The Texans have traded Deshaun Watson, but I haven’t seen any indication they have any interest in adding another quarterback. I think they’re going to give Davis Mills every opportunity to show that he can be their guy.
Mills was surprising good as a rookie. He threw 4 interceptions in his second start – a blowout loss up in Buffalo – but after that point, he was very solid. Better, arguably, than any of the five rookies chosen in the first round. Mills in his final nine starts threw 14 touchdowns versus only 5 interceptions, and he completed 70 percent of his passes in those games.
Playing around with the numbers, if we set aside the first four weeks of the season, Mills completed almost 69 percent of his passes last year. That’s more than any rookie in league history (at least among those with at least 200 pass attempts in the final three months of their first season).
Completion percentage, of course, isn’t necessarily the end-all stat. If you look at the chart below, all but one of those 21 other quarterbacks averaged more yards per completion than Mills. I take that as an indication that he was settling for more short completions, rather than taking chances downfield. And if you settle for more check-down balls, your completion percentage will be higher.
But Mills looks good so far, and it makes sense for the Texans to roll with him this season and see what happens. It would not be a surprise, I think, if Mills has a better pro career than some of those five rookie quarterbacks who were picked ahead of him last year.
| COMPLETION PERCENTAGE, ROOKIE QBs (Wk 5 on) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pct | Yards | TD | Int | Rate |
| 2021 | Davis Mills, Hou. | 68.8% | 2,307 | 14 | 5 | 96.7 |
| 2004 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 68.0% | 2,108 | 13 | 8 | 101.6 |
| 2016 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 67.7% | 2,655 | 20 | 4 | 107.5 |
| 2021 | Mac Jones, N.E. | 66.5% | 2,789 | 18 | 9 | 95.9 |
| 2012 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 65.5% | 2,524 | 22 | 6 | 109.1 |
| 2020 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 65.4% | 3,405 | 26 | 7 | 97.4 |
| 2020 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | 65.2% | 1,567 | 7 | 3 | 90.0 |
| 2019 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 65.1% | 2,651 | 16 | 8 | 91.3 |
| 2014 | Teddy Bridgewater, Min. | 64.8% | 2,452 | 14 | 12 | 84.1 |
| 2018 | Baker Mayfield, Cle. | 64.5% | 3,229 | 25 | 12 | 95.6 |
| 2020 | Tua Tagovailoa, Mia. | 64.1% | 1,814 | 11 | 5 | 87.1 |
| 2012 | Robert Griffin, Was. | 63.9% | 2,130 | 16 | 4 | 102.0 |
| 2008 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 63.8% | 2,771 | 14 | 9 | 93.2 |
| 2015 | Marcus Mariota, Ten. | 61.7% | 1,985 | 11 | 8 | 84.9 |
| 2008 | Joe Flacco, Balt. | 61.0% | 2,521 | 13 | 10 | 83.5 |
| 2019 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 60.6% | 2,449 | 21 | 10 | 86.2 |
| 2011 | Cam Newton, Car. | 60.2% | 2,665 | 16 | 12 | 84.5 |
| 2013 | Mike Glennon, T.B. | 59.8% | 2,415 | 18 | 7 | 87.1 |
| 2015 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 59.5% | 3,077 | 16 | 8 | 88.5 |
| 1983 | Dan Marino, Mia. | 58.1% | 2,120 | 18 | 6 | 94.7 |
| 1998 | Charlie Batch, Det. | 57.9% | 1,903 | 11 | 4 | 91.7 |
| 2019 | Gardner Minshew, Jac. | 57.6% | 2,366 | 14 | 5 | 85.7 |
Statistics compiled using search tools at Pro-Football-Reference.com
—Ian Allan