the next yr) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | PPR | Rk | Previous |
| 1973 | • Franco Harris, Pitt. | 188 | 698 | 3.7 | 3 | 104.7 | 43 | 188-1055-5.6 |
| 1974 | • Mercury Morris, Mia. | 56 | 214 | 3.8 | 1 | 38.1 | 91 | 149-954-6.4 |
| 1974 | O.J. Simpson, Buff. | 270 | 1125 | 4.2 | 3 | 170.4 | 12 | 332-2003-6.0 |
| 1977 | • Don Calhoun, N.E. | 198 | 727 | 3.7 | 4 | 124.9 | 31 | 129-721-5.6 |
| 1979 | Ted McKnight, K.C. | 153 | 755 | 4.9 | 8 | 184.1 | 24 | 104-627-6.0 |
| 1985 | Hokie Gajan, N.O. | 50 | 251 | 5.0 | 2 | 53.8 | 72 | 102-615-6.0 |
| 1985 | Eric Dickerson, LAR | 292 | 1234 | 4.2 | 12 | 228.0 | 19 | 379-2105-5.6 |
| 1990 | James Brooks, Cin. | 195 | 1004 | 5.2 | 5 | 207.3 | 11 | 221-1239-5.6 |
| 1991 | Bo Jackson, Rdrs. | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 125-698-5.6 |
| 1995 | Barry Sanders, Det. | 314 | 1500 | 4.8 | 11 | 310.4 | 2 | 331-1883-5.7 |
| 1997 | Napoleon Kaufman, Oak. | 272 | 1294 | 4.8 | 6 | 257.7 | 4 | 150-874-5.8 |
| 1998 | Barry Sanders, Det. | 343 | 1491 | 4.4 | 4 | 239.0 | 11 | 335-2053-6.1 |
| 2007 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 167 | 768 | 4.6 | 9 | 217.5 | 11 | 166-941-5.7 |
| 2008 | Jerious Norwood, Atl. | 95 | 489 | 5.2 | 4 | 154.7 | 34 | 103-613-6.0 |
| 2008 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 363 | 1760 | 4.9 | 10 | 269.5 | 9 | 238-1341-5.6 |
| 2009 | • Derrick Ward, T.B. | 114 | 409 | 3.6 | 1 | 93.9 | 49 | 182-1025-5.6 |
| 2009 | DeAngelo Williams, Car. | 216 | 1117 | 5.2 | 7 | 209.9 | 16 | 273-1515-5.6 |
| 2010 | Felix Jones, Dall. | 185 | 800 | 4.3 | 1 | 185.0 | 23 | 116-685-5.9 |
| 2010 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 230 | 1467 | 6.4 | 5 | 286.5 | 4 | 190-1120-5.9 |
| 2010 | Chris Johnson, Ten. | 316 | 1364 | 4.3 | 11 | 276.9 | 6 | 358-2006-5.6 |
| 2011 | • Brandon Jacobs, NYG | 152 | 571 | 3.8 | 7 | 134.9 | 34 | 147-823-5.6 |
| 2011 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 12 | 83 | 6.9 | 0 | 20.2 | 105 | 230-1467-6.4 |
| 2013 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 279 | 1266 | 4.5 | 10 | 238.7 | 10 | 348-2097-6.0 |
| 2013 | C.J. Spiller, Buff. | 202 | 933 | 4.6 | 2 | 156.8 | 27 | 207-1244-6.0 |
| 2016 | • Thomas Rawls, Sea. | 109 | 349 | 3.2 | 3 | 75.5 | 62 | 147-830-5.7 |
| 2017 | • Mike Gillislee, N.E. | 104 | 383 | 3.7 | 5 | 70.8 | 70 | 101-577-5.7 |
| 2018 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 194 | 883 | 4.6 | 14 | 354.2 | 4 | 120-728-6.1 |
| 2020 | Raheem Mostert, S.F. | 104 | 521 | 5.0 | 2 | 101.7 | 47 | 137-772-5.6 |
| 2021 | J.K. Dobbins, Balt. | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 134-805-6.0 |
| 2021 | Nick Chubb, Cle. | 228 | 1259 | 5.5 | 8 | 217.3 | 13 | 190-1067-5.6 |
| 2022 | Rashaad Penny, Sea. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | 119-749-6.3 |
—Ian Allan