Ezekiel Elliott is only 26, but he seems a lot older. He sure has declined over the years, to the point where I don’t think he would be a starting running back on most NFL teams.
The career numbers are pretty telling, with him diminishing before our eyes. He’s averaged fewer rushing yards, remarkably, every season, steadily declining from 109 yards per game as a rookie, down to 59 yards per week last year.
| ZEKE: RUSHING YARDS PER GAME | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | G | Total | Pct |
| 2016 | 15 | 1,631 | 108.7 |
| 2017 | 10 | 983 | 98.3 |
| 2018 | 15 | 1,434 | 95.6 |
| 2019 | 16 | 1,357 | 84.8 |
| 2020 | 15 | 979 | 65.3 |
| 2021 | 17 | 1,002 | 58.9 |
Elliott isn’t ripping off the long runs like he did early in his career. All 4 of his touchdowns from 55-plus yards, in fact, were scored in his first two seasons.
Elliott in his first two full years (he was suspended for six games in 2017) had 14 and 11 runs of 20-plus yards. In each of the last two seasons, he’s had only 3 such runs.
| ZEKE: GAINS OF 20-PLUS YARDS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Run | Rec | Tot |
| 2016 | 14 | 3 | 17 |
| 2017 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| 2018 | 11 | 4 | 15 |
| 2019 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 2020 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 2021 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
And it used to be that whenever the Cowboys got within sniffing distance of the goal line, you knew – everyone knew – that they’d be feeding him the ball, and he’d be punching it in. In Elliott’s first four seasons, he was successful on 83 percent of carries when the Cowboys went to him needing a money yard. He’s been successful on only 67 percent of those plays over the last two years.
| ZEKE: SHORT-YARDAGE RUSHING | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Good | Att | Pct |
| 2016 | 17 | 21 | 81.0% |
| 2017 | 16 | 18 | 88.9% |
| 2018 | 19 | 26 | 73.1% |
| 2019 | 16 | 17 | 94.1% |
| 2020 | 18 | 28 | 64.3% |
| 2021 | 13 | 18 | 72.2% |
It’s never about just one guy, of course. The offensive line in Dallas isn’t as good now as it was five years ago, when it was a historic, road-grading unit. That’s been a factor. And the Cowboys played most of 2020 without their starting quarterback, setting back the entire offense.
Last year, Elliott played most of the season with a knee injury that probably would have sidelined some other backs. As with Baker Mayfield, give Elliott some credit for being willing to play hurt.
But this is pro football. Guys play hurt. Essentially every back in the league for at least some games is either less than 100 percent playing without some members of his offensive line. And in the case of Elliott, if he was so banged up, why was he logging 18 carries for 87 yards in a meaningless game in Week 18 against Philadelphia backups? That production allowed Elliott to sneak over 1,000 rushing yards (hurray?), but he carried only 12 times for 31 yards the following week, with the Cowboys losing their playoff opener.
Elliott was an elite back for a few years, but it looks pretty much over now. They’ll be spelling him with Tony Pollard plenty, I think. The cap numbers indicate that it will be next spring that they pull the plug on him entirely.
—Ian Allan