Some fantasy players cite declining stolen bas totals in MLB and rationalize, "I don't need as many. I'll find enough." While the first half is true, the second part is countered by Economics 101, supply and demand. Inventory isn't sufficient for everyone in your rotisserie league to compete in the category.
Before planning a strategy to draft ample steals, it's incumbent to understand the typical distribution of the category. Granted, each league is different, but usually, it is bunched in the middle with an increasing delta between adjacent teams at the top and bottom of the category. The same can be said for several rotisserie categories, but the differences at the ends for steals are extreme. Graphically, the category looks like a you took the top of an S and stretched it to the right.
By comparison, the usual distribution in home runs is more linear. The delta between teams at either end is still exaggerated, but not nearly as much as steals. In order to finish in the top 80 percent in the category, less budget is needed in homers. That is, it's more efficient to concentrate more of your budget on home run hitters, since it results in more points. Further, runs and RBI dovetail power hitters, further amplifying the cost benefit.
On paper, it is optimal to focus more budget on power, finishing lower in steals. The poses the additional benefit of not needing to acquire many more steals to move up, since you're still at a spot where abutting teams aren't separated by many bags. The counter-argument: Underperforming in the steals can cost you several points.
Regardless of where you opt to land in the category, a plan is required. As suggested, most aim to piece together the necessary level, collecting a few here and there, with one or two higher end -- but not elite -- contributors.
But sometimes (especially in a draft ) things don't work out. And if too many of your competitors prioritize players with the coveted power-and-speed blend, then you could be left with too few steals. Hopefully, this means you drafted an abundance of power, in which case adding a stolen base specialist will balance – not handicap -- your roster.
Here are some options to consider if you need to make up a lot of ground. All of these players fell outside of the Top-90 overall, with ADP courtesy of the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Main Event.
- Tommy Edman (ADP = 90.21): Edman is the favorite target for those devoid of early steals. He finished fourth in MLB with 30 bags last season. He doesn't walk much, but Edman's contact rate is excellent, and he has the power to pop double digit balls out of the yard. However, Edman is off to a low start in the spring, which could cost him the leadoff spot and drop him to the bottom of the order. That said, dual 2B/OF eligibility adds to his allure.
- Myles Straw (ADP = 126.79): Ask a fantasy analyst for their strategy and many will say "To avoid Myles Straw." You can count Straw's projected homers on your thumbs, but he could challenge for the league lead in stolen bases. He should remain at the top of the Guardians order with excellent defense keeping him in the lineup.
- Akil Baddoo (ADP = 139.36): Currently, Baddoo is slated to bat leadoff whenever a righthander is on the hill. Platooning keeps his price down, but he still projects for at least 20 steals with a chance at 20 homers. Drafting Baddoo requires finding another 20-plus steals guy to really make up ground, but you aren't losing much power with the pick.
- Jonathan Villar (ADP = 210.79): Villar will also hit some long balls, especially when the weather warms in Wrigley Field. While he clearly won't approach the 62 he swiped in 2016, with regular playing time he could eclipse 20 for the first time since 2019 when he bagged 40.
- Andres Gimenez (ADP = 261.07): Gimenez played well down the stretch last season and has carried the momentum over this spring as he's slashing .438/.526/.625 with a pair of bags through Tuesday's action. He's been hitting in the bottom third of the order, but that's fine relative to his cost.
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa (ADP = 312.93): There is some concern Kiner-Falefa won't run much in a Yankees so reliant on the long ball, but if he can match the 80% success rate (20-for-25) he posted last season, manager Aaron Boone could give Kiner-Falefa the green light.
- Jorge Mateo (ADP = 320.64): Mateo is a late riser in the ADP since he isn't assured of a starting job with the Orioles. However, if he cracks the opening day lineup, Mateo has the wheels to challenge for 30 bags.
- Nick Madrigal (ADP = 326.43): Madrigal only has 303 career plate appearances under his belt, but he's posted a .317 career. batting average. However, only two of his 96 career hits have left the yard. His appeal is not only 20 stolen base potential, but Madrigal can help replenish lost batting after drafting a power hitter who is a batting average drain.
- Manuel Margot (ADP = 331): Like all the Rays not names Wander Franco, Margot won't be an everyday player. However, if Kevin Kiermaier is traded, or gets hurt, Margot's playing time increases. He's an option for late speed regardless, but with a plausible pathway to more playing time, he's an idea reserve in mixed leagues.
- Victor Robles (ADP = 336.07): Nationals' manager Dave Martinez should give Robles the Willie Mays Hayes treatment and get 20 pushups every time he hits a ball in the air. The skipper stated he'd like for Robles to reclaim centerfield, but Robles is batting just 1-for-13 this spring. If he indeed is a regular, he'll likely hit at the bottom of the order, but with the universal designated hitter, it's no longer a death knell for steals in the Senior Circuit.
- Vidal Brujan (ADP = 362.5): Continuing the Major League theme, Brujan found a red card in his locker on Wednesday, and unlike Ricky Vaughn, Brujan's wasn't a prank. Still, he'll be called up at some point this summer and when he does, Brujan will be one of the best sources of steals in the league.
- Jose Siri (not drafted): Siri's chance of winning the centerfield job over Chas McCormick was already remote, but after Siri arrived late to camp with a visa issue, he'll be relegated to bench duties. This could aid a steals-deficient AL only roster, but he needs to be playing regularly to merit mixed league consideration.